Hands that make me smile...

Happy New Years, everyone! This Bodog hand made me smile... I lost it, but it's not often where I actually have pot odds for a call going into the river *KNOWING* I'm behind...

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, December 29, 11:37:22 ET 2010
Table Emperion (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $32.45 USD ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 1.6, Hands: 324
Seat 2: Player2 ( $13.99 USD ) - VPIP: 53, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 3.3, Hands: 38
Seat 3: Player3 ( $41.10 USD ) - VPIP: 32, PFR: 12, 3B: 10, AF: 3.6, Hands: 138
Seat 4: Player4 ( $43.70 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 9
Seat 5: Player5 ( $53.10 USD ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.1, Hands: 187
Seat 6: Player6 ( $66.93 USD ) - VPIP: 45, PFR: 13, 3B: 17, AF: 1.8, Hands: 38
Seat 7: Hero ( $65.75 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2.3, Hands: 8732
Seat 8: Player8 ( $26.60 USD ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 8, 3B: 9, AF: 2.4, Hands: 90
Seat 9: Player9 ( $44.25 USD ) - VPIP: 38, PFR: 1, 3B: 0, AF: 0.8, Hands: 317
Player6 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9d 8d ]
Player8 calls [$0.50 USD]
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [$0.50 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 raises [$2.00 USD]
Player5 calls [$2.00 USD]
Player6 calls [$1.75 USD]
Hero calls [$1.50 USD]
Player8 calls [$1.50 USD]
Player2 calls [$1.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ac, 5d, 7s ]
Player6 bets [$8.00 USD]
Hero calls [$8.00 USD]
Player8 folds
Player2 folds
Player4 raises [$16.00 USD]
Player5 calls [$16.00 USD]
Player6 calls [$8.00 USD]
Hero calls [$8.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
Player6 checks
Hero checks
Player4 bets [$25.70 USD]
Player5 raises [$35.10 USD]
Player6 calls [$35.10 USD]
Hero calls [$35.10 USD] <-- With *THIS* much money in the pot, I think I actually get odds to make the river call based on equity. I have 8 outs up & down; 20% equity vs. 17% pot odds.
** Dealing River ** [ 2c ]
Player6 bets [$13.83 USD]
Hero folds
Player6 wins $13.83 USD
Player4 shows [Ah, Kd ]
Player5 shows [7c, 7d ]
Player6 shows [5c, 5h ]
Player5 wins $27.79 USD from main pot
Player5 wins $176.21 USD from main pot

Hands that piss me off...

Bodog Hand History, so no stats readily available, though this hand truly speaks for itself...

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, December 29, 11:38:10 ET 2010
Table Onit (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $27.35 USD )
Seat 2: Player2 ( $50.30 USD )
Seat 3: Player3 ( $49.95 USD )
Seat 4: Player4 ( $61.65 USD )
Seat 6: Player6 ( $22.25 USD )
Seat 7: Hero ( $96.45 USD )
Seat 8: Player8 ( $72.60 USD )
Seat 9: Player9 ( $23.54 USD )
Hero posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Player8 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh Ah ]
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [$0.50 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$2.50 USD]
Player8 folds
Player2 calls [$2.25 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, As, 7c ]
Hero bets [$3.25 USD]
Player2 calls [$3.25 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
Hero checks
Player2 bets [$6.25 USD]
Hero calls [$6.25 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
Hero checks
Player2 checks
Hero shows [Jh, Ah ]
Player2 shows [2c, Ac ]
Player2 wins $23.75 USD from main pot

Really? Betting the draw but checking the second nuts? I love Bodonkeys!

What would you do? #213 - WTF?

Lately, I've felt like I'm on the road to Missing Floppsville. Have you ever been there? It seems that I have totally decent pieces of the flop, as evidenced below, but nowhere near strong enough to call a stack off. I'm getting raised constantly when my TPTK should be good, and I'm getting smacked by the variance tree. WTF?

Anyway, what do you think about the hand below?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $50.00 - 18/13 / 4.3% 3bet / 33% steal / 1.3AF @ 485 hands
Hero (MP1): $83.40
MP2: $34.25
CO: $20.95
BTN: $39.15
SB: $62.65
BB: $50.00
UTG: $68.30 - 63/38 / 3.0 AF / 8 hands
UTG+1: $18.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with As Ah
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $3, UTG+1 calls $3, UTG+2 calls $3

Flop: ($14.75) Qd 4c 8c (4 players)
UTG bets $7, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $46.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds, UTG folds

Final Pot: $28.75
UTG+2 wins $27.35
(Rake: $1.40)

What would you do? #212 - Flopped second nut flush facing river raise

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $76.55 - 17/10 / 3.6%3bet / 45% steal / 2.8AF  @ 97 hands
MP2: $50.00
CO: $54.00
BTN: $36.10
Hero (SB): $69.00
BB: $50.75
UTG: $67.10
UTG+1: $24.25
UTG+2: $25.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Kc 9c
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Call with a pump or dump hand.  Easy to get away from, but this player has been fairly active in very recent hands.  Also, we're a little deep, so I feel comfortable with the speculative call.

Flop: ($4.50) Tc Qc 6c (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $2, Hero calls $2, BB folds
Can you say "Yahtzee?"

Turn: ($8.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
Bummer.  He missed the flop entirely.  Suckage.

River: ($8.50) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, MP1 raises to $20.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Okay.  Ace completes quite a few hands - mainly AK.  I lead, expecting a call behind to get a little value on my hand and am greeted with a nice raise.  What do you make of it?



Click to see results

I waffled back & forth between a call or a shove. He seems to be *VERY* interested in this Ace. Given the raise, I can put him on a few hands that beat me, but nothing likely - AcKc, AcQc are obviously not possible. All other AcXc hands are, though, but again, none seem too likely. Sets are clearly possible - particularly rivered set of Aces. However, isn't a set reduced to bluff catcher at this point? Then, I considered the line I took - I have a very concealed flopped flush, and he's not likely to believe that I waited until the river to get value out of it. Therefore I shove and am insta-called by the nut straight :-). GG sir!
Hero raises to $65.50 all in, MP1 calls $45.25

Final Pot: $139.50
MP1 mucks Kh Jc
Hero shows Kc 9c (a flush, King high)
Hero wins $136.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Trip to London, anyone?

I booked my trip to London last week.  I'm going to be arriving at Heathrow at 10pm, January 16th, and leaving at around 4:00pm, January 22.  I'm staying near Farnborough, so it'll be annoying to get to London during the week, but I'm going to try.  Anyone interested in meeting up in one of the London casinos?  I'm planning on going Thursday night, as a minimum.  I'll have a car.

Any of my British readers interested?  HappyPixel, I know you're across the pond...

What would you do? #211 - Snap fold turned TPTK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $99.55 - 14/10 / 7.6%3bet / 20%steal / 10% squeeze attempt / 4.0 AF / 56% lead flop @ 205 hands
MP2: $46.75
CO: $81.15
BTN: $78.25 - 24/5 /0%3bet / 10% steal / 0% squeeze / 0.8 AF / 0% lead flop @ 133 hands
SB: $127.25
BB: $50.00
Hero (UTG): $51.75
UTG+1: $19.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Qh Ac
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 9d 6s 3h (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($5.25) Qs (3 players)
Hero bets $2.75, MP1 raises to $7.50, BTN calls $7.50, Hero ???
A little more detail on MP1:  From the 205 hands I have,  here is his positional AF:

Click to see results

Hero folds

This was SUCH A SNAP fold, it wasn't even funny. What other hands can a 14/10 hand who checks the flop, but suddenly wants stacks, or is trying to get the pot pumped by the turn? Baluga much?

River: ($23.00) 6d (2 players)
MP1 requests TIME, MP1 bets $30, BTN calls $30

Final Pot: $83.00
MP1 shows 9c 9s (a full house, Nines full of Sixes)
BTN mucks Qc Ad
MP1 wins $80.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #210 - Limped Trip Aces facing raise

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $58.45 - 15/12 / 2.6%3bet / 29% steal / 1.9 AF @ 472 hands
Hero (BB): $77.85
UTG: $67.90
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $23.00
MP1: $48.10 - 40/0/ 0%3bet / 0% steal / 0.2 AF @ 124 hands
MP2: $30.00 - 70/0/ 0%3bet / 0% steal / inf AF @ 10 hands
CO: $46.90
BTN: $50.60 - 15/13 / 9.7%3bet / 29% steal / 6.5 AF @ 656 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 3c Ah
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks

Flop: ($3.00) 8h As Ac (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($3.00) 4d (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $3.50, MP2 folds, BTN raises to $11, SB folds, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP1 calls $7.50
I just can't see BTN checking the flop and raising the turn without better Aces or flopped/turned boats. He's raising into a host of players, and 3betting the MP1 raise. It just screams of strong Aces.

