Wednesday, November 23, 2011

What would you do? #241 - Rivered two pair

Bodog $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $28.20
SB: $51.45 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 1.5, Hands: 325
Hero (BB): $249.46
UTG: $8.71
MP: $45.54
CO: $26.24

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 6s Jc
UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) 5d 6c Qc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, UTG calls $1, SB calls $1

Turn: ($4.50) 2s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($4.50) Js (3 players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero raises to $15, UTG folds, SB raises to $49.95, Hero ???

Click to see results

Villain is a semi-competent reg. I simply can't see him stacking off with worse than 2 pair like this... He check / calls the flop and, without position, checks the turn hoping for a bet. I don't oblige, not necessarily out of fear of him hitting the straight, but because my hand isn't all that strong. However, by the river, I have improved to two pair - and a lot of players are taking a swipe at this pot since I checked through the turn - hence the river raise. Again, though, is he ever stacking off with worse than middle two pair? I just can't see it - and mama always said, "Don't go broke on a limped pot." Hero folds

Final Pot: $34.50
SB wins $32.80
(Rake: $1.70)

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Quads again?!?!?!

Bodog $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $44.75
BB: $50.00
UTG: $43.75
Hero (UTG+1): $86.66
MP1: $23.33
MP2: $43.50
CO: $28.05
BTN: $29.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ad 8d
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($2.00) 8c 8s 4h (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $2.00, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($6.00) 8h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($6.00) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $6.00, BTN calls $6

Final Pot: $18.00
Hero shows Ad 8d
Hero wins $17.10
(Rake: $0.90)

FWIW, since Bodog doesn't publish losing / folded hands. I think the villain showed up with 64o.

Monday, November 21, 2011

How often do you see this?

Bodog $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $63.08 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 7, 3B: 2, AF: 1.6, Hands: 5904
BB: $50.20 - VPIP: 39, PFR: 13, 3B: 2, AF: 1.6, Hands: 325
UTG: $6.31 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 27, 3B: 11, AF: 0.3, Hands: 37
UTG+1: $51.04 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 0.8, Hands: 26
UTG+2: $45.45 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 6, 3B: 3, AF: 7.4, Hands: 3982
MP1: $51.34 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 3.3, Hands: 71
MP2: $50.14 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 2.0, Hands: 1565
Hero (CO): $87.01 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 19, 3B: 6, AF: 2.7, Hands: 106923
BTN: $46.26 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 2, 3B: 1, AF: 2.6, Hands: 1652

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 9h 7c
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($3.00) Kd 4h 7h (6 players)
SB bets $2.25, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $2.25, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($12.00) Jh (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $7.00, MP2 raises to $14.50, Hero folds, SB calls $14.50, UTG+1 calls $7.50

River: ($55.50) Tc (3 players)
SB bets $21.50, UTG+1 calls $21.50, MP2 raises to $32.89, SB calls $11.39, UTG+1 calls $11.39

Final Pot: $154.17
SB shows Qh Th - Q high flush
UTG+1 shows 5h Kh - K high flush
MP2 shows Ah 3h - A high flush
MP2 wins $151.17
(Rake: $3.00)


FWIW, I also had the 9h

Friday, November 18, 2011

First Straight Flush, now featuring Quads

Bodog $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $58.10
MP1: $19.25
MP2: $50.00
Hero (CO): $147.44
BTN: $48.50
SB: $20.40
BB: $46.55
UTG: $90.12

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 2d 2c
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) 2h 2s 9c (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $4.31, Hero calls $4.31, SB folds

Turn: ($14.37) 7s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.50, Hero calls $8.50

River: ($31.37) Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $25.00, UTG+1 folds

Final Pot: $31.37
Hero mucks 2d 2c
Hero wins $29.82
(Rake: $1.55)

Thursday, November 17, 2011

What would you do? #240 - Straight on a paired board

Bodog $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $262.59
CO: $97.00 - 28 / 6 / 1.9%3bet @ 135 hands / 3.8 AF; inf aggression on turn & riv in 16 & 9 turns & rivs
BTN: $168.03
SB: $99.00
BB: $37.05
UTG: $124.50
UTG+1: $94.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with Js Qh
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 8h 8d Th (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, CO calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $8.00, CO raises to $39.50, Hero ???
Click to see results

I think I'm making a huge error by calling the turn and folding the river; therefore the river call is automatic.  I also think an an argument can be made for folding the turn, as villain has clearly established a boat- or straight- type hand with the paired board.  I can't put him on TT, though, as I've been opening somewhat liberally in late position - a fact he's well aware of.  However, I'm also thinking in terms of 98o.  It's just such a small part of his range to play like this.

