The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
SB: $50.00
BB: $49.00
UTG: $72.40 - 15/8/1.7%3bet / 50% steal / 5.5AF / 100% cbet flop
UTG+1: $52.25
Hero (MP1): $122.40 - Note that we're 150BB deep!
MP2: $93.60
CO: $78.65
BTN: $16.50
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Kc Kd
UTG raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $3.75
Flop: ($11.75) 2h 2s 8h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50
Turn: ($24.75) Jc (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($24.75) 3s (2 players)
UTG bets $60.40 all in, Hero ???
Click to see results
Hero folds
I can't imagine him slow playing this way without holding / flopping a set and / or quads. Can I ever call this without the boat?
BTW, my check on the turn is for pot control. I'm not looking to get in stacks here.
The following is copied from the comments below, because I wanted to commit it to the post permanently:
Glad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.
However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.
Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).
The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.
However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
Two final closing remarks:
I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:
ev++ Poker Tools Odds Calculation
I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.
The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.
Smells much more like value than bluff to me...
Final Pot: $24.75
UTG wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)
I can't imagine him slow playing this way without holding / flopping a set and / or quads. Can I ever call this without the boat?
BTW, my check on the turn is for pot control. I'm not looking to get in stacks here.
The following is copied from the comments below, because I wanted to commit it to the post permanently:
Glad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.
However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.
Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).
The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.
However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
Two final closing remarks:
I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:
ev++ Poker Tools Odds Calculation
I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.
The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.
Smells much more like value than bluff to me...
Final Pot: $24.75
UTG wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)
I think I fold also, but the pot-control check messes things up, because now villain might think you have nothing (AK).
ReplyDeleteI actually thought about that aspect as I checked through the turn. However, can I ever expect to see a total river bomb overbet with worse hands? Doesn't turning your hand into a bluff with worse hands have the same effect by betting less than pot or pot? He's going to fold out AK most of the time regardless of his bet size. Moreover, if he puts me on AK, does he want me to fold on the river?
ReplyDeleteI'd also have to assume that if he has AA, he's 4betting? Perhaps I'm wrong, but it seems that we're sufficiently deep stacked where I can stand a small 4bet.
I have to think he's calling fairly wide to my 3bet, given that we're 150BBs deep. Therefore, 22, 88 and a floated JJ are all well within his range.
The only way I can read his river bet is: Either I've got what I repped and I'm calling regardless the price with hands like AA, KK or I'm folding all hands that can't make the call (i.e. non-connected with the board hands).
LOL at any possible thought of folding here. It is impossible that anybody should ever fold in this spot, again especially at this level. Not a chance.
ReplyDeleteHoy - That's a pretty strong statement "LOL... Especially at this level." Your statements allude to the thought that no player at 50NL is a thinking player, which I totally disagree with.
ReplyDeleteHe's a 15/8. He's obviously no push button monkey. He's calling the 3bet wide, here... any decent player would be doing the same; he has decent odds for a set mine.
A river shove from a 15/8 is just so strong that he clearly puts me on AA,KK or air. If he has me on air, why push all in? Doesn't a $20 or $15 or any other pot or less amount accomplish the same effect? If he has me on AA,KK, he figures exactly what you would do: retard reflex snap call and get to show the turned boat.
So I ask, Hoy: Really? You're LOLing that "anybody should ever fold in this spot, again especially at this level"? Give me more information than that; what do you put him on? QQ? AK? AJ?
The argument that I'll present contradicts your non-thinking player at this level argument (somewhat of a semi circular argument): You think he's spazzing / pushing because he knows full well that I can't call with any hands that aren't a full house. Doesn't that mean that he's a thinking player, though, having that intuition? Otherwise, this is a stupid stupid bluff, no? I go back to: the same effect is accomplished by leading pot or less than shoving all in? It seems to me that in my opponent's eyes, this is an "either he's got what he repped by 3betting or he doesn't" type situation. He's getting a call from the hands that he wants to call him (AA,KK, QQ) and getting a fold which he'd get regardless, from hands like AK, AQ.
Why are we "pot-containing" the turn here? Do we hate value? If you assumed that he doesn't have AA here b/c he would always 4-bet pre-flop, are we not getting value from many pocket pairs, flush draws (AhKh, AhQh, 9h10h), etc. ?
ReplyDeleteAlso, when you check behind the turn, you're inviting this type of line on the river since he thinks you never have anything you want to showdown for stacks. If you bet the turn (I don't care what you bet, but I'd suggest 2/3 pot) he never bombs the river like this.
@omgitsjoshua: What when we continue the turn and he check raises all in? Do we call it off for an additional $30-$45? Or is this a bet / fold? I don't see how checking through the turn with the intent of value betting the bricked river is a bad thing. I'm not getting QQ to stack off, nor am I getting 99-TT to.