River: ($26.75) 9d (2 players)
MP1 checks, BTN bets $39.10 all in, MP1 folds

Final Pot: $26.75
BTN wins $25.45
(Rake: $1.30)

Hands that piss me off: The equity call

Competent reg:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $22.35
BTN: $54.10
Hero (SB): $55.50
BB: $61.15
UTG: $47.80
UTG+1: $50.75
MP1: $66.60
MP2: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Kc Kd
5 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.25, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $16.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $50.25, BB calls $34
Really?  I use TableNinjaFT - it automatically sizes my raises.  While playing 12 tables, I failed to realize that raising to $50.25 was not my full stack.  However, BB flat calls with $5.25 behind!  He clearly sees "raise," "call," or "fold."  Is he playing games with his database where he drops an Ace on the flop and he shoves the remaining $5.25?  It winds up working out way in my favor; I get it in as a 86/14 favorite instead of a 70/30 favorite.  What an idiot. 

Flop: ($102.00) Th 6d 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25 all in, BB calls $5.25

Turn: ($112.50) 6s (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($112.50) Qh (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $112.50
Hero shows Kc Kd (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
BB shows Ks Ad (a pair of Sixes)
Hero wins $109.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #209 - Line check with TPGK

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $59.10
UTG+2: $86.30
MP1: $31.35
MP2: $18.50
CO: $46.45
BTN: $48.75 - 100/0 @ 1 hand
Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $50.00
UTG: $20.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Jc Ah
6 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.00) 6h As 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $5.25, BTN calls $3.75

Turn: ($15.50) 8s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $41.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

Final Pot: $35.50
BTN wins $33.75
(Rake: $1.75)

Thoughts? Am I making too much of this; is this any easy fold or a stupid fold? It just seems like such an polarizing overbet. What do you think?

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What would you do? #208 - TPTK vs. call / 3bet shove on the flop with 2 flush board

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $94.30 - 17/9 /2.3%3bet / 30% steal / 1.5AF / 2.4K hands
CO: $51.75 - 14/9/4.8%3bet/16% steal/ 3.3AF / 969 hands
BTN: $50.00
SB: $57.20
BB: $50.00
UTG: $27.85
UTG+1: $70.30
Hero (UTG+2): $56.00
MP1: $35.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Kh Ah
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($5.25) Ks 8h 6s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $3, CO calls $3, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $8.50, MP2 calls $5.50, CO raises to $50.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP2 folds

I'd imagine that this is a pretty easy laydown; there aren't many draws that he can be on - save for the obvious flush draw. He's clearly not showing up with AsKs, though 9s7s is possible but highly unlikely. More than likely, in this spot, he's looking to get a call out of one of us given my check/raise - I put him on a set of 8's or 6's. FWIW, CO MP2 took quite a while to fold this hand out - I believe he was on a spade draw or some combination thereof.

Final Pot: $30.75
CO wins $29.25
(Rake: $1.50)

Continually reinventing myself...

It's funny; the more I play this game, the more I realize that I don't know squat about playing this game.  As you have probably surmised from my lack of daily posts over the past month or so, I've been a horrendous downswing.

When I moved up to playing 100NL back in September, I experienced the best month of my poker career; BB/100- and winnings- wise.  It was fantastic.  My total win rate for the month was on the order of 8 BB/100, 4 PTBB/100, which I knew was unsustainable, but felt damn good.  I wasn't so much as sucking out, but the hands where I was ahead were holding and I built up a fair amount of positive EV for the month as well.  I was flying high.

Leading into October, the other shoe dropped.  I remember distinctly when it happened; sitting in the airport, waiting for my plane to leave from Portland, Oregon, I decided to utilize the free internet available.  I experienced 2 horrendous all-in suckouts and lost 4 buy-ins in a 30 minute session.  Needless to say, it was all downhill from there; set over sets, 0 equity calls from river suckouts, blah blah blah - as a poker player for any length of time, you know the drill.  I've never had a losing month prior to this past October.  It was not a good feeling - definitely not a feat I want to repeat.  Needless to say, my September wins were wiped away, and I started eating into my yearly profit.

The point of this post is not to brag nor complain; it's to describe where I am right now, as far as my mental state.  It took me dropping back in stakes plus the better part of November to get my head screwed on correctly.  While I was "in search of my poker self," I've come to discover something: in this game, you need to continually reinvent your game.  It's very easy to fall into a cycle where you're comfortable with your game, style, etc.  However, your opponents, if they're good, will adjust to you and pick apart your shortcomings; i.e. no particular style of play is "unexploitable."  If you play tight, then your opponent need open up his game to force folds.  If you play loose, your opponent need trap more often.  If you play aggressive, your opponent should call for value, and if you play weak, your opponent should bet more often.  You get my point.

My new self has changed my game from a 23 / 18 to a 19 / 14.  My new self has changed my won money at showdown from a mid-40% or lower player to a near 50% player.  I'm folding AJo UTG most of the time, along with KQo.  My new self has started table selecting with a lot more scrutiny.  As I come out of this losing stretch, I'm starting to look forward to playing once again.  I'm hungry to win.  I'm working hard to improve my game, rather than just resting on my laurels.

A quick summary of this month and my plan for the future:  I broke even; +$70 for the month.  The next point is more telling, though.  I played around 30K hands this month, 20K of 50NL to close out the month.  My win rate at 50NL for the month was 7.5BB/100, 3.25PTBB/100.  Those numbers should tell you how poorly I performed at 100NL to start the month, and the comeback I made to simply get to break-even.  I am currently owning 50NL, better than I was prior to my departure onto 100NL.  My plan is to continue to play 50NL for the month of December, with the end of December featuring a mix of 50NL and 100NL, rather than isolated to only 100NL.  The idea is that table selection will be easier when I have 2 stakes to choose from, rather than sticking to 100NL solely.  There are plenty of fishy tables at 50NL, but not so much at 100NL.  I am planning on taking my new game to the 100NL players; aiming to maintain my ~50% W$SD rate, with the expectation that if I can flat-line my showdown results, I can reap the profits of forced folds, rather than relying on my forced folds (i.e. won $ without showdown) to offset my W$SD losses.  I'm ready to shot 100NL again.  I belong.

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What would you do? #207 - Deep stacked holding overpair

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $50.00
BB: $49.00
UTG: $72.40 - 15/8/1.7%3bet / 50% steal / 5.5AF / 100% cbet flop
UTG+1: $52.25
Hero (MP1): $122.40 - Note that we're 150BB deep!
MP2: $93.60
CO: $78.65
BTN: $16.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Kc Kd
UTG raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.75) 2h 2s 8h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50

Turn: ($24.75) Jc (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($24.75) 3s (2 players)
UTG bets $60.40 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
I can't imagine him slow playing this way without holding / flopping a set and / or quads. Can I ever call this without the boat?

BTW, my check on the turn is for pot control. I'm not looking to get in stacks here.

The following is copied from the comments below, because I wanted to commit it to the post permanently:

Glad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.

However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.

Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).

The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.

However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...

The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."

Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.

Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.

Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.

The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."

Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.

Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.

Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.

Two final closing remarks:

I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:

ev++ Poker Tools Odds Calculation

I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.

The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.

Smells much more like value than bluff to me...

Final Pot: $24.75
UTG wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)

What would you do? #206 - TPGK against a LAGgy 2/3 pot river bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $50.00
MP2: $51.50
CO: $40.75
BTN: $31.80
SB: $50.00
BB: $65.95 - 35 / 8 / 7.7% 3bet / 17% steal / 2.4AF / 42 hands
UTG: $54.25
Hero (UTG+1): $61.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Qc
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 6h 5d Qs (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BTN folds, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.75) Js (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $5

River: ($29.75) 6d (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
A little background: In the 42 hands, he has yet to check / raise ever. It's just such an odd spot for a check / raise on the turn. Even so, are you making the call on the river?