I think an argument can be made for flatting the turn vs. shoving the turn, if you opt to continue with the hand.  Flatting the turn, like in this example, allows the villain to shove the river.  However, there are so many bad river cards that can come up.  I don't know... what do you think?

Hero calls $31.50

River: ($94.50) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $50.50 all in, Hero calls $50.50

Final Pot: $195.50
Hero shows Js Qh
CO shows 6s 6c
Hero wins $192.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Flopped straight flush

It's been awhile since I caught one of these.  I think I should lead the flop here, given the turn action.  However, I get an okay payout for the stone cold nuts...



Bodog $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $89.00
BTN: $39.85
SB: $73.80
BB: $100.00
UTG: $43.20
UTG+1: $96.50
UTG+2: $98.50
Hero (MP1): $113.15
MP2: $117.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with 6s 8s
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5s 7s 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($7.50) 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, CO raises to $12.00, Hero raises to $20.00, CO calls $8
Assuming he has a set or As; I should have led flop.

River: ($47.50) 4d (2 players)
Hero bets $30.00, CO folds

Final Pot: $47.50
Hero mucks 6s 8s
Hero wins $45.15
(Rake: $2.35)

Friday, October 28, 2011

A bad feeling, but not such a tough laydown...

Bodog $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $72.03
SB: $50.00
BB: $54.55
UTG: $38.65 - 42/29 @ 24 hands
UTG+1: $50.00
MP1: $151.31
MP2: $63.40
CO: $56.85 - 21/5 /1.8 3bet% @ 489 hands

UTG+1 posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is BTN with Qh Qc
UTG raises to $1.00, 3 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, UTG calls $3
Such a small raise gives me set mining odds, more or less.  I've decided that dependent on what CO does on the flop, I'm instamucking.  His range is pretty small here; JJ+ with a heavier weighting towards KK+.

Flop: ($13.25) 6c 9c 3d (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $9.93, Hero folds, UTG raises to $34.65 all in, CO calls $24.72

Turn: ($82.55) 7c (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($82.55) Qs (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $82.55
UTG shows Ad Ah
CO shows Kc Kh
UTG wins $79.55
(Rake: $3.00)

I actually had the CO on AA, and figured the UTG for JJ or TT.  Interesting but a cooler.  Too bad I was able to lay it down; look at the river.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Dancing with the Stars... Charity Gala

I doubt this post will connect with any of my 15 readers out there, as it is non-poker related.  Regardless, last night, my wife and I attended a charity event for The Jewish Foundation for Group Homes, a non-sectarian, 501(c)(3), non-profit organization, providing support and services for individuals with disabilities in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.  The theme of the night was Dancing with the Stars, where we were treated to a host of former and current Dancing with the Stars performers.

Although I won't admit to don't watch the show, my wife is an avid fan, watching both the competition and elimination shows, as well as keeping pace with the activities of the regulars on the show.  She watches, and I sit next to her, asking, on a week-to-week basis, who each hottie is (while playing poker, to keep from totally losing my mind out of boredom).  FWIW, my favorite hottie this season is the soccer player, but I also love to watch the shapely professional dancers.