ReplyDeleteI think you just had an entire argument with me without even letting me participate. I'm not saying there are no thinking players at this level, nor am I insulting anyone who plays at this level in any way, shape or form; however, I am most certainly saying that you can't ever, ever EVER fold in this spot at this level, ever ever and never ever ever if I didn't already say that.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things I always make a point to focus on in my poker play is to "own" the lines I take, and this is a perfect example of just that. You went out of your way to sacrifice value by not betting when you are almost surely ahead on the turn. You basically told him -- willingly and intentionally -- that your flop bet was a c-bet, a bluff, or otherwise weak. To not bet KK on this unbelievably not-scary board, with no possible straight and no possible flush, the only possible take he would have of your turn check is that you are weak.
I'm not critiquing that line one bit, even though it's not a line I think I almost ever take in this spot, not at this level anyways. I fully support you opting to go with that line if you so chose, and I think it can be perfectly +EV as long as it's a variation play and not your normal play in this spot. So I think the line you took is a-ok just fine. BUT, when you choose to deliberately appear weak with a monster pocket pair on the world's least scary board, you have to *own* that line. When he pushes on you after an equally not-scary river card, you simply have have HAVE to call it. At this level, it is in my mind the most basic call in the history of poker.
What board can you concoct that is less scary than this? Are you really saying you are folding a massive overpair every time you act weak on the turn at low limits and someone pushes on you on the river, on one of the only boards you ever find with no possible straight, no possible flush, a super-low pair that almost certainly was not connected with, AND no high cards on it?
Come on man. You simply have have HAVE to call here, and if you do lose, you lose. It happens. I could live with myself easily if I lost $50 making this call, but I can't conceive of living in a world1 where I fold KK in this spot. Honestly, not even once in a million times.
Now, if you lead out on the turn as well and he calls, at least there you have a much better argument to fold when he pushes big on the river. I still probably call ith some frequency in that spot, but I've folded Kings or Aces a gillion times to a guy who raised preflop and then called my reraise, called my bet on the flop and then called my bet again on the turn. On this particular board -- the literal least scary board I could ever conceive of -- I think it's still a questionable fold. But if you bet the turn and got called again, and then he pushes on the river, there you've got a decision and can credibly put him on a set. But with the line you chose to take in this hand, no way no how never ever EVER can you fold here, not ever not once ever ever.
I mean no disrespect by this or my earlier comment. This is just simply not a hand that can justify a fold. It is just tight to the point of getting unmitigatingly abused to fold in this spot.
This is a two part reply, because comments are limited to 4096 characters.
ReplyDeleteGlad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.
However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.
Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).
The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.
However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
ReplyDeleteArgument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
ReplyDeleteArgument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
Two final closing remarks:
I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/equity_calculator/?nplayers=2&ranges=kckd%2Cahkh|aa|kk|qq|jj|tt|99|88&game=holdem&board=2h2s8hjc3s&dead=&range_type=stove
I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.
The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.
Smells much more like value than bluff to me...
I will be totally honest, and in fact I am well aware that I am usually on the receiving end of this comment instead of the giving end, but I did not read all of that anaylsis you provided. You seem like a thinking player and I'm sure there is nothing but good sense in your analysis.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I have repeatedly been of the opinion in my comments on your hands that you rely far too much on your HUD stats for my tastes. That is absolutely not a criticism, but I'm just not a HUD guy and I tend to go more by my feel and less by numbers that I -- through several years of active use of HUD and related products -- have found to be generally not nearly as reliable for decisions on individual hands as many people seem to think.
So, I suppose if you've already decided this is a really tight guy pre and post flop how that weighs the analysis somewhat in your favor. I put zero weight on his HUD stats -- unless you tell me these were over something like 2500 hands or more -- and even if I did, I just find individual poker decisions to be far more weighted towards the individual circumstances of the particular hand in question and much less reliable on generalized stats like those available on HUD. That would be laughably true, for example, with respect to my own play, and I would love to think how badly I could take advantage of anyone who I knew was making individual decisions based on my general HUD stats, because every single hand I play stands alone and I am totally likely to push one time and fold another based on a feel I get from a player in an individual hand. That's what I assume your opponent did in this hand; you obviously do not.
But you kind of lost me in your analysis right from the getgo, when you put him on 88+ or AK. I think he probably calls your reraise with any pocket pair, or AK. I am sure if you narrow his range and make it strong enough, then sure the fold becomes better and better. But I don't agree with your range right from the getgo. I also think you fall into a trap that I used to get accused of all the time back (by idiot bloggers, admittedly) when I used to blog poker hands, in that the level of thought and analysis you put into this hand, and that you attribute to your opponent, is simply not close to the level of analysis that players at 50NL do. in my day on various sites i have logged countless hours of play at 100 nl and 200 nl (and above), and i can say with total certainty that im not sure i *ever* ran into a player at any of those levels who does the level of thinking you are ascribing to this player in your commentary here. Like, not a single one. and that's at a higher level than this.
