Sometimes you gotta give 'em enough rope...

It's been a few months since my last post - I haven't had much of an update to bring you, so I've been radio silent.  I'm presently fully engaged with my new gig, working an absurd amount of hours just to keep my head above water.  The new role has been very challenging, and I’m very happy I pursued it – if nothing else, from a career perspective, I’ll come out far ahead because I’ve moved from a front line management position to a mid-level management of managers.  I’ve had to work with personnel problems and issues, hiring, interviewing and coordinating new employees, maneuvering with upper management including corporate oversight, all the while ensuring program success.  It’s been fun, without a doubt, but it leaves me with little time to play poker even though by all rites, I should have more free time available than when I’m back in DC with my family.

I’ve been typically playing on the weekends while here – putting in a Saturday or Sunday session good for about 6-8 hours, which is nice.  I’ve always had a hunch that weekend sessions would be far more profitable than weekdays / after work sessions, but never had a chance to really prove that theorem out with hard data.  Given the time I’ve had to play since being out here, I can say with some authority that yes, indeed, weekends are far more profitable than weekdays (though it’s not a true apples to apples comparison since I’m playing weekends out in Blackhawk as compared to weekdays / after work sessions in Charles Town, WV or Maryland Live! Casino.  Regardless, I digress; the crux of this post is to not regale you with tales of what is a good day to play, or how to spend your free time – I wanted to write about a hand that I played this past Tuesday night (first weekday session up at Blackhawk).  It has to deal with checking the river to induce, and the fact that I’ve noticed more bet bet bet than bet bet check – I feel as though in the right situation, a check call is warranted when you feel your opponent is on a draw rather than going for 3 straight streets of value.  See below:

I had been around for a few orbits and was showing myself as a fairly reasonable player.  The old man to my left was joking with me that I played like an old man; a “rock” was his exact wording…  Fine – believe as you may though I am rarely rocking it up by just calling in a hand; I’m usually raising / folding or betting and am the general aggressor at the table, but I’m not going to try to disprove his image of me.  So we’re set up that I’m in the SB and look down at Ac2c; an appetizing hand to limp but not generally a raising hand.  After seeing the kid to my left limp his button (my prior comment to the aforementioned old man to my left was “Chop?” before seeing the button limp) – I opted to raise as a punishment.  I chose $16 to really hammer it home that in my mind, it’s bullshit that this kid is limping his button to block our chop.  Old man folds his cards, as old men are wont to do when facing a decent raise – and kid gets sticky and calls.

As an aside, I never understood the whole limp / call a large raise idea…  Unless you feel like I’m blowing smoke up your bunghole, you have to drop that hand – particularly as it works its way around to heads up.  There’s simply no real value to your hand unless you slow played (and continue to slow play) a monster PF hand.  This kid is the type to be coming in for a raise on the BTN with AJ+ and most pairs, so he’s clearly weak – and calling $16 further solidifies my read of weakness.

Anyway, the flop comes 2s7sJs – mostly an airball to all hands not holding 2 spades.  It’s fairly unlikely he’s limp / calling 2 spades – particularly premium spades here – so I’m not all that concerned by a flopped flush, and I’m semi-concerned for a Jx hand –JT, QJ, but that’s no reason to not continuation bet – there are tons of blank spades that will call along to try to get a 4 flush board.  I’m fairly certain that my bottom pair deuces is the best hand here at this point, and I want a spade draw to pay.  I bet $20 on the flop and he quickly calls – another dead giveaway…  He can flop the flush here and just flat, but a monster non-flush hand has to raise here, in addition to his quick call almost always pointing to a draw (when a player quickly calls, that’s a common tell to a drawing hand).