Regardless, we were able to get back-stage passes from the event organizer, who happens to be a good friend of ours, and my wife was able to take a few pictures with the dancers.  Pictures below:

Ballroom dancer John Roberts, my wife and ballroom dancer Edyta Śliwińska
John actually seems to be a pretty cool guy; an every-man.  He's a down to earth, good, hard-working guy.  It's a shame he's not on the show anymore, but he's married to one of my favorite professional dancers, Anna Trebunskaya.  Edyta looks just as good in person as on TV.  Amazing legs!
My wife and Wheelchair Dancing Champion Nick "The Beast" Scott
Me, Academy Award Winner Marlee Matlin, and my wife
"HOT" Gilles Marini & my wife
I'm a little uncomfortable with this guy.  Girls just swoon over him, and deservedly so.  I though my wife was getting a little weak in the knees, but I can take him any day!  After all, I'll be he doesn't know how to play poker!
See?  Gilles has NOTHING on me!

Monday, October 24, 2011

What I've been up to lately - Bodog, MBA's (Legality of online poker) and life

Long time, no post!  This blog used to be primarily about hand histories, though with US poker going dark, I've been playing less frequently, and far less volume.  It used to be where I'd get into 1-2 sticky situations per night, but now, actions seem far more clear, and with the reduced volume, I'm able to focus on each individual decision.  Poker seems to be a continual treadmill; up & down, up & down...  Move up when the roll gets sizable to support the next buy-in level, and then cash out at the end of the month.

Bodog

I currently 4-table on Bodog, keeping my bankroll to a minimum (8-12 buy-ins @ 25NL), which is a $$$ amount I am comfortable with losing, should the DOJ decide to seize Bodog's assets.  In reality, it is not a truly cost effective use of my time.  I should be playing 50 or 100NL, but I simply don't want to keep an amount online that would be sufficient for those stakes.  Alas, I have to settle for the 25NL donks, which can be both tremendously profitable, and terribly frustrating.  Overall, though, it's profitable.

MBA

I have completed my first two classes of my MBA program: Financial Accounting & Business Communications.  Accounting was ridiculously difficult; just like engineering, there are a set of rules for proper accounting standards.  However, the rules seem counter-intuitive to natural math.  For example, the notion of credits and debits to T-accounts (basically a means of tracking transactions between accounts) are different for assets and liabilities.  There is no notion of +/-; a liability is net positive, just the same as an asset, though a credit to an asset account means the opposite of a credit to a debit account.  Very confusing, and seemingly anti-engineering.  Whatever.

As difficult as accounting was (we went through, chapter-to-chapter, 700 pages, from the aforementioned T-accounts to derivatives and bonds (i.e. present value of future cash flow, etc.) in about 8 weeks), Business Communications was the inverse.  It was ridiculously soft; 3 papers: 2 3-page, and 1 10-pager, a group presentation, and an individual presentation to discuss the 10-page paper's findings.  My topic of choice: Legalization of online poker.  I am going to post my papers and presentation if anyone is interested.

Click this link for the papers.

I started my post-graduate college career with 2 A's.  That's like pulling off a successful check-raise against a nit!  Booyah!  I was also confronted with my first return on the MBA investment: one of my classmates has essentially offered me a job.  Pretty sure I'm not going to take it, but it's very cool nevertheless.

Life

I've been crazy busy with work & school, that life seems to be flying by.  I've had little time to myself, and that which I've had, I've been spending with my family.  It's fun watching my 3 children grow into individuals.  My 8 year old is really getting into reading and becoming quite the bookworm.  He's into Pokemon as well, which annoys me, but it gives him some exposure to games and strategy.  My 6 year old is learning to read, and seems to take to it a bit slower than the 8 year old was at her age, but it's coming along.  She is really into gymnastics and music; perhaps she'll be the artist in the family.  Finally, my 4 year old is learning her letters and numbers.  I think she's going to be very smart.  She does not know how to shut her mouth, ever.  The ongoing joke is how do we know when she's awake?  She's moving her mouth.