Click to see results

Hero folds
I just can't see him wanting to stack off with anything less than QJ, which is what I suspect. There are a few draws on the turn, but I can't see him c/r'ing the turn with draws. This is such a marginal fold against a total LAGbot...

Final Pot: $29.75
BB wins $28.30
(Rake: $1.45)

What would you do? #205 - Bluffed off a monster or set over set?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $59.80
UTG: $57.25 - 12/8/ 2.2% 3bet / 21% steal / 2.6AF @ 807 hands
UTG+1: $68.50
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $89.40
Hero (MP2): $52.90
CO: $40.15
BTN: $70.15
SB: $21.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Qh Qc
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds
I flat here, somewhat to set mine, somewhat knowing that I have position. My thought by flatting is that he's folding hands that I beat, and 4betting hands that beat me.  A 12/8 raising UTG is a fairly strong move.  He cbets 24% of his hands, FWIW.

Flop: ($4.75) 3h Qd Ts (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $5
By his cbet lead, I'm assuming he has a good hand, so I want to raise for value. Also, in the off chance he's on a straight draw, I want to ensure that I charge him for his draw.  I'm not looking to blow him off of his gutshot / 2 overs hands.  I feel strongly that he'd come over the top if he flopped a set of Tens.

Turn: ($20.75) Ad (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12
Worst card in the deck (coupled with the Jack)! He calls the flop raise, indicating a pretty specific range of hands (i.e. AA, KK, TT, AK), and donks the turn. WTF? Should I be laying this hand down, or am I in for the stacks?  Perhaps the setup for the WWYD is right here.  Assuming the river is a non-Jack, the river card will not change anything in relation to the hand.

River: ($44.75) 2c (2 players)
UTG bets $35.25 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $30.90 all in
At this point, I believe my hand is a bluff catcher. I don't think he's doing this with AK. I just can't see him raising in EP with KJ, and I don't think he's pushing with AA and the possible straight out there. I think he's bet / calling, but not shipping.  I also think he's check / raising the turn with AA rather than donking.  Therefore, I make the call thinking I beat bluffs and flopped sets of Ten (less likely) vs. losing to the turned 2-outter AA set.

Final Pot: $106.55
UTG shows Js Jd (a pair of Jacks)
Hero shows Qh Qc (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero wins $103.55
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #204 - Give ze man his moneyz?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $50.50
Hero (CO): $97.55
BTN: $17.50
SB: $48.50
BB: $39.20 - 40/1/0%3bet / 0%steal / 2.3AF / 68 hands
UTG: $20.00
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $15.00
MP1: $58.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Qs Ad
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) Tc 5h Qh (2 players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6.50, BB calls $4

Turn: ($16.25) 5s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

River: ($34.25) 5d (2 players)
BB bets $22.20 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $22.20

Final Pot: $78.65
Hero mucks Qs Ad
BB shows Kd Kc (a full house, Fives full of Kings)
BB wins $75.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #203 - Deep stacked with an unknown facing a turn overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $124.10
BB: $26.60
UTG: $31.30
UTG+1: $180.05
UTG+2: $40.85
MP1: $76.95 - 38/13/1.0AF @ 8 hands
MP2: $94.80
Hero (CO): $84.80
BTN: $151.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ad Kh
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($9.75) 7d As 6c (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $5, MP1 calls $5

Turn: ($19.75) 6s (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12.50, MP1 raises to $67.45 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???



Click to see results

Hero calls $54.95
My thought is this: I have 8 hands on the guy , and this is a pretty dry flop. If he hit a set of 7's or 6's on the flop, so be it, but is he overbet shoving the turn for value? More than likely, he's min raising, or 2.5x with the intention of shoving the river instead.

I also started thinking about 6x hands, but I think it fairly unlikely for him to continue to my decent flop lead... Unlikely, though not unheard of. Therefore, I certainly considered the 6x hands as well, but ruled them out for the same reason of the set type hands.

Summed up, I make the call for the deep stacks.

River: ($154.65) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $154.65
MP1 shows Ac 4c (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero shows Ad Kh (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $151.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #202 - Overbet for value

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $119.10
UTG+1: $53.60
UTG+2: $45.20
MP1: $62.55
MP2: $58.60
CO: $40.00
BTN: $129.20
Hero (SB): $112.95
BB: $51.85 - 13 / 8 / 1.6%3bet / 25% steal / 2.7 AF / 725 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ts 9d
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) 8d Qc 6h (3 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25, MP2 folds

Turn: ($4.00) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB raises to $5.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $4.75
I think he pretty clearly has a set at this point. Set or two pair; I don't think he's folding either way.

River: ($24.00) Kd (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $101.20 all in, BB calls $40.10 all in
And I hit him with the overbet.

Final Pot: $104.20
Hero shows Ts 9d (a straight, Ten high)
BB mucks 8h 8s
Hero wins $101.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #201 - Bet / fold or check / fold?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $189.95
UTG: $54.15
UTG+1: $69.45
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $20.75
Hero (MP2): $90.90
CO: $48.40
BTN: $50.00 - 15 / 12 / 5.2% 3bet / 20% steal / 7% sqz / 2.9AF @ 235 hands
SB: $26.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Jd Kd
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BTN raises to $3.75, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($8.25) 6d Ah 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($8.25) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

River: ($18.25) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $41.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
The question is did I simply waste $10 or is this a insta-fold? I think the hand starts off screwed up where I call the 3bet, but this guy's 3bet on the button was around 10%.

Final Pot: $38.25
BTN wins $36.35
(Rake: $1.90)

What would you do? #200 - Paired board + 3flush to strong river bet

Been busy with work lately; sorry for the lack of posts.  As a result, I've been playing Rush quite a bit.  Here's a hand for you:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $40.00
CO: $119.25 - 11/8/4.4% 3bet/ 21 %steal / 1.9AF @ 200 hands
BTN: $43.25
SB: $221.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $355.75
UTG+1: $167.95
UTG+2: $75.70
MP1: $49.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Qd Qh
Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 8c 5c Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($35.50) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($35.50) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
No idea about this one. I'm beating bluffs, clearly. Is this guy calling PF with Tx? I don't think so. Is he calling with AKc or some such combo? Perhaps. It just feels much more like a value bet coming from this guy. Check raise the flop with 2 overs + flush draw. Check through the turn for a freebie. Yada yada yada...

Final Pot: $35.50
CO wins $33.75
(Rake: $1.75)

What would you do? #199 - Pocket Aces facing strong action

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $132.95 - 13 / 10 / 4.1% 3bet / 19% steal / 3.4AF @ 896 hands
BB: $100.00
UTG: $82.05
UTG+1: $70.10
UTG+2: $194.75
Hero (MP1): $100.50
MP2: $131.45
CO: $111.90
BTN: $108.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Ac As
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.00) 8d Kc 2h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.00) 3h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $22, Hero calls $13
Baluga Theorem?

River: ($58.00) Qs (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Simple read; do you make the call here?


Click to see results

Hero calls $45
I'm going through a spell where I just can't get my big hands to stick.  It's a bad state to be in; I never know whether I'm folding the best hand because I'm just being run over, or they're actually out-flopping me.  As is, it seems as though every time I make the hero call, I'm shown the nuts, so WTF?!?!?!?

Final Pot: $148.00
SB shows 2c 2s (three of a kind, Twos)
Hero mucks Ac As
SB wins $145.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #198 - Deep stacked with Kings up

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $214.80 - 33/23 / 5.3% 3bet / 50%steal / 3.1 AF @ 149 hands - this is his 4th raise in a row, and he's taken it down each time.
MP1: $182.80
MP2: $90.65
CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $235.60
SB: $98.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $200.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Kh Kc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $11, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $8

Flop: ($23.50) 5d 5h 9h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $23.50, Hero calls $23.50

Turn: ($70.50) 3h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $180.30 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $180.30
This is a player who is capable of a lot of things.  Moreover, he's getting huge implied odds to make a call with just about any two cards.  What I'm hugely concerned with is the random 5's that he may hold.  That said, I don't think I can lay an overpair... any overpair... down vs. this player.

