Thursday, June 30, 2011

Apropo topic of Freakonomics: Predicting the future

Interesting entry today; not saying it's directly related to any fellow bloggers, but an excerpt from Levitt's opinion:

"...the person who makes that prediction has a strong incentive to remind everyone that they made that crazy prediction which came true.
...if you’re wrong, there’s no person on the other side of the transaction who draws any real benefit from embarrassing you by bring up the bad prediction over and over."

Link if you're interested...

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Bad beat jackpot

First time I've ever been involved in a "Bad Beat" hand.  Too bad for the loser that he didn't know he qualified for a jackpot:

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $20.40
UTG+2: $62.65
MP1: $22.40
Hero (MP2): $31.70
CO: $24.25
BTN: $21.79
SB: $39.27
BB: $57.85
UTG: $22.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with Kh Kd
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.85, 4 folds
This is a reasonably tight player (11/9 @ 654 hands).  He's overly aggressive and likely to overplay most hands.
Flop: ($2.05) Jc Kc 3d (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05
When the K flops, I'm a little scared that he won't bet the turn.  However, he just continues right through like the second K wasn't even there...

Turn: ($6.15) Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.53, Hero calls $2.53
Since I have history with him, I know he's likely to fold to a raise so I continue to call in position.

River: ($11.21) Ah (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.06, Hero raises to $26.27 all in, UTG+1 calls $6.91 all in
And he binks his 2 outter.

Final Pot: $41.15
UTG+1 shows As Ac
Hero shows Kh Kd
Hero wins $39.10
(Rake: $2.05)

Thursday, June 23, 2011

What would you do? #239 - A coin flip?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
The Hand History Converter

CO: $27.67
BTN: $12.43
SB: $42.30 - 42/11 / 0%3bet / 2.1AF / 86% cbet / 50% fold to cbet @ 86 hands
BB: $29.74
Hero (UTG): $68.91
UTG+1: $27.04
MP1: $38.58
MP2: $25.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Jc Ac
Hero raises to $0.75, 5 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Ok.  So villain is a fish.  He sees a lot of hands, and to date, has won money by betting big (bluffing) or people not believing him when he hits his improbable hands.  He is most aggressive on the river.  He has shown down all manner of hands including AK, etc.  He loves to flat his monsters when facing a PFR.

Flop: ($1.75) Ad Jh Kc (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.00, SB raises to $12.50, Hero folds
I think my mistake in this hand is raising his lead.  There are 5 hands that beat me here: AA (unlikely), AK (more likely), JJ (unlikely), KK (possibly, but not likely), and QT (very likely).  On the flip side, there are 2 hands that I am crushing: AQ, KJ.  He can also be bluffing, but I can't see him bluffing HUGE like this, on the flop.

It seems to me that it comes down to the above situation, and given that we're so deep, I fold the hand with minimal loss.

Weak, I know, but the action and pushback that I was getting on this hand seemed like Aces up was beat.

As an aside, I would go on to later take his entire $60-70 stack from his all-too-frequent river bluffs from my turn checks.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Still here...

I'm a little rusty on the poker front; I've been studying for the GMAT and putting a most of my time into the college application process (essays, etc.).  I finally took the GMAT this past Saturday (scored greater than the necessary minimum for entrance to JHU - FTW!) and was able to put a bit of time into online poker games.  I guess I shook the rust off fairly quickly, because I put a death grip on the Bodog 25NL ballers.  I pushed my bankroll up 8+ buy ins in 2 somewhat short sessions.

The upswing is a huge relief to me because in limited time (approx. 4400 hands over the past month), I've been on such a terrible downswing.  I hope that this recent upswing will translate to live poker, as I'd like to get in a few live sessions at a B&M poker room.  We'll see; I'd like to head over to Charles Town with Heffmike, if we can both agree on a date / time.  Anyway, brag for the day below:

Of course, after posting entry, I fully expect to run like poop again.  See the "Rules of Run Good."

Monday, June 20, 2011

Online Poker Takes a Few Steps Closer to Reality

An update on the latest battles for online poker.

From The Motley Fool:

The debate over online gaming, poker in particular, has been raging since the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act was passed in 2006. But there have been a few recent developments that take online poker a few steps closer to reality. Upcoming budget debates, as Republicans have resisted tax increases, may be just the opening a few key members of Congress need...

Click for the rest of the article.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

What would you do? #238 - Is this reasonable?

Sorry - it was a Bodog freeroll / no HH, but a re-creation below:

Blinds 30/60

Relevant stacks:

Me (BTN) 2090 chips
Aggrodonk (UTG+2) 2301.25 chips

UTG+2 raises to 210.  I 3bet the BTN to 750.  He flats.

Flop is 5d2d3c.  I plan to shove all flops on a 3bet 1590 pot.  I have 1340 remaining.

He calls with 7d6d.  The turn & river are the 9 & 5 of hearts, so I scoop.

Who is the donkey?  Should I be shoving all flops or should this be checked down?

I honestly don't feel as though I did anything wrong, but it feels like an awkward shove.  FWIW, when I shoved, I had 40% equity.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Two well-played hands last night

I've been playing around with checking the TP flop and finding that I get a lot of value on later streets because the villain can't put me on a hand.  Risky, yes, but I can certainly lay down a hand (as proven time & time again on this blog - whether right or wrong...).

27/18 @ 11 hands:
Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $19.50
MP: $17.40
CO: $15.15
BTN: $28.55
SB: $22.47
Hero (BB): $48.37
UTG: $24.51

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Jc Kh
2 folds, MP calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) 3h Jd 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.50) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3.50, MP calls $2

River: ($8.50) 6s (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, MP calls $4

Final Pot: $16.50
Hero shows Jc Kh
Hero wins $15.70
(Rake: $0.80)

This hand was somewhat surprising, but I think my image gets the best of him.  He knows that I'm a LAG and capable of c/r'ing the turn with equity draws.  He also knows I'm capable of shoving the river with busted draws.  Clearly, the Q does not make any draws.

22/8/4.8%3bet / 2.5AF / 30+% cbet on each street @ 1.4k hands
Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $31.35
MP2: $27.66
CO: $14.39
BTN: $51.79
SB: $10.92
BB: $30.24
UTG: $41.17
UTG+1: $24.50
UTG+2: $15.20

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Qh Kd
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) 2h Kh 7d (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $2.25, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.60) 3s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero raises to $11.00, BTN calls $6.50
I plan to shove all rivers.

River: ($30.60) Qs (2 players)
Hero bets $16.85 all in, BTN calls $16.85

Final Pot: $64.30
Hero shows Qh Kd
BTN shows Td Tc
Hero wins $61.30
(Rake: $3.00)

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