I went to Hollywood Casino at Charles Town, WV, last Thursday.  I think I'm done with that place.  It is stupid, but I run absolutely terribly there.  Simply unbelievably bad.  I win *EVERYWHERE* else I play, but I cannot seem to win in my home casino.  It's a shame, too, because CTown is only 45 minutes away.  I'm just frustrated that I sit at a table full of donkeys and cannot hit a single hand - for what was 4 hours on Thursday, added to the prior 10-12 hours worth of sessions that I put in.  Collectively, in those 16+ hours, I've seen KK twice and AK twice.  I may have seen QQ once.  To make matters even worse, I'm folding the trash hands and even decent hands, and none of those hands ever hit regardless.  It's not like I'm hitting hands that I folded, I'm simply not hitting ANYTHING.  It's amazing, too, because when I was out in California a few weeks ago, in the few hours I was there, I hit my hands and got paid MAJORLY.  Why can't I run half-way normal at home, like I do ANYWHERE else?!?!?!?  WTF?

That's all.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Poker is tough when you hit the nuts - Trip report to Chumash Casino / Santa Ynez, CA

Sorry for the lack of posts; nothing interesting has happened lately.  I've been continually cashing out of my Bodog account, my only current online bankroll.  I was able to achieve $650 in bonuses this past month (plus winnings), and worked my bankroll beyond my comfort level given the state of online poker in this country.  Therefore, I dropped my roll back down to the $200-300 level, and I'm back to playing 25NL :-(.  Regardless, it's still a profit center, though I wish legislators would weigh in and pave the way for legalized online poker.  It's still tilt-inducing to read about the Full Tilt debacle; it would be very very very nice to get my money from them.


Back to the title: Trip report to Chumash Casino - I'm in San Luis Obispo this week on business travel.  After work, it's just an empty hotel room & me - and once I'm done with my studies, I have the opportunity to play some poker... this being California and all.  Unfortunately, the San Luis Obispo area has 2 very small poker rooms, but Chumash is an hour's drive south, which is where I headed when I came in last night.

The Chumash Casino is somewhat bland; nothing exciting to report - fairly typical of an Indian Native American casino.  They had a small-"ish" table game area, surrounded by a wealth of slot machines.  The poker room, located at the far far back end of the casino (and upstairs), is not likely to be visited by your casual slot machine / blackjack gamblers / players.  On the Sunday night that I was there, they had 3 1/2 $60 min/max buy-in  (typical for California) tables coupled with a 2/5 $100-500 buy-in game and a smattering of 2/4 limit games.  In all, roughly 10 tables were running, but I was able to find a seat within 15 minutes (playing 3 hands of 2/4 limit before getting called for 1/2NL).

Once seated, I realized that my table would be a very easy / pushover table.  The typical raise would be a  min raise to $4 or even $5.  The typical host of limpers / overcallers would oblige the raise and flat their any two cards.  It was fairly easy to 3bet to $30-40 or even $20 and drag a decent pot without risk (at worst, I'm putting a max $60 buy in at risk to start anyway, and my table was totally weak/tight).  Over time, (I'm not pushing any other players off a pair of Aces or mostly any pair for that matter, I built up to $85 and the table broke.  I was moved to a table with larger-than-starting stacks - averaging around $100 stacks.  I was able to build a TAG image, raising the hands I entered and cbetting to take them down on the flop most of the time.  Finally, I raised $12 AQs on the BTN into 3 limpers who called my raise.  A beautiful AQQ flop (2 diamonds) comes and it checks to me.  I debated cbetting, but they had seen be check / flop and cbet turn a missed AK in a prior hand, so I wanted to follow a similar pattern.  Therefore, I opted to check the flop and see a turn 8.  The MP limp / caller leads for $20 into the ~$36 pot and I opt to flat (he had around $10 behind).  The UTG check/raises to $100, which has me roughly covered.  The MP folds (no idea why he folds here for $10 more) and instacall & double up - UTG complaining the whole way about a HUGE cooler where he has a Q.