$75 in the pot going into the turn 9x.  I’m pretty sure that misses his hand; at this point he’s on a definitive As, Ks – type hand, and more likely a KsTx or KsQx hand.  He can show KsJx and Ks9, but his AsJx is out of the question (he limped PF) and As9x would have likely folded to my raise.  He’s now halved his equity  at this point in the hand, and I’m very confident my deuces are good – I bet $40 into the $75 pot – again, snap call.  This solidifies my drawing assumption – most made flushes are raising the turn here given that I’ve put a bunch of money in the pot already and $40 is a “sizeable” turn bet – notwithstanding pot size.
Anyway, $155 in the pot and the river is the 5x, making a board of 2s7sJs9x5x.  At this point, I’m getting no more value by betting the hand.  I’m only getting called by better and only folding out worse hands – and I do have showdown value.  Besides, my hand has showdown value.  From my out of position SB, why not just check and see what he does?  I can opt to call or fold to a potential river bet, allowing him to hang himself (see title line) based on how I read the situation.  Moreover, my bet sizing is questionable on the river; I have to bet pretty big to keep in line with my pattern, or make a small “suck me” bet of like $20 – both feel like throwing money away regardless.  Therefore, I opt to check – and true to form, he bets $50 – a shockingly small bet for the pot size and the action I’ve given.  One additional thought is that he’s called 2 streets and now all of a sudden wants to take control?  What can he possibly be betting here for value and not checking through for safety?  I snap him off and wait for him to show: busted flush draw with KsQx.  I show my Ac2c and he’s mystified.  Bad enough I called his bluff, but I called with the lowest pair.  It was a nice pot for A2.

In retrospect, as I’m writing this post, I’ve been doing this type of move more and more often – both online and live.  I’ve found that I’m getting around a 50% success rate in this kind of check / call out of position rivers – which is awesome because it’s pure profit; these are mostly hands that are folding to a bet, but feel they have a chance to fold out the best hand on the river and therefore take a chance on the river.  Think about the above the next time you find yourself out of position, against a guy clearly on a draw, where you’re never getting any more money committed to the pot unless he’s betting it.  Obviously, use the reverse when you’re the one with no showdown value but have bet two streets – sometimes you need to force the issue rather than let the stupid pairing 3’s on the river counterfeit your Ace high hand…

An update and a hand history

I’ve been very busy with the new job – so far, it’s been way more responsibility than I ever imagined prior to taking the job.  I’ve had to hire a new team of ~30 people, work personnel conflicts and issues, learn the new program’s processes and procedures, and ensure my new team is doing the same, all the while learning my predecessor’s roles and responsibilities.  I’m truly busy from before 7:30 I the morning until at least 5:00 at night.  The pattern has been that I go back to the hotel, go to the gym, get some dinner, take a soak in the hotel hot tub and go to sleep.  Rinse & repeat, save for the weekends, where, if I’m not heading home or somewhere with my family, I have free time to go & explore Denver or get in a solid day of poker up at Blackhawk.  It’s a funny thing; I started out thinking that the “single” life would enable me to have more free time, but somehow my free time is fully consumed.

Regardless, live poker out here is an utter joke.  The games are so soft it’s unbelievable.  Sit on the nuts and they’ll pay you off without fail.  People love to slow play, making drawing hands super profitable.  The bet sizing for most players is so laughably bad that I find myself facing true immediate odds compared to the pot, and frequently not even needing to worry or think about implied odds.  The room is regularly busy, with more than enough fish and tourists to keep my bankroll sated.  I’ve seen so many people just call or limp their KK / AA hands, and check / call to the end when their hands are clearly dead.  I’ve seen players pay me astronomical prices for their flush draws or their straight draws when they’re so way behind in their draws.  Lastly, the rewards structure in the poker room (Ameristar) is pretty decent: they give you your choice of $1 / hr in comps to be used for slots, $2 / hr in comps for food, or $0.50 / hr in rakeback.  Your choice – and you can decide to cash out at any point.

In the online front, it’s been a long time since I’ve had a moment to sit down and get a good online poker session in.  I was able to sit down for a good 3 hours last night, sitting in my new favorite online room, Seals with Clubs.  I was afraid that it had been so long since I’d last played a hand there, the games may have dried up and I would forget how to be aggressive.  My fears were not realized, because the fish were really fishy and my aggression still remains.  I’m still able to pick off blind steals, squeeze with air, and generally produce 3bets in the 8%+ range.  It’s a cool feeling to see the regs avoiding big pots with me out of fear, and the fish trying to pay big bets in the hopes of hitting a miracle.  On one table, all of the players were starting to get pretty deep; 200+BB.