River: ($431.10) Qd (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $431.10
UTG+1 shows 9s Js (two pair, Nines and Fives)
Hero shows Kh Kc (two pair, Kings and Fives)
Hero wins $428.10
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #197 - Aces facing turn shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $104.00
UTG: $35.00
UTG+1: $98.30 - 18/6 / 0% 3bet / 15% steal / 1.4 AF / 142 hands
UTG+2: $99.00
MP1: $40.00
Hero (MP2): $101.95
CO: $116.75
BTN: $133.90
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ah Ac
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $7

Flop: ($19.50) Qh 9s Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $19.50, Hero calls $19.50

Turn: ($58.50) Td (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $69.80 all in, Hero folds
He has to have JJ, QQ or KK.  Crappy 3bet on my part, but he raised so small that raising to $10 would have looked funny.

Final Pot: $58.50
UTG+1 wins $55.60
(Rake: $2.90)

What would you do? #196 - Flopped trips check raised on the turn

Still running terrabad, though I'm playing FAR better.  Results don't show it, of course.  I keep running into suckouts, variance, etc.  Still down 10+ buy-ins in expected value...

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $124.60
UTG+1: $77.90
MP1: $119.50
MP2: $135.50
CO: $139.25 - 11/8 / 2.4%3bet / 22% steal / 2.3 AF
BTN: $122.00
SB: $156.20 - 16/9/2.3%3bet / 25% steal / 1.9 AF
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Qd
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, CO raises to $9, 1 fold, SB calls $8.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($28.00) 9c Qh Qc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
I fully expect CO to lead here, ready to c/r him.  Fail!

Turn: ($28.00) 5c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, CO calls $25, SB raises to $128, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

I lead out here to charge for the 4th club; when I get check / raised all in, I'm in a quandry...  I have to be beat, right?


Click to see results

Hero folds, CO raises to $130.25 all in, SB calls $2.25

River: ($313.50) 5h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $313.50
CO shows Kc Ac (a flush, Ace high)
SB shows 4c 3c (a flush, Queen high)
CO wins $310.50
(Rake: $3.00)

WBCOOP 2010

I will be partaking, will you?

Changin' it up for a change?

After I busted out in the Mookie (last out of 5 total, LDO), I decided to try my hand at another game.  A little background: I know nothing about any other games than NLHE / PLHE.  I'd venture to say that I've played stud before; played draw before, etc., but I am far more comfortable with Hold'em.

Well, I wasn't ready to pack it in for the evening; my wife hosted Majong - and was still hosting- but I didn't quite feel like hitting the tables again (I've been running terrabad; down 10 buy-ins in EV this month), and had just eeked out a profit of $13 against an EV expected $180.  I decided to check out a game that would be similar in style, but far different in play - Stud Hi.  All I can say is "wow."  Obviously, at this level, there isn't very fierce competition (I played the lowest of the low, $0.05/$0.10), but the players were terrible, and I actually had a good time.  I felt like I had some semblance of knowing what I'm doing; I was able to play draws and hands fairly well.  I was able to read other players, etc.  It was an interesting game, without a doubt.

I wound up winning $3.50 in the 40-some-odd hands that I played; a decent run for those stakes, I'd estimate.  I don't know that I'm ready to become a stud player, but it's nice to know that this game is here for a nice past-time.

Understand Variance and Conquer It

Some of you may have heard me whining and moaning about a downswing that I recently experienced during the first week of October. After having a red hot September, where I received 7+ hours of formal coaching, I felt I was unstoppable. I had profited more than 120 buy-ins and comfortably moved up from $6+.50 6max SNGs to $12 6max SNGs. Note: For those that don't know me, I have grinded higher stakes in full ring SNGs in the past with good success, but recently fell in love with 6 max SNGs. So I decided to begin my quest and work my way up the ladder. Here is a picture of my graph for September 2010.

So here I am trucking along playing my optimal amount of tables [5], using my preferable tracking software [HEM], reviewing my ICM/bubble spots after each session [SNGWiz] when suddenly I started running pretty cold. It's not that I wasn't seeing good cards or making inexploitable shoves [plays where I stand to win from my opponents regardless of whether they knew what my cards were], but rather I just kept losing. Was I getting it in bad more frequently? No not really. There were obviously times where I got it in bad, but I couldn't consider it a leak; just a cooler or standard stack-off with a strong hand in a scenario where I'm not folding based on my assessment of the villain. So other than losing a lot while getting it good or bad, what could my 25+ buy-in downswing in 4 days be attributed to? Was I pushing small edges? Was I shoving too light? Was I folding too strong? Still nothing that I could come up with other than the fact that my "inexploitable shoves/plays" were costing me lots of money. So for the first time, I was experiencing a period of time where the amount of money you expect to win [EV] and the actual amount won were quite far apart. By definition you can never earn more than you expect to win, since you will get sucked out on from time to time.

However, where SNGs and cash games differ is the chip equity (ICM) model. In a cash game setting, every chip is worth the denomination written on the chip. In a SNG every chip gained is worth less and less and every chip lost is worth more and more based on the simple concept that if you win all of the chips, you do not win all of the money in the prize pool. This holds true until all players have reached the money in which chips are then fixed in value. So if I were to learn that you, as a cash game player, were expected to win $500 and you only won $300 for a given period of time, I could easily say, "Well we both know that you're running bad, but you're getting it in good so keep it up."

It isn't that easy to quantify such statements in a SNG. You see if I lose my buy-in in a 6 max SNG than I'm down 1 buy-in. But had I not lost that buy-in in whatever fashion that I busted out with, the chances of winning 3.5 buy-ins [1st place] or 2.5 buy-ins [2nd place] sky-rocket. So as you can tell this downswing of around 25 buy-ins was terribly misleading. If you were to arbitrarily use my overall in the money % average [40%] and assume that my position finished for all of these assumed lost buy-ins was normalized, meaning I finished first 21% of the time and finished 2nd 19%, than you'd see that my effective downswing was a category 5 at 43 buy-ins. If anyone is interested in seeing my calculations, feel free to let me know in the comments and I'll amend this article to include them.

Here is a picture so you can see the disparity between what I should have won [red line] and what I actually won [green line].

Keep in mind that this doesn't factor in my adjustment to 43 buy-ins, but resembles a pretty gross looking tea-cup regardless. For those of you that are familiar with technical analysis of stock markets you may know that this type of trend [cup and handle] frequently occurs before a stock is ready to take off. Let's hope this is a sign for my results to come. Stakers where are you?

The past 10 days was a period of time that we've all experienced where we say to ourselves "why is this happening to me?" Variance can do some awful things to our confidence and play. It can make you lose value in spots where you would normally bet, it can cause you to give free cards when you would otherwise charge opponents for draws or it may make you so disgusted by your results that you will simply lose that fire that you once had. Variance can cause you to re-evaluate everything that you know to be true and make it seem like everyone else has it all figured out. It can even make you begin to question the professional advice that you've heavily invested time and money in. During this reverse wind fall, I realized that several things were happening to me:

1) I was winning less than expected with +ev hands [hands with showdown value and correct reads]
2) I was winning less than expected with +ev plays [proper exploitation of the bubble and stack sizes]
3) I was losing motivation to play

1) & 2) above will gravitate back to the mean and in the end I will earn the positive equity which comes from each. It will just require a lot of trials and tribulations that the mind will have to endure prior to doing so. 3) on the other hand will not. That is the only element that I have control over and I [we] must be able to take emotion out of the equation and not attempt to escape variance. It took me about 100 SNGs and nearly 8 hours of play to reverse the damage that my bankroll endured during the the week leading up to 10/10/10. However, having been through such an experience I think that I'm better prepared to handle the inevitable "next time". After all am I going to quit just because I went on bad downswing? Never.

More overbet for value hands... A hand gone wild

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $100.05
MP2: $188.00
CO: $170.95
BTN: $120.45 - 16/13/6.0% 3bet / 34% steal (HUH?) / 2.7AF @ 1.2K hands
Hero (SB): $165.00
BB: $129.80
UTG: $120.80

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with As 3s
5 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, BTN requests TIME, BTN raises to $23, Hero calls $13
Player specific; he's raising about 50% of the time from the BTN and 39% from the SB.  I opt to 3bet him, fairly sure that I'm ahead of his range.  He 4bets me, which I perceive as weak.  I think he's angling to take this down immediately.