That hand sets me up with ~$230 effective stacks for the next hand; it's folded around to me on the CO and I raise my A2s to $8.  The one other big stack at the table, $~230, and the most competent player of the group, 3bets me to $18.  Normally, I'm folding to this bet - clearly, though, given the stack sizes, and the fact that he knows that I know how to play, I flat, in position.  I'm getting nice immediate odds, it's not likely that he holds a dominated Ace (I'll find out immediately if an Ace flops regardless), and if I hit a flop, it's likely he'll think that I'm playing him.  Note that I said competent, not good...  Of course, the flop comes down 7 2 2, rainbow, giving me trips.  He cbets $25 into me and I feign pain and call.  The turn is a 5 and he once again leads with $40.  Putting on my best act, and PRAYING that he has a very strong range given the 2 streets, I opt to put him all in for the remaining $~150, which clearly caught him off guard.  It felt like eons before he finally made a call - I knew he would NEVER put me on trip deuces, but I was ultimately concerned that he would think I had either a set or JJ+.  Putting myself in his shoes, nothing really made sense for him in the hand; the only hands I would be able to put myself on in this spot are sets and <=JJ, given the PF action.  Granted, there are plenty of bluffs in my range, but why would I shove a marginal overpair in this spot given that he's repped such a strong range.  With most hands 88-even JJ, I would be calling each street.  I could be spazzing, of course, but he was correct in narrowing my range (he even said it while he talked out his reasoning before the call) to 88-99.  In the end, I have to believe that if I'm in his shoes, I'm folding, putting my opponent on a stronger-than-overpair range more likely than a bluff, but like I said, he's competent, not good.  He shows TT for the overplayed overpair (I know that I'm not basically min 3betting PF, OOP, against the other big stack at the table who happens to be the other competent player (not good either :-) ), and cbetting 2 streets only to call a shove with a weak-"ish" overpair).  Regardless, I scoop a $450 pot FTW, and go home 30 minutes later with a heavier pocket than when I began the night.

Friday, August 26, 2011

What would you do? #239 - Easy fold?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $24.65
UTG: $38.05 - 38 / 8 @ 135 hands
UTG+1: $24.65 - 10 hands, 0/0 with no trickery
MP1: $33.86
MP2: $30.95
Hero (CO): $55.25
BTN: $45.90
SB: $33.92 - 36/22 @ 142 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Td Th
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.25, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2, SB calls $2, UTG calls $2
Pretty certain SB will call if I call, and SB will pay off at a minimum if I hit.

Flop: ($14.25) 9d 3c 2c (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $21.15 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results


Even though he's a new player to me, I feel as though I'm CRUSHED a HUGE portion of the time in this limp / raise spot (mostly AA, rarely KK).  I think a smaller percentage of the time, he's showing up with AK, but I don't see a totally new player to the table terribly overplaying AK like this.  As expected, he shows up with AA.
Hero folds, SB raises to $30.42 all in, UTG folds

Turn: ($56.55) 2s (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($56.55) 8c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $56.55
UTG+1 shows Ac As
SB shows Qs 9s
UTG+1 wins $53.75
(Rake: $2.80)

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Earthquake in DC area

First to report it!  I just experienced my first significant earthquake, here in Dulles, VA.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Thinking about poker again...

I think it's easy and normal to fall into the trap of automatic poker.  You get used to a certain process or style of play in your head, and you stick to that plan.  If you're not actively seeking new and alternate approaches to hands, it becomes very easy to fall into the trap of reaching a plateau for your skills, or even worse, watching your skills decline.  I have been in this situation for the past 3 months; I am unwilling to deposit fresh funds into a new online account, and am patiently waiting [hoping?] that I get my money back from Full Tilt.

My poker play has been in a state of limbo, even though I still 4 table at Bodog 25 or 50NL.  I have adjusted to the monkeys at the Bodog tables; they are generally at either end of the extremes - i.e. the regs are generally 12/8, and the tourists are a healthy 45/2 or 25/2, with a sprinkling of 90/2 's or 90/60 's.  There are very few who are in between, like myself; on Bodog, I run around a 30/20 (very LAGgy for Full Tilt, but given that most players don't have a HUD at Bodog, I likely fit into the mid-tight very aggro camp).  Regardless, I play 25 or 50NL because of bankroll constraints; I want to keep no more than $400 on Bodog at any given time, with the assumption that if the Feds rush in and seize my funds, I have a stop loss of no more than $400.