I was sitting on 300+BB when I was dealt TT.  A laggy nemesis was trying to 3bet me on quite a few tables (he was to my left and trying to defend his blinds / BTN); we’d gotten into a few pissing contests and we were roughly even as far as who blinks first – perhaps he was 20-30 BB up on me (I’m not keeping track because I’m more thinking in metagame parameters that he’ll blow up sooner or later).  He’s sitting on about 300BB when I raise his BTN from the HJ for ~3x – no limpers and it’s a steal position from his perspective.  As expected, he opts to 3bet me 3x to 9BB.  Not one to be dissuaded from a little aggression, I 4bet him to 22BB and he cold calls in position.  Flop comes 9 6 2 rainbow and I lead for 30BB.  He shoves over for 250BB; is it wrong to call here?  What do you do?  Do you fold?  This is such a polarizing bet to value / air, but what can he show up with in this spot?  JJ?  QQ?  I felt like given the action that he’s not 5 betting me (probably a fold PF), he’s going to show up with so much air.  The problem is that we’re so deep at this point, a 250BB call if I’m way behind is a HUGE mistake.

Thoughts?

Quality poker time up in Black Hawk, CO

I know... I know...  Things have been incredibly slow around here for the past couple months - and they've been even slower lately, since I've been so inundated with work.

Quick update on the work front:  Things are going very well.  I love the new role I've taken within the company, but the 10-fold increase in responsibility just leaves me with time to work work work rather than play.  I effectively work from 7:30 to around 5 (boo-hoo, I know), get back to the hotel, go work out, eat dinner, and have time to catch up on work emails that I missed throughout the day / watch a show & go to bed.  The pattern marginally sucks because I'm away from my family and working so much, but it's only another 3 months until I'm back at home and things will revert back to normal - and I actually enjoy doing the work, which makes a world of difference in the happiness scale.  In the meantime, though, I need to learn everything I can in order to successfully migrate my team from CO to Maryland.

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Over the weekend, my coworker and I drove up to Black Hawk to play a little poker.  He's a beginner, so we were going over pot odds vs. implied odds vs. real odds and the rule of 2x and 4x for calculating outs, in addition to other poker fundamentals.  I did not play at the same table as him (purposely), so I couldn't really evaluate his play, but I think he enjoyed himself.  I think the conversation on the drive up was eye-opening to him; I doubt he realized that there's so much more to poker than just playing your hands.

Anyway, I wound up spending a solid 7 hours up there - one of my longer sessions on the year.  I was card dead for the majority of the night - I decided to track which hands (folded or un-folded) would have been winners by pulling $1 chips out of my stack and keeping a separate count.  In the 7 hours of play, I wound up with about 15 winning hands.  I suppose I shouldn't do that; it only winds up with negative thoughts going through my head - but oh well.  I maximized most of those 15 hands, because I came out to the positive.  I do have one hand of note to share, and it's a somewhat interesting hand - no doubt controversial:

Ground rule - at Blackhawk, the fixed max bet is $100, so the 1/2 NL game is really a 1/2 $2-$100 spread limit game with uncapped buy in.

I'm sitting on around $350, and villain has me covered easily.  He moved from a 2/5 game - he's a solid, yet unimaginative ABC player.  He's always betting the nuts - or what he perceives as the nuts, and check / calling when he's drawing.  He can fold hands.

I limp UTG+1 with A7cc and the BTN, a tight 60-ish gentleman bumps it to $10 - the BB (villain) calls, I come along, as does one other to my left.  $40 in the pot PF.

Flop comes: 3 4 6 - two spades.  It checks to the original raiser who leads for $15.  BB calls, I call and other dude folds.  $85 in the pot.

Turn is a beautiful off suit 5.  BB immediately loads up for $35 - a "large-ish" bet from him.  I consider raising but I squarely put BB on an 7.  I don't think he ever bluffs in this spot, with 3 way action and him being first to act.  If I raise here, it pushes out the original raiser with near certainty, and sets the hand up for a chop - something I'd rather avoid if possible, since it looks like we're chopping anyway.  Therefore, I call, but to my chagrin, original raiser folds quickly.  $155 in the pot.