Flop: ($47.00) 2s Kd Ac (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
I check the flop because the pot is already large and I don't want to find myself in a situation where he raises me all in.  If he has an Ace, his Ace is almost 100% better than mine, but I'm not so sure he even hit the flop here.

Turn: ($47.00) 5s (2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $30
Now I'm 100% sure I'm ahead of him.  However, he still likes his hand.  He's not 4betting PF with a hand like 22...  He could have KK, but I *HIGHLY* doubt it.  Likely, he has a good King or less likely a decent Ace.

His flat has me in a quandary.

River: ($107.00) 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $112 all in, BTN calls $67.45 all in
The 5 pairing the board is the best thing I could have hoped for.  If he has an Ace, we split.  (AQ and below are counterfeited by the K kicker).  If he truly likes his King, he's going to call.  I'm actually praying for a fold because I think it more likely that he has a decent Ace than a good King.

Final Pot: $241.90
BTN mucks 8h Kh - LOL!
Hero shows As 3s (two pair, Aces and Fives)
Hero wins $238.90
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #195 - Missed value?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $118.85
UTG+2: $95.05
MP1: $190.35
MP2: $112.70 - 21/14 / 0% steal / 11.1% 3bet / 4.0 AF / 100 cbet flop / 28 hands
CO: $91.50
BTN: $35.00
SB: $55.15
Hero (BB): $196.15
UTG: $51.95

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with As Ks
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) Qs 8c Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
I don't think he has two pair; he'd lead here.

Turn: ($22.50) 8d (2 players)
Hero bets $13, MP2 calls $13
I'm hating this hand.  I don't know a ton about this player, and he's flatted my 3bet IP.  He's also called my turn bet on the bricked 8's.

River: ($48.50) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
I had planned to value bet the river, but the only draw (JT) got there.  Should I be leading the river here?  Obviously, given the results, the "perfect play" is to bet small, $10-15.  I think, at the time, I'm looking for a check / raise or a check / call, but don't get either.

Is it a mistake not to be leading?

Final Pot: $48.50
MP2 mucks Jh Qc
Hero shows As Ks (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Hero wins $46.10
(Rake: $2.40)

Nobody's perfect

What a disaster...  I've been running poorly this month.  I'm on travel for work in Hood River, Oregon - my hours are slightly off, coupled with me being sick makes for a bad recipe for poker playing.  However, me being me, I'm driven to get that damn Black Card from FT.  It's been a challenge putting in the hands, but I'm somehow managing.

Anyway, I put up a few posts in the past month regarding 4 betting and squeezing that I'm running into at the 100NL level, and I've been able to fairly well navigate the pitfalls and showing a nice profit by exploiting these plays.  However, I want to share a play with you where I miserably fail at considering what my opponent considers me to have.  I post it up here not only to publicly shame myself into never doing this again, but I also felt it was somewhat interesting.  I've definitely been thinking about it since it happened.

He has a 7.3% 3bet with an 8% squeeze over 1K hands...

I over-think his capability for giving me credit in this spot...  I think, due to the dead money, even if he considers me to have a pair, he still shows a profit being very likely to be a 50/50 flip.  He proves to be a lot better than 50/50 (70/30 to be exact).

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $103.00
Hero (BTN): $102.50
SB: $113.80
BB: $35.00
UTG: $137.10
UTG+1: $35.00
MP: $91.50

UTG+1 posts a big blind ($1)

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is BTN with As 5s
UTG raises to $4.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $20,
I mostly expected my 8% squeezing friend to squeeze in this spot.  I should like to 3bet in this spot; I have position and initiative.  However, I can take less of a risk by letting my friend 3bet for me...  Since he folds out everyone except me, I opt to shove over him.

4 folds, Hero raises to $102.50 all in, SB requests TIME, SB calls $82.50
What I fail to consider is the fact that he doesn't see himself as a squeezer.  Therefore, he does not expect me to ever make this move on him - he would more expect me to 3bet prior to action getting to him.  Therefore, he can mostly discount AA, KK, even QQ, making him a 50/50 split at worst.

I was actually surprised at his call, but after careful thought, I think this was poor playing by me.

Flop: ($219.50) 6s 7s 3h

Turn: ($219.50) 2s

River: ($219.50) Th

Final Pot: $219.50
Hero shows As 5s (a flush, Ace high) - I'm such a luckbox!
SB shows Ac Qc (Ace Queen high)
Hero wins $216.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #194 - Easy PF fold with TT?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $54.35
UTG+2: $63.80 - 33/14 / 0% 3bet / 0% steal / 21 hands
MP1: $89.70 - 20 / 0 / 0% 3bet / 0% steal / 5 hands
MP2: $36.00
CO: $109.95
BTN: $119.75
SB: $124.35
Hero (BB): $107.35
UTG: $168.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Tc Ts
UTG requests TIME, 2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, MP1 raises to $89.70 all in, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME, 2 folds

Easy fold?  The only reason I could give myself to make this call is that he accidentally hit the wrong button.  I figure that I fold here and wait for better spots to clearly outplay him rather than take a gamble with a hand that could wind up being a coin flip.  Clearly, he's going to be an action player.

Final Pot: $5.50
MP1 wins $5.50

DQB - In love with 4betting

I am in love with 4betting.  Not many people out there are doing it, and I think I'm actually working an effective 4bet game (or so says my HEM stats...)  Perhaps $100NL is the start where people can actually lay down their JJ, QQ or even AQ, etc., which is what enables an effective 4bet game.

Below is an example where I had 4bet the field 2 times in the prior 2 hands (once I folded a flop shove and the other I took down pre-flop.  I wake up with a hand on the 3rd 4bet in a row - and induce a wonky 5bet shove.  Moreover, I flop stone quads - dem quads bitches (DQB).

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $53.80
UTG+1: $106.45
Hero (UTG+2): $100.00
MP1: $180.05
MP2: $101.00
CO: $83.05
BTN: $221.95
SB: $328.25
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with Ks Kh
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $9, 4 folds, Hero raises to $25, MP2 requests TIME, MP2 raises to $101 all in, Hero calls $75 all in

Flop: ($201.50) Kd 6s Kc

Turn: ($201.50) Qd

River: ($201.50) Ac

Final Pot: $201.50
Hero shows Ks Kh (four of a kind, Kings)
MP2 shows 4d Ad (two pair, Aces and Kings)
Hero wins $198.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #193 - Overplayed or outplayed? - Another overbet shove

 Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $100.00
CO: $100.00 - 16/12/ 38% steal / 5.7% 3bet / 2.3 AF / 852 hands
BTN: $109.95
SB: $96.00
BB: $120.70
UTG: $96.90
UTG+1: $110.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Jh Jd
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, CO raises to $10, 3 folds, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($21.50) 9d 3s 8s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $16, Hero calls $16
Okay???

Turn: ($53.50) 8d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO requests TIME, CO bets $74 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero calls $74 all in
It just looks so bluffy here.  I'm not quite sure what his intention is by doing this, but I look him up.  It's just such a weird spot to shove on the turn.  

River: ($201.50) Jc (2 players - 2 are all in)
[Face palm!]

Final Pot: $201.50
Hero shows Jh Jd (a full house, Jacks full of Eights)
CO shows Qh Qs (two pair, Queens and Eights)
Hero wins $198.50
(Rake: $3.00)

The Poker Meister #71 - A little freeroll action?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $35.00
MP2: $100.00
Hero (CO): $283.60
BTN: $181.55
SB: $103.10
BB: $145.40
UTG: $115.50
UTG+1: $104.50
UTG+2: $115.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 9c Jc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12.00) 8c 5d 6c (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, BTN folds, UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 raises to $21, Hero calls $13

Turn: ($54.00) 7d (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $42, Hero raises to $126, UTG+1 folds
Not quite sure what he has that he can't call off the last of his $~30...  But I sure do LOVE this hand...

Final Pot: $138.00
Hero wins $135.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #192 - Another overbet shove hand

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $95.50
BTN: $106.80
SB: $283.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $100.00
UTG+1: $142.45
MP1: $105.50
MP2: $112.80 - 12/8 / 22% steal / 4.1% 3bet / 3.8 AF / 81% cbet flop / 820 hands - Solid winning reg
His street by street AF is:
5.8 Flop (42% @ 77 times) 2.2 (31% @ 36 times) Turn 2.28 (46% @ 24 times) River 
Pre Flop: ($1.00) Hero is UTG with 9d 9s
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) 2s Tc 4d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $5, SB calls $5, Hero calls $5
I check to let Mr. 81% lead cbet my PFR.  No sense in raising here; if I raise, I blow him off all of his bluffs.