To come full circle with the first paragraph, I realize that I have settled into a routine.  My CardRunners subscription expired with my Full Tilt account "closure," and I haven't been reading strategy articles other than what is in my subscription to Card Player magazine (which is close to running out as well).  Needless to say, I have not been expanding on my game, and it is only a matter of time until the Bodog fish die out and the regs get smarter.  Therefore, I have started watching old, archived videos that I have found here and there.

Yesterday, I watched the first 2 segments of Phil Galfond's Poker Philosophy, from Bluefire Poker.  I was immediately able to implement the key points that he expressed - scare cards and checking the river when you put your opponent on a bluff.

The scare cards point explains that a aggro LAG will continue to barrel and try to push you off of your hand.  He will see over cards to the board as scare cards, and continue to pot bet until you end up folding.  I could instantly relate; my strategy is based upon the opponent that he was talking about - I barrel those supposed "scare cards," and usually force my opponent into folding the best hand - a strategy that works out very well for me (I wind up winning a TON of money without show down, but my W$SD is typically at or below $0).

I don't know why I hadn't considered the opposite effect, though.  I have an incredibly tough time playing against those 40/30 honey badgers who "just don't give a shit," and keep barrelling pot sized bets at the board regardless their holdings.  In effect, they are my mirror image.  In response, I need to stop check raising my strong hands to scary boards and watch them wriggle free (fold), but rather allow them to continue to hang themselves.  I need to start check / raising my semi-bluffs with modest frequency.  I also need to check / call my mid-strength hands more often, instead of weakly folding to the stack-threatening second barrel.

The other point, checking the river to induce, is a GREAT strategy, that is easy to implement.  Phil points out that this is a leak that is very difficult to detect; since no money is "lost," the play can easily be overlooked.  Instead of bet bet bet with showdown-worthy hands against a drawing opponent, implementing a bet bet check strategy works more effectively.  Numerous times last night, I took the line of bet bet check, and had my drawing opponents bet river money that I would never have gotten had I led the river myself.  Profitville, booyah!  Having those clear reads on opponents, I was able to take my JTs on a T 9 3 6 2 board and turn it into river profit when I lead the flop, bet the turn and check / call the river.  Nothing new as far as the reverse; I have long since implemented the strategy of forcing a fold with a river bet when I too hold air or a draw and know I have no showdown value; a simple bet of 8BB into a 24BB pot will get a ton of folds against my drawing opponent with my KQ / QJ / etc. on the above board.  Now, I'm making money on the reverse strategy - checking my showdown-worthy hands to my mirror image who was on a draw in the first place.

Anyway, it feels good to write about poker strategy again.  Unfortunately, there haven't been too many instances of hands which I've felt worthy of posting.  I'm not playing all that often, so the interesting hand histories have been few & far between; most decisions come down to polarizing ranges - total LAGtards repping sets, etc., which are overwhelmingly easy decisions (it's funny to watch the reactions / comments when I'm showing down a pair of 3's against dude's randoms and the other players are wow'ed).  I'm hoping I'll have the time to watch more of Phil's Poker Philosophy and write another entry soon.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Trip Report: Hustler Casino

As I mentioned in my last post, I finally broke through with a decent win at the Commerce Casino.  I followed up my win at Commerce with a nice session at Hustler.  The Hustler Casino is quite a bit closer to my hotel, so I decided to head out for dinner prior to my session.  Since I was in the mood for sushi, the front desk recommended a small hole-in-the-wall restaurant, Sakura Japanese Restaurant and Sushi Bar in Los Angeles.  I highly recommend it; prices were incredibly cheap and the food was very good - particularly for the price.

Entrance to the Hustler Casino
Stomach filled, I headed out to Larry Flynt's casino.  The casino is somewhat small, with an understated entrance.  I was figuring there would be tons of neon, bright lights and half-dressed women roaming the property, akin to what I'd imagine the Playboy mansion is like.  At any rate, I was not there to check out women nor party it up; I was there to make some money.