River is a very interesting Ks, completing the flush.  Now, I've never raised, never shown any aggression.  To all observers, I could easily be on a flush draw, and I'm keenly aware of this fact.  I look at the villain who immediately checks.  I waste no time in max betting $100, and he thinks and thinks - says to me that he never calls for a chop before mucking his hand.  I show him the 7c which drives him up the wall.

It's cool when a plan comes together!  Anyone else at the table, and that bet is hopeless - "How can I fold my straight!??!?  It was good on the turn, even though the 3flush completed, it's got to be good on the river!!!" but this guy: "I'd rather fold and be wrong than call and be wrong."

Churn and turn in the Meister family

Things have been reasonably quiet for me in the poker world.  I've been running like poop in the live setting - continual suckouts, normal bullshit.  In the online arena, I've been crushing; it's always a pendulum...

In the coming 3 weeks, I will hopefully have plenty of time to ply my live poker trade in Tampa, FL though, in the hopes that a change in scenery will allow me to shake off the run bads of the live poker scene in Maryland.  It's always nice to go to Florida, enjoy good meals and nice hotels at the expense of my company.  We'll see if the Florida poker scene goes better than the last time I was there - where I was card dead for most of my time.

This post, alas, is not a poker post.  It's more of a life post.  Overall, things have been bleak at work for quite some time - we don't have new work coming in, and the work that we do have is clearly destined to not cover the employees currently on staff.  Therefore, I predict there will be staff reductions.  Now, I consider myself adaptive - willing to change with a fluid situation, and therefore don't allow my career to stagnate.  Rather than wait for the inevitable layoffs to occur, I have taken it upon myself to look for programs and projects elsewhere.  Since I am fortunate enough to have both a pension and generous 401(k) through my work, I have given priority my current employer, conducting a job search first within my company.  I forecast that the work "cliff" that the employees face will happen in mid-March, allowing a month and a half to find other employment.

Seeing this "cliff," I started applying for jobs back in November, allowing myself plenty of time to pick and choose.  However, there isn't a ton of work available within the company.  The reality is that in my line of work, there is a shrinking customer base because our customer's priority is to reduce expenditures.  I have been completely upfront with the management team that I report to, and they are well aware (and encouraging me) that I am looking for other work.  In fact, they recommended an open requisition that I applied for when I first started looking.  Prior to Christmas, I had a phone screen interview where I apparently impressed them.

Last Tuesday, I was invited for an in-person interview - they put me in for an additional job as well (without my knowledge).  Given the information, I felt they stacked the deck in my favor, giving me a selection of jobs; one job has overarching responsibility for 30+ engineers, and the other would report the the overarching job and be responsible for ~5-10 engineers.  Needless to say, I was offered the bigger job yesterday.  It couldn't have been more perfect: I am getting a nice salary increase, keeping my current benefits, and most importantly taking a new role with the company that very possibly could propel me to an upper management role within a few years.  Perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, but I'm very excited to take my new position.  The job will be a challenge - I've never managed ~30 people before - but I think I'm up to the test!

The new job does not come without downside, however.  A stipulation of the job is that I will be traveling for the next 4 months to Denver, CO.  While I'm not one to shy away from travel, I will be away from my wife and children for weeks at a time.  Hopefully, I can work out something whereby I travel home on weekends and milestones / scheduled vacation.  Regardless, I think there's plenty to do out in Denver - Black Hawk poker rooms, Breckenridge skiing, hiking, perhaps catching a Rockies baseball game (I'll be there 4 months starting mid-February so I'll be done by mid-May, early baseball season), etc.  Do any of my readers have experience with the Denver area?

I've been trying to find information about te Black Hawk poker rooms, but can't find anything.  What are the deals / comps / good action rooms?  From my understanding, there's the Ameristar, the Golden Gates, Lodge Casino and Isle Casino.  How do they compare from one another?  What is the best skiing in relation to Denver?  I only mentioned Breckenridge because I've heard of it before.  Is it good there?  What other activities are typical of the area?  I'm figuring it'll be a granola-type place, with a lot of earthy people.

FWIW, probably not gonna try the newly-legal weed!  Don't know how well that would go over with the job...