Turn: ($24.00) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $16, SB folds, Hero calls $16
As expected, he continues.

River: ($56.00) 5s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $88.80 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
WTF?

Click to see results

Hero folds
Okay?  Now what?  I realize that I've repped a fairly strong hand - JJ+.  I don't think I can call this.  This is a bluff / nuts & I'm erring on nuts / flopped sets with 3 streets of value.  I think he has to check through by the end of this hand...  What does he have?  AT?  No way!  He's got sets here and only sets.

Final Pot: $56.00
MP2 wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)

What would you do? #191 - 3 flush flop + turned Ace facing big river bet with QQ

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $109.95
SB: $100.50
BB: $159.65
UTG: $194.00
UTG+1: $101.50
Hero (MP1): $145.25 - 19/15 / 54% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 10.5 AF / 190 hands (at this table, which both villains have developed their hand histories on me) - BIG winning reg at the stakes
MP2: $136.15 - 39/6 / 50% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.2 AF / 70 hands - *TERRIBLE PLAYER*
CO: $139.25 - 13/11 / 30% steal / 7.2% 3bet / 2.6 AF / 229 hands

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Qc Qd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($13.00) Jd 7d 6d (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 calls $9, CO calls $9, SB folds

Turn: ($40.00) Ah (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $28, Hero calls $28, MP2 calls $28
I likely should be folding here.  I just don't have the fortitude to lay this down.  I also feel like I have the best diamond in the bunch, but how often am I getting paid on it?  With MP2 calling behind, I am seriously questioning my diamond draw, though.

River: ($124.00) 3s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $41, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP2 calls $41
I'm pretty sure - at a minimum, one of them has an Ace.  I allowed myself to get value towned for $28.  I'm not throwing the baby out with the bath water, as they say :-).

Final Pot: $206.00
MP2 mucks Ac 5d
CO shows 7c 6c (two pair, Sevens and Sixes)
CO wins $203.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Flopped straight flush

Oh how I wish I could get paid...

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): $197.50
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $100.00
CO: $137.85
BTN: $85.45
SB: $63.80
BB: $101.15
UTG: $143.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with 5d 6d
1 fold, Hero calls $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($3.00) 3d 7d 4d (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.00) 2c (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB folds, BB folds
Anybody willing to hold on for the Kd or Ad maybe?  Please?  What about straights?  You guys surely have a card or two that will complete your straight!  No?  Come on?  Courtesy call?  I'm not bluffing here, I swear it!

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero wins $2.85
(Rake: $0.15)

What would you do? #190 - More overbets for value?

In keeping in tune with the theme this week, here's a hand I had where I get shoved on the river from a very deep stacked opponent:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $73.10
UTG+2: $96.75
MP1: $98.50
MP2: $100.50
CO: $100.00
BTN: $268.60 - 14/0 / meaningless stats otherwise @ 9 hands - I have him tagged as a LAG due to PTR's stats: 23.65/13.8 / 4.41%3bet though lifetime wins at $751 over 19.5K hands and a winning record at 100NL ($1257 @ 8801 hands; 7.14PTBB/100)
SB: $226.85
BB: $113.15
Hero (UTG): $101.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Qd
Hero raises to $3, 5 folds, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) Qs 5d Js (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6, SB folds
Flopped TPTK.

Turn: ($22.00) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets $15.40, BTN calls $15.40
Turned TPTK + diamond draw...  No reason to slow down.

River: ($52.80) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $25, BTN raises to $244.20 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
The 5 changes nothing.  WWYD? Obviously a bit different than the prior HH's this week because this is not nearly the overbet shove, but WTF?


Click to see results

Hero folds
I just can't see him doing this with a hand that I beat.  If I review: call, call, shove?  I keep thinking about KT or T8.  I also think about T9 which is what has me questioning myself.  I have to believe the mistake I made here was leading the river.  I should have check / called rather than bet / folded.

Final Pot: $102.80
BTN wins $99.80
(Rake: $3.00)

One quick "woe unto me" post...

Still playing well....  Any reason to call this river?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $138.60
BTN: $41.10
SB: $20.20
BB: $32.00
UTG: $65.55
UTG+1: $225.05 - My note on this guy from PTR is that he's a HUGE loser!  He's tight as anything, but can never lay down.  He's a 10/7/2.8%3bet who rarely steals...
Hero (MP): $160.40

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with 4h 4s
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 6s 4c Jd (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50
Sweet... bring me the moneys!

Turn: ($18.50) Js (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $13, Hero calls $13
This is SUCH a bad card because I don't want to raise and make it look like I hit trips.  I plan to make a play on the river because I know he's not going to lay down.  Just keep betting, baby!

River: ($44.50) Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $26.50, Hero folds
Ouch.  Fail.  Oh dear...

Final Pot: $44.50
UTG+1 wins $42.30
(Rake: $2.20)

What would you do? #189 - Overbet for value opportunity?

Somewhat of a weak one today...  sorry.  :-)

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $122.40
MP2: $76.30 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 7, 3B: 2, AF: 3.3, Hands: 112
CO: $100.00
BTN: $52.20
SB: $147.25
BB: $346.75
UTG: $94.50
Hero (UTG+1): $100.00
UTG+2: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Jc Js
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3c Kh Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
Not really sure where he is with the hand; I don't want to bet if I feel as though he doesn't have a King.  However, I do want to bet if he does have the King.  I prefer to let him lead, though.  No dice.

Turn: ($7.50) Ks (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25, MP2 raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $18, MP2 calls $7.50
A pretty good sign that he min raises me...  At this point, I put him on trips - AK, KQ, [ugh...]KJ, etc.  Pretty good sign that he doesn't come over the top of my 3bet - he has a strong King that is likely to call any river bet.

River: ($43.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $79 all in, MP2 calls $55.30 all in
Given the above (i.e. he's not getting away from the hand), I go for max pain, with a "fishy" overbet to the pot.  If I bet pot, I miss $12 of value.  If I bet $55.30, it looks very strong.  If I just mash the All In button, it looks fishy.  Therefore, ship it.

Factoring into my decision was the idea that this guy does not have a full stack.  I doubt he's a solid player who is every laying down top trips on a non-threatening board.  

Final Pot: $154.10
MP2 mucks Kd Qd
Hero shows Jc Js (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
Hero wins $151.10
(Rake: $3.00)

A little bluffing never hurt no one...

Speaking of steals and betting multiple streets:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $165.50
SB: $131.50
BB: $100.00
UTG: $70.00 - 0 hands.  Zippo.  Nada
UTG+1: $159.85
MP: $151.20
CO: $187.00

UTG posts a big blind ($1)

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is BTN with 6s 7s
UTG checks, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3, UTG calls $3
I go for a steal and am surprised to be called by UTG.  Odd play.  BB knows I love to steal & iso; he's a 15/11 / 4.9% 3bettor.

Flop: ($12.50) Th 3s 4h (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $7, BB folds, UTG calls $7
Okay.  Backdoor spade draw + gutshot that he won't see when / if it hits.

Turn: ($26.50) Qs (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero raises to $30, UTG calls $20
Spades come in.  Keep betting; I'm not sure I'm happy with my bet sizing here - I'd like it to be a bit more, but I don't want to make it such that he has to make a crying call on the river.  In retrospect, I think this is a good sized raise.

River: ($86.50) 9c (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30, UTG folds
For the remainder of his stack ($29).  Pure bluff for 3 streets.  GG sir.  Thanks for more than 50% of your starting stack.

Final Pot: $86.50
Hero wins $83.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #188 - The overbet for value Part 2

To recap, here was the beginning of yesterday's post (edited for time :-) ):


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $104.15
UTG: $104.50
UTG+1: $440.75 - This guy is an 18/11/3.3%3b tight reg who rarely folds to 3bet (33%).  He's a reg with whom I have a TON of history.
As I've been doing lately, I'm going through my player lists and cross referencing them to PTR.  Therefore, I have his lifetime history (which may or may not play into your decision):
$-9,618 @ 240K hands for a lifetime loss of -1.74PTBB/100
VPIP 16.8%/ PFR 10.46% / 3bet 2.94% / AF 1.48 / 4bet 11.82%
MP: $108.65
Hero (CO): $152.25 - Note that we're somewhat deep stacked.
BTN: $82.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 2h 8d 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Terrible check, though I was pretty certain it would induce a turn lead - (FAIL!)