So without getting in to the rest of the details of your analysis -- which again I am assuming is sound and I am not questioning any part of -- in my view you are starting off too tight in your range for your opponent, based on using generalized HUD stats that i don't think are nearly as reliable as you do, and from there you are ascribing a level of thought and analysis to this guy that i am positive is not done by players even at several levels above 50nl.
To continue, here's my view in a nutshell. the guy raises preflop utg, which could be just about any pocket pair depending on how he's feeling at the time, or any decently high suited ace, maybe a couple of other KQs ot JTs type of hands sprinkled in, something like that. you reraise, and he just calls. most defintely he could be playing trappy with aces there (ive done that a million times, as have you i suppose), but the fact remains that from his actions in not re-reraising you preflop, the best hands become less likely, and the middle-pair and suited aces types of hands become more likely. if i had to guess a specific hand going in, it's a TT type of hand, or maybe AKs. certainly those are more likely than AA (albeit definitely possible) since he did not re-reraise.
ReplyDeleteon the least scary flop in poker history, you cbet, and he calls. AK of hearts is still totally possible of course (any two hearts, really), and i think most TT type of hands will call there as well. most AA hands will i think raise in that spot -- though not all -- but so far nothing ive seen makes me change my suspected hand range for him on the flop.
on the turn it is check-check. once again, AA probably bets or raises here (not always, of course), but another turn check definitely supports the TT sort of hand, as well as the AKs.
then on the river, the big push. its a big push and i dont mean to minimize that. but you acted so weak on the turn, he could easily put you on AK, or on something better that he thinks he can get you off. as i said yesterday, if you had bet the turn and he had called, different story. but with this line, i think almost any hand i thought was in his range preflop and on the flop, and on the turn, could be capable of betting big the river given the action.
i say he had TT or AKs and you laid down bad. my biggest worry would be JJ, which kind of fits everything in the hand quite well, and helps explain the big push on the river, if he thinks you mightve reraised him pre with AA or KK and you might call it.
please dont think im saying you werent possibly behind. of COURSE you could have been behind. i just dont think you can possibly fold here. like i said yesterday, i can easily live with losing $50 calling off with KK and being shown JJ. but i dont think i can live with myself if i let myself get bet off this hand, at this level, for this total amount of money, because of the line i chose to get to this point.
just curious -- you fold this as well, i assume, if you have AA instead of KK? i mean, im trying to figure out what it is you think he has that youre folding to. is it AA that you really fear the most, or is it a boat?
I'm pretty sure I fear the boat the most here. I go back to my original points: It is not "normal" to spaz for 120BBs at 50NL... especially from a 15/8. FWIW, you asked how many hands I have - I have over 1k hands on the villain. Understanding your points certainly, this massive overbet is designed for value moreso than bluff / fold equity.
ReplyDeleteSo you fold even holding AA? What hand do you think he is holding, specifically? JJ, or do you think he made his boat before the river and was stringing you along all along?
ReplyDeleteI think it's even closer (obviously), but I think I'm still folding AA here. The bluff simply does not make sense. It's a HUGE overshove. Perhaps I'm overthinking this, but if he wants to bluff, would be overshove like this, risking the chance that I call with a hand "I simply cannot lay down" or does he bluff with a $15-$25 bet? I mean, if the check through the turn shows weakness, does he really want to clobber it and risk that his read is wrong?
ReplyDeleteI looked back at this hand and looked at the player. The exact data I have on him (which weakens my argument) is I have precisely 158 hands on him. However, in those 158 hands, he's NEVER shown down. He's never stacked off; in fact, he's always been entirely weak, with this pot being the second largest pot he's won at any of my tables. I would categorize him as a weak-tight player, folding at the slightest hint of trouble. Obviously the former hurts my argument but the latter helps it. I still think fold is the correct move.
ReplyDeleteall your reasoning is ok for folding river and i agree with most of them BUT
ReplyDelete#1 i dont like your bet size on flop i'll make it 8$
#2 i dont like checking behind on turn where there is flush draw possible and cos u dont have Kh it makes more likely that he has AhKh in his range so imo u r loosing value vs whole his calling range on turn which is imo 77+,AhKh
so i will bet turn ~60%pot and most likely that will be bet/fold vs this 15/8 villain
and if he calls i'll check behind on any river except K obv
btw i think his shoving range on river is JJ,88,22,AhKh,AA,QQ,KK