The poker floor at Hustler Casino
Consistent with the exterior, the interior was pleasant and clean, but smaller than the cavern I had seen at the Commerce on the prior night.  The buy in structures for Hustler are different, as well.  They offered a 1 / 3 game (I think; perhaps it was 1 / 2) with a lower buy in, but 2 2 / 5 games - one with a $100 - $300 buy in and one with a $300 - $500 buy in.  I opted for the 2 / 5 $300 buy in game, starting with $200.

Having had one prior experience with a 2 / 5 game, the players at this game seemed unlike prior players I have encountered.  The action was typically loose passive - players limp / calling large raises to check / fold cbets.  I got nice value from JTs to a pocket second pair on a Jack high board, and stacked a player with a turn check / raise where I flopped a set to another player's AA (which totally tilted him, FTW!), but other than that, I had very few decisions.  The one "threat" at the table wound up quitting, leaving me as the table aggro.

A few observations: In this game, I would constantly raise my button to the limpers - a price of $40 would force the limpers to fold, as they were not keen on playing a large pot out of position.  In this game, players were able to fold their hands a lot easier than the 2 / 3 or 1 / 2 games I have played.  Finally, I walked away with a decent profit of $475 for the 3-4 hours of play - not a bad profit for a Wednesday night.

The coolest thing about the night, though, was a fellow player who was involved with movie production - a contractor who started a company applying EVMS to movie schedules / costs.  This is in my bailiwick as an engineer, so my interest was definitely piqued.  We exchanged emails and he'll hopefully contact with future opportunity.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Trip Report: Commerce Casino in Los Angeles

The Hustler Casino and Crowne Plaza Hotel
 Continuing on my second night of my trip, I decided to make the 20 minute drive to the largest poker room in the world, the Commerce Casino.  Let me say that it is HUGE!  According to their website, there are more than 200 tables.  I was surprised to see that for a Tuesday night, it was jammed; I estimated a good 70% of the tables were in action.
Entrance to the casino; seems legit, no?
The configuration of the casino was a section of table games sandwiched between 2 huge poker floors catering to cash games.  Apparently, there is an additional poker floor on another level, open for the tournaments regularly hosted.  This place was clearly huge, but given the setup, it did not have an overwhelming feel like I'd imagine the basement of the Rio feels like during the WSOP.
Inside the NL poker room
Upon finding a table (a quick process; the floor manager found me a seat almost instantly), I immediately noticed that the chairs are TERRIBLE.  In addition to the padding being worn down, the chairs were of the 4-legged variety, i.e. no swivel, no wheels, no height adjustment.  To compensate for the harsh padding, there are wedge pads readily available at random empty seats which you can grab to "soften" the crunch to your rear end.  In my case, though, for the 3-4 hours I would be playing, I thought the seats were bearable.  However, given a longer session, frequent breaks are absolutely necessary because you could likely develop bed sores (I joke), but you really would need to get up and stretch your legs.
The limit / high limit poker floor
Commerce has a buy in and blind structure similar to Hollywood Park.  Its rules are consistent with Hollywood as well (missed weird button / SB rules, betting line, etc.).  This time, I immediately sat down to a 2 / 3 blind structure with a $100 buy in, not wasting time at the 1 / 2 $40 tables.  It was a good choice; the first table was filled with mostly passive limpers, coupled with 2 aggressive types.  I sat in the 1 seat, and took note that the 9 seat (it seems that all poker tables in CA are 9-person tables) was playing every single hand, calling far too lightly, and playing hands to the river.  I would sit and wait for a playable hand prior to getting involved with Mr. Station.

It wasn't too long  until I picked up 99 on the button.  Mr. Station, in the CO opted to limp, as has been his habit.  I also had one other limper, an aggro who was a limp weak- / raise strong- hands type person.  I immediately popped the $3 blind to $16 ($115 effective stacks) and lost the aggro.  Mr. Station called and we saw a HU flop of J 7 3 rainbow, about as dry as it gets.  Mr. Station checked to me and I led for ~$25 into ~$40, to which he called.  The turn was an x (can't remember, but it wasn't an overcard to the board and it 2 flushed the board), and he checked again.  I continued to bet ~$40 and he called once again.  The river paired the board (3, it must have been), and he decided to shove all in for his remaining ~$40...  No decision snap call for me, and I scooped a decent pot for a second pair holding.  He showed K7o FTW!  From that point, I was off and did not slow down.