Turn: ($22.50) 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17
Okay.  Here's what I know: He has enough history under his belt to know full well that if he himself hit a monster (set, trips, etc.), that he's not going to stack me without bet bet betting.  He has given me no inclination that he is interested in getting stacks in.  However, he seems very content to check / call down.  My check on the flop is suspect; to him, I have not given an indication that I want to get stacks in, either.  However, I *VERY* much do want stacks in - I, personally, have him on a range of JJ+ with KK being the best culprit. 

River: ($56.50) 6c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $124.75 all in
I sent this HH to Josh; he and I had a HUGE discussion over this hand.  He totally disagreed with this shove - the logic he used is that a pot sized bet is more likely to be called (say 90%+ of the time), more than a river 2.5x pot shove.


Click to see results

UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 calls $124.75
My logic is that I'm rarely ever doing this, but two things are in my mind: first, I checked the flop which makes my hand more concealed (how many times are players checking the flop when they intend to get stacks in by the river?) and like the post yesterday, this player is content in looking me up.

My shove says one of two things: F* you, if you won't fold to my turn bet, you'll fold to me now (i.e. I have AK and I'm FORCING you to to fold), or I want value from a hand that I know beats your hand.  Hence a polarizing bet, which, where in my post from 2 days ago, Ringer bet of $30 which would have been the same had he bet $24, this bet is the same whether I bet $50 or $125.  Well, maybe not "the same..." $125 is a *BIT* more than $50, but you get the idea, nevertheless.

Honestly, I put him on KK from his action.  At worst, he's got an overpair which he refuses to lay down.  He's a .7 AF, so his check / call lines are consistent with his stats.

I'm 99% certain I'm ahead here - how do I get stacks in against a guy who will only check / call the whole way down?  Shove the river for 125BBs, of course!


Again, this is a very specific circumstance, but I think I'm going to take this line in the future against players like the guy I was talking about - lak - or this guy.  Calling stations should get punished for their curiosity.

Final Pot: $306.00
UTG+1 mucks 7s 8s - FAR FAR FAR lighter than I expected.  This actually kind of shocked me, making my AA shove a pretty thin bet; he could have easily wound up with trip 6's.  My image from this guy's perspective must be pretty bad, overall... (LOL)...

Hero shows Ac Ad (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $303.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Post analysis: Overall, I am *RARELY* seeing this type of move.  It is just so out-of-character for anyone to do this.  I figured, though, if he has KK, he'll call a shove as often as he'll call a pot sized bet.

What would you do? #188 - The overbet for value Part 1

Following on yesterday's post, I present a player (this is not lakofpoisonivey, FWIW) who seems to like to bluff catch, and *LOVES* to stick around.  Couple that with the fact that he had been running good (up until this point LOL) - he was on the top 50 winners leaderboard for a portion of yesterday. 

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $104.15
UTG: $104.50
UTG+1: $440.75 - This guy is an 18/11/3.3%3b standard reg who rarely folds to 3bet (33%).  He's a reg with whom I have a TON of history.
As I've been doing lately, I'm going through my player lists and cross referencing them to PTR.  Therefore, I have his lifetime history (which may or may not play into your decision):
$-9,618 @ 240K hands for a lifetime loss of -1.74PTBB/100
VPIP 16.8%/ PFR 10.46% / 3bet 2.94% / AF 1.48 / 4bet 11.82%

MP: $108.65
Hero (CO): $152.25 - Note that we're somewhat deep stacked.
BTN: $82.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 2h 8d 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Terrible check, though I was pretty certain it would induce a turn lead - (FAIL!)

Turn: ($22.50) 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17
Okay.  Here's what I know: He has enough history under his belt to know full well that if he himself hit a monster (set, trips, etc.), that he's not going to stack me without bet bet betting.  He has given me no inclination that he is interested in getting stacks in.  However, he seems very content to check / call down.  My check on the flop is suspect; to him, I have not given an indication that I want to get stacks in, either.  However, I *VERY* much do want stacks in - I, personally, have him on a range of JJ+ with KK being the best culprit. 

River: ($56.50) 6c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $124.75 all in
I sent this HH to Josh; he and I had a HUGE discussion over this hand.  He totally disagreed with this shove - the logic he used is that a pot sized bet is more likely to be called (say 90%+ of the time), more than a river 2.5x pot shove.  But here is the hand history, right up to my river action...

I'm going to switch it up for the first time ever!  I'm not going to publish the results.  I will put a post out tomorrow morning with the results and commentary.  I'm hoping that you will comment on a few things:

• Is this a profitable line?
• What kinds of hands do you expect him to show up with?
• Would you have played this differently?

On video watching and other miscellaneous goings ons...

Since my coaching with SplitSuit, I've been reading a bit in my spare time, but rarely watching any training videos or otherwise increasing my pokery knowledge.  Mostly, I've been trying to get enough of a sample size together where I can declare victory on my new / re-invented style of play.  Sorting through the chaff (positive EV, in this case), and distinguishing what is working from what is not, has proven to be somewhat difficult; I'm running at a 5.5PTBB/100 (equating to roughly $50/hr) for the month at $100NL.  I know that as a poker player, I can expect to go through periods where I absolutely smash the games, mixed in with periods where I can't hit water if I fell out of a boat...  Right now, I'm going through a period where I am upswinging AND playing spectacularly well (again, subjective; is it that I'm playing well or getting good cards).  From that, though, it's hard to tell what my "real" win rate is and whether my being smacked by the deck influences what I think is working for me.  FWIW, if you're interested, I've written about my stylistic changes in a prior post... see here.

Well, on the recommendation of a highly-respected (though not in the 2p2 forums, by his claims) "poker authority" Doublefly (3 links for you, my friend!),  I sat down over the weekend to absorb one of CardRunner's newer videos, "A Little R&R Part 1," with Rask & Damn Ringer, 2 well established online pros in the community.  The videos were helpful; I always figure that if I picked up at least one thing I hadn't thought about before, then it was worth my time.  The video consisted of the two of them engaging in a banter about strategy regarding when to semi-bluff boards.  An example of this is as follows: you will be more profitable to bluff an Ac Kd 7s board with 4d 5d than you would with pocket 6's.  Your equity is quite a bit higher (10.4% vs. 8.8%) due to the backdoor draws that you can pick up on the turn (i.e. flush & straight possibilities), whereas with the 6's, the best that you can hope for is to hit a 6.  Deal this out over 1 million hands, and the equity difference of 1.8% becomes a lot more clear.  Their line of logic makes total sense; nothing new here; moving on...

Following the classroom learning, they got into 2 hand histories that each of them had played in prior sessions.  Damn Ringer's hand was examined first, and the setup was that he was blind stealing with 44 in the SB at $100NL.  In the BB was a player that I have particular problems with (lakofpoisonivey) when he has position on me - and Damn Ringer had the same problems.  There's a couple of directions I'd like to note here prior to dissecting the play further.

• The premise of the HH review was to discuss barrelling boards.  In their opinion, it doesn't make sense to cbet the flop (assuming its a good flop to cbet) without multi-barrelling (i.e. bet turn and/or river).  It got me thinking about the times (and keep in mind that I'm a HUGE stealer; 45%+ *AT LEAST*) where I'll cbet the flop & give up on the turn / river only to see my opponent float the flop on a bad board and get there with his 97 by the river to my 22 on an A T 3 [for example] board.
  
