What would you do? #218 - Fold KK PF?

I'm getting back into Rush poker a bit after watching Veneer's 25NL Rush Cardrunners video.  An interesting read, if you're so inclined, is about his $200 -> $10K bankroll challenge.  Check it out.

Following is from Rush poker $25NL:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $9.75
CO: $10.92
BTN: $25.00
SB: $6.62
BB: $25.00  - 12/9 / 2.3% 3bet / 0% squeeze @ 107 hands
UTG: $32.60
UTG+1: $31.09
UTG+2: $61.69
Hero (MP1): $30.57

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Kh Kd
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, BB raises to $2.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $6.25, BB raises to $25 all in, 1 fold



I think this is the first time I've ever 3bet folded KK PF.  This guy's stats are so strong that he's repping AA and only AA.  If it helps my case, this was the 2nd time he 3bet in all of the hands I've seen with him.
 
Final Pot: $12.60

What would you do? #203 - Deep stacked with an unknown facing a turn overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $124.10
BB: $26.60
UTG: $31.30
UTG+1: $180.05
UTG+2: $40.85
MP1: $76.95 - 38/13/1.0AF @ 8 hands
MP2: $94.80
Hero (CO): $84.80
BTN: $151.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ad Kh
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($9.75) 7d As 6c (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $5, MP1 calls $5

Turn: ($19.75) 6s (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12.50, MP1 raises to $67.45 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???



Click to see results

Hero calls $54.95
My thought is this: I have 8 hands on the guy , and this is a pretty dry flop. If he hit a set of 7's or 6's on the flop, so be it, but is he overbet shoving the turn for value? More than likely, he's min raising, or 2.5x with the intention of shoving the river instead.

I also started thinking about 6x hands, but I think it fairly unlikely for him to continue to my decent flop lead... Unlikely, though not unheard of. Therefore, I certainly considered the 6x hands as well, but ruled them out for the same reason of the set type hands.

Summed up, I make the call for the deep stacks.

River: ($154.65) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $154.65
MP1 shows Ac 4c (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero shows Ad Kh (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $151.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #202 - Overbet for value

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $119.10
UTG+1: $53.60
UTG+2: $45.20
MP1: $62.55
MP2: $58.60
CO: $40.00
BTN: $129.20
Hero (SB): $112.95
BB: $51.85 - 13 / 8 / 1.6%3bet / 25% steal / 2.7 AF / 725 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ts 9d
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) 8d Qc 6h (3 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25, MP2 folds

Turn: ($4.00) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB raises to $5.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $4.75
I think he pretty clearly has a set at this point. Set or two pair; I don't think he's folding either way.

River: ($24.00) Kd (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $101.20 all in, BB calls $40.10 all in
And I hit him with the overbet.

Final Pot: $104.20
Hero shows Ts 9d (a straight, Ten high)
BB mucks 8h 8s
Hero wins $101.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #201 - Bet / fold or check / fold?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $189.95
UTG: $54.15
UTG+1: $69.45
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $20.75
Hero (MP2): $90.90
CO: $48.40
BTN: $50.00 - 15 / 12 / 5.2% 3bet / 20% steal / 7% sqz / 2.9AF @ 235 hands
SB: $26.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Jd Kd
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BTN raises to $3.75, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($8.25) 6d Ah 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($8.25) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

River: ($18.25) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $41.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
The question is did I simply waste $10 or is this a insta-fold? I think the hand starts off screwed up where I call the 3bet, but this guy's 3bet on the button was around 10%.

Final Pot: $38.25
BTN wins $36.35
(Rake: $1.90)

What would you do? #200 - Paired board + 3flush to strong river bet

Been busy with work lately; sorry for the lack of posts.  As a result, I've been playing Rush quite a bit.  Here's a hand for you:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $40.00
CO: $119.25 - 11/8/4.4% 3bet/ 21 %steal / 1.9AF @ 200 hands
BTN: $43.25
SB: $221.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $355.75
UTG+1: $167.95
UTG+2: $75.70
MP1: $49.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Qd Qh
Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 8c 5c Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($35.50) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($35.50) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
No idea about this one. I'm beating bluffs, clearly. Is this guy calling PF with Tx? I don't think so. Is he calling with AKc or some such combo? Perhaps. It just feels much more like a value bet coming from this guy. Check raise the flop with 2 overs + flush draw. Check through the turn for a freebie. Yada yada yada...

Final Pot: $35.50
CO wins $33.75
(Rake: $1.75)