Thursday, November 18, 2010

What would you do? #205 - Bluffed off a monster or set over set?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

BB: $59.80
UTG: $57.25 - 12/8/ 2.2% 3bet / 21% steal / 2.6AF @ 807 hands
UTG+1: $68.50
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $89.40
Hero (MP2): $52.90
CO: $40.15
BTN: $70.15
SB: $21.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Qh Qc
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds
I flat here, somewhat to set mine, somewhat knowing that I have position. My thought by flatting is that he's folding hands that I beat, and 4betting hands that beat me.  A 12/8 raising UTG is a fairly strong move.  He cbets 24% of his hands, FWIW.

Flop: ($4.75) 3h Qd Ts (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $5
By his cbet lead, I'm assuming he has a good hand, so I want to raise for value. Also, in the off chance he's on a straight draw, I want to ensure that I charge him for his draw.  I'm not looking to blow him off of his gutshot / 2 overs hands.  I feel strongly that he'd come over the top if he flopped a set of Tens.

Turn: ($20.75) Ad (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12
Worst card in the deck (coupled with the Jack)! He calls the flop raise, indicating a pretty specific range of hands (i.e. AA, KK, TT, AK), and donks the turn. WTF? Should I be laying this hand down, or am I in for the stacks?  Perhaps the setup for the WWYD is right here.  Assuming the river is a non-Jack, the river card will not change anything in relation to the hand.

River: ($44.75) 2c (2 players)
UTG bets $35.25 all in, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero calls $30.90 all in
At this point, I believe my hand is a bluff catcher. I don't think he's doing this with AK. I just can't see him raising in EP with KJ, and I don't think he's pushing with AA and the possible straight out there. I think he's bet / calling, but not shipping.  I also think he's check / raising the turn with AA rather than donking.  Therefore, I make the call thinking I beat bluffs and flopped sets of Ten (less likely) vs. losing to the turned 2-outter AA set.

Final Pot: $106.55
UTG shows Js Jd (a pair of Jacks)
Hero shows Qh Qc (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero wins $103.55
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. can you put him on the last queen (AQ)? These few combos seem possible.

    I couldn't put him on KJ either based on his stats - I wasn't worried about that.

    I am surprised to see what he turned up with. Why did he call the flop raise? Guess he thought you were full of crap.

  2. I suppose it's true that a lot of times, I am full of crap. It is disappointing to me that I *ALMOST* didn't get paid when I did have the goods.

  3. I have not seen results but I'm not folding here very often. There are exactly 2 hands here that you are concerned with obv AA and KJ. I think KJs is prob not as likely given his stats. This type of player prob 3 bets the flop with AA so I think you are rarely beat here. I think he shows up with AK, AQ, TT, maybe even KK turning it into a bluff when the A fell.

  4. I call down. Your at the absolute top of your range, and shouldn't ever be folding this for ~100bbs. The only thing I do differently is raise the flop to something like $11. Because he is so tight, he won't likely continue w/o AA or KK, almost regardless of the raise size. Also, when you raise it big on the flop, it looks like a big draw. He will quickly stack off w/ AA, KK, AQ, and possibly worse.

  5. @Anonymous - "Because he is so tight, he won't likely continue w/o AA or KK" - The sole reason I didn't want to raise big is exactly that; he won't likely continue w/o AA or KK. If I raise big, I push all hands that I want to follow off of their draws. If I raise small-ish, I give him the opportunity to re-pop or continue with a lesser hand. On the flop, I want any and all hands to continue on their draws; I don't ever want to price them out with my nuts hands.

  6. With your image, you have to include AK in his b/c range on the flop. If a really nitty player raised this flop most 12/8s are folding. That leaves 4 combos of AA, 2 combos of TT, 3 AQ combos, 12 AK, some 33 and some percentage to a random spew bluff. So we beat 17ish hands and lose to 4. I think I have to call and feel ok about it.

  7. My point was that I didn't expect him to continue to any size raise w/ anything less than AA and KK (maybe AQ rethinking this, but that just isn't likely and he might just fold that preflop). I'm frankly shocked he continued on w/ that.


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