  Why is that happening?  Because I'm not continuing on the turn.  It becomes very easy for my opponent to float the flop and either fold or get to show down cheaply when he knows I'm going to either continue representing my hand (which he can fold to a cbet on the turn) or going into check mode (where he can turn the tables and represent himself OR get to showdown).  The power of position...  I hate being out of position...
• Said player above is not a great player, by any stretch, though he is a pretty decent reg.  I don't put him in the Rakeback pro category, but I don't put him in the QQ-Q U A D S-QQ (the nuts at $100NL) category, either.  I respect his play; let's leave it at that - he's a $9700 winner to the tune of 0.84PTBB/100 over 517K hands.  To sum up, he is an aware player, but an exploitable multi-tabler.
• This strategy of barrelling will work against certain players, but at some point, I think you need to abandon ship.  I don't think you can try to move a mountain who will look you up.  In Damn Ringer's defense, I think he had all of ~400 hands on the guy, so he didn't have a clear representation of lak's stationy tendencies.
• It felt good to see that other players (who I'd classify as in the GREAT category) have problems with the players that I have problems with.
• The HH they chose for Ringer is ironic; they earlier talked about bluffing / semi-bluffing boards where you have a bit higher equity, yet they chose pocket 4's as the HH example.

Back to the hand: The flop comes A K Q rainbow - just about the worst flop for 44 that you'd EVER want to see.  Ringer stole for $3, leaving a pot of $6 (and huge remaining stacks, which won't come into play in this recap).  Ringer donks the flop for $4 and lak calls.  The turn is a brick and Ringer decides to lead again - I think $10 into $14 (sorry if I got the exact details wrong - it may have been a little larger bet).  Lak once again calls.  Finally, Ringer decides to bet big on the river (bigger than he probably should have) $30 into $34.  Rask commented [and I agree] that he would have had the same affect if he had bet $22-24 and saved himself $6-8 of bluff money.  Regardless, lak calls and shows K3s for second pair, no kicker.

A few things of note, which got me thinking: there are players out there, like lak, who will hero call you when your lines don't entirely make sense.  Clearly, Ringer was polarized by the river.  A nearly pot sized river bet ALWAYS says nuts / air (and I don't mean literal nuts, JT, but top two, sets, etc.), because rarely is anyone 3 streeting it with less.  If I'm in lak's position, I don't think Ringer is [essentially] potting each street with a weak Ace, second pair, etc.  He *HAS* to slow down because the pot will become unmanageable, especially out of position.  Therefore, he's either got lak crushed or he's trying to bully him.

To sum up, I've been finding myself in spots similar to Ringer's, where I actually do have a showdown worthy hand and I'm not thin value betting 3 streets - or I'm firing at the flop and letting go of the hand on the turn / river.  I'm working on closing that leak... by either not cbetting bad boards, or barrelling to force my opponent off his hand.  Last night, it worked a bunch of times, where my turn cbet bluff on my SB steal forced a lay down.  The culmination of last night is a hand I'll share with you tomorrow in the "What Would You Do?" segment.  I'm curious about your opinions, because I take the exact opposite approach to what is shown in the video, I force a would-be hero call by a river overbet (HUGE OVERBET) shove.  Stay tuned!

What would you do? #187 - Fairly deep against a maniac

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $168.60
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $147.05
UTG+2: $97.30
MP1: $45.90
MP2: $257.15
CO: $32.50
BTN: $59.80
SB: $176.25 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 41, 3B: 43, AF: 1.6, Hands: 44

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Ad Qd
7 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $25, Hero calls $15
Any chance of folding here?

Flop: ($50.00) 6h 6d Ah (2 players)
SB bets $28, Hero calls $28
What about his lead here?  Any chance?  If you call the flop, do you call the turn and the inevitable river shove?

Turn: ($106.00) 5d (2 players)
SB requests TIME, SB bets $46.50, Hero calls $46.50
Here?

River: ($199.00) 2c (2 players)
SB bets $76.75 all in, Hero ???
Without looking at the results, good or badly played hand?


Click to see results

I'm thinking raising is pulling him off of all of his bluffs, though I have not seen *THIS* level of aggression out of him.  Stacking off 170BBs?  On a bluff?  Duly noted, sir.  This hand made my nut for the night.
Hero calls $69.10 all in

Final Pot: $337.20
Hero shows Ad Qd (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
SB shows 9s 5s (two pair, Sixes and Fives)
Hero wins $334.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #186 - Deep stacked with Aces up

 Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+2): $214.50
MP1: $58.80
MP2: $101.00
CO: $207.20 - 18/13 / 34% steal / 5.7% 3bet / 3.0 AF / 954 hands
BTN: $108.35
SB: $100.50
BB: $94.55
UTG: $48.50
UTG+1: $99.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with As 9s
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 2s Ac 9d (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $6, BB folds, Hero calls $6
Great flop; there are ton of "better" Aces.

Turn: ($21.50) 3d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $18, Hero calls $18
I thought about raising here, but he's so deep stacked & this is such a confident bet...  Anyone raising here?

River: ($57.50) Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $38, Hero ???
I think I can definitely get stacks in here; he likes his hand.  WWYD?  Is Aces up good enough for 200BBs?

Click to see results

It just feels too much like he's value betting me with a far superior hand.  I'm pretty certain he didn't hit his Queen on the river, and it is unlikely for him to have sets of Aces or 9's, which leaves him with a set of 2's or AK.  This feels so much like a value bet, though...  Therefore, I reduce my hand to bluff catcher.  As a reg, he just doesn't strike me as the type to overvalue AK


Hero calls $38

Final Pot: $133.50
Hero mucks As 9s
CO shows 2h 2c (three of a kind, Twos)
CO wins $130.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #185 - Hating life

I included positional stats (which, admittedly, I don't look at very often...) because I think it's relevant here:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/938275
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): $100.00
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $54.50
CO: $100.00 - 14/11 / 24% steal / 6.1% 3bet / 2.9AF (4.0 Flop AF / 41%, 1.8 Turn AF /23%, 3.0 River AF / 16%)/ 984 hands
BTN: $100.00
SB: $135.65
BB: $110.25
UTG: $27.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Qd Qc
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO raises to $10.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) Jc 6s Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($44.50) 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

River: ($92.50) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $54.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
What the hell does he have here?  WTF?!?!?!? In retrospect, I called my way into making this a profitable call, (3:1) but am I ever going to be good here?  I bail before losing a stack, which, while not good, is better than losing a stack.


I suck in this hand.  The reason I'm calling all the way, though, is his 6.1% 3bet.  Am I making a mistake folding?

Final Pot: $92.50
CO wins $89.50
(Rake: $3.00)

I have OCD... I swear I do!

I had a pretty bad session last night...  You know, the type of session where you're up around 2 buy ins and everything is on cruise control until you run into a tree: set over set twice, bad cards on the turn or river, etc. etc.  You know what I'm talking about; you have significant equity and then you're forced to bail on the turn or riv.  Aggrodonks raising their flush draws and betting you on each street only to hit their flush on the river...

Anyway, back to the title: OCD (Obsessive Compulsive Disorder).  I know I'm very meticulous; ask my wife - she'll tell you.  Well, I got involved in a hand with an unknown and a spewbox; you know the type: 60/2, calls flops, only to fold, etc.  Anyway, the hand went as follows: I'm dealt QQ in position and 3 bet the EP donk limper to $5... standard...  The unknown 3bets me (he has position on me) to $10 or $11 (he has a stack size of $25 total).  Donk flats and I decide to flat (the donk has $50 or so).  So the flop comes 9 high rainbow...  Donk checks, I check and 3bettor bets his remaining $14 all in.  Donk flats and I decide to raise the donk all in, as he clearly likes his hand.  However, I only put out a raise to $35, not realizing that he has $21.15 remaining in his stack...  so he sits on $0.15 remaining into the turn, which is, of course an Ace.  He bets the "all in" remaining $0.15 and I insta call (ldo)...  and you know what he flips over?  AKs vs shorty's AA vs. my QQ.  So, why am I pissed?  Not because of any of the actions of any of the players...  donkey sucks and I want him doing that every time...  but because now my all-in EV is F*ed...  Now it shows that I got all in on the turn, with essentially no equity, when the turn was a $0.15 all in.  Really, the donkey 4 outted me, but I only get a 4% equity instead of the 84% equity vs. him.


I am so pissed, I'm considering changing the hand history to show an all in on the flop...  OCD much?

With the set over sets (2 - one was AA (flopped A) vs. KK - AI on the turned King) and one would-be set over set (which I fortunately folded my 66 in a 3bet pot, OOP), I can say I am happy that I "only" lost $185 for the marathon session.  It's sad that the only hand I truly remember in detail is the above because it just irritated me so...  I have 84% equity vs. the donk and my HEM DB doesn't give me credit!  F THIS!


P.S.  I feel like such a nerd for writing this.