Monday, November 8, 2010

What would you do? #203 - Deep stacked with an unknown facing a turn overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

SB: $124.10
BB: $26.60
UTG: $31.30
UTG+1: $180.05
UTG+2: $40.85
MP1: $76.95 - 38/13/1.0AF @ 8 hands
MP2: $94.80
Hero (CO): $84.80
BTN: $151.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ad Kh
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($9.75) 7d As 6c (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $5, MP1 calls $5

Turn: ($19.75) 6s (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12.50, MP1 raises to $67.45 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero calls $54.95
My thought is this: I have 8 hands on the guy , and this is a pretty dry flop. If he hit a set of 7's or 6's on the flop, so be it, but is he overbet shoving the turn for value? More than likely, he's min raising, or 2.5x with the intention of shoving the river instead.

I also started thinking about 6x hands, but I think it fairly unlikely for him to continue to my decent flop lead... Unlikely, though not unheard of. Therefore, I certainly considered the 6x hands as well, but ruled them out for the same reason of the set type hands.

Summed up, I make the call for the deep stacks.

River: ($154.65) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $154.65
MP1 shows Ac 4c (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero shows Ad Kh (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $151.65
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. easy fold. don't go broke on one pair (and don't tell me this is technically 2-pair)

  2. Well, you wish you knew a little bit more about this fellow than eight hands...considering the amount of time you play this level, he probably isn't a reg, and even though it's been eight hands, he's been splashing it around early.

    I disgree that it is an easy fold...unless you're dead certain he's got 77, A6, something that puts you way behind. I don't think 77 is likely to flat with an Ace out there, and a suited a6 was maybe a likely preflop flat, but again, unlikely... Of course, I hit a place just like this live last week, and sure enough, he flopped a set.

  3. I agree with your logic here. He likely came to gamble it up a bit, as he has already played 38%. I know I say sample size to you often enough that I'm contradicting myself, but I think I make the call.

  4. I thought it was a pretty easy call when reading for the first time against this opponent even it was only a few hands.

  5. Agree with matt tag. I think whether you have 8 hands on a villain or no hands on a villain, this is more often a correct fold. If I made these types of assumptions about most 50NL Rush players' game, I think I'd be getting in to deep trouble. With that said if you had 100 hands on the villain and the stats were the same, I think your good often enough to here.

  6. The Click Here link doesn't always work on every post. Can you please fix? Thanks!

  7. Weird... I'm not sure what the difference is, but when I click the individual post page and click the see results, it works. However, from the main page, it doesn't seem to work. Not sure what's causing that. Will look into it.


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