I would go on to build a $186 profit at the table and decided to move when Mr. Station quit and the table got far tighter / aggro.  I switched briefly to a table where I lost ~$10 of my new $100 stack (remember you can't sit down with more than a buy in at a new table in which the player requests a table change) in an orbit before reading the table for similar aggro.  I saw the table behind me was chatty, noisy and cheering for hands to hold, etc.  I knew that this kind of table is the table I'm after; players who care what happens after the money goes all in.  I spotted an empty seat and immediately switched.

At my new "home card game" table, I immediately took an aggressive line, 3-betting  and raising all in with my $100 stack.  I 3bet with AQ against an EP raiser who I read for weak.  He called / folded to my cbet shove.  I raised QQ and collected a family pot of limped blinds.  I was all in on the flop with J9s against a flop of T 8 x ss - and doubled up my initial ~$100 with the flush on the turn (against T4o - overvalue hands much?).  Finally, I was confronted with the only real decision of the night:

Given my reputation as the table bully / table captain / table aggromaniac (and I'm not usually in that spot in live poker), I raised to $25 with AQs in the CO against a table full of limpers.  By this time, I had an effective stack of ~$250 and started to tighten up, as I'm not entirely loving the thought of shoving a ~100BB stack pre-flop without a truly decent starting hand.  The SB flatted and the BB shoved all-in - a stack of nearly $300 (he has me covered).  The UTG instantly calls with his shortish ~$60 and I'm faced with a decision for my stack.  As you may have gathered, I'm not loving the thought of, at best, flipping for my stack, so after a fair amount of time, I folded.  In addition, I was not loving the tightish flat from the SB, his first such move in my series of raises.  Anyway, it turns out that the SB snaps and I would have been up against 77 (SB), JJ (BB) and T9s (UTG).  K QQ flop and blanks on the turn and river - the BB scoops a $580 pot and he's feeling pretty smug.  I am silently cursing myself for not having the balls to call of the raise - particularly once I get more hands on the SB who turns out to be an ABC player.

Anyway, I would end the night $425 to the positive.  The Commerce Casino trip marks my first decent live session win in about 2 months.

Up next on the trip report is Larry Flynt's Hustler Casino.  Stay tuned :-).

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Trip report: Hollywood Park at Los Angeles, CA

View from the Hollywood Park parking lot
Whenever I travel, be it for pleasure or business, I make a concerted attempt to experience the local casinos of the area.  This week, I find myself in Los Angeles, California, home of the Lakers, smog and movie stars, among other things.  L.A. also happens to be poker-friendly area, with more than 5 large card rooms in the immediate vicinity.  In planning for this trip, I decided that I would try to visit at least 3 casinos in the 4 nights I would spend out west.

I flew into LAX on Monday, and after an easy flight and quick turnaround on car rental / hotel check-in, I found myself with a free afternoon.  Being that I have had a craving for In-n-Out since my last visit out west 2 years ago, I proceeded to the nearest fast food burger joint for a late lunch.  (If you haven’t had a chance to try In-n-Out, I highly recommend it; fresh ingredients at McDonald’s prices, with FAR FAR FAR better taste and no indigestion.)  Stomach laden with a fresh cheeseburger, French fries, and a diet Coke, I was ready to scratch my live poker itch.  After a quick google map search of casinos nearest to the area, I settled on the closest, Hollywood Park.  I jumped in my rental and headed out.  (BTW, props to Ford for their Ford Focus.  I really like this car.)

I figured that I would be going to a “local” casino, akin to a tribe casino.  As such, Hollywood Park was exactly what I expected.  Entrance to the casino was typical: table games to the left, poker tables to the right, horse track straight ahead.  Once inside, though, I found the casino rules to be totally different than what I had been accustomed to.   There are a few major differences to LA area (and not sure whether it applies to the whole of California) casinos, as well as minor tweaks to the “normal” poker room rules.  I will detail them below in two sections, -EV games and poker.

All of the below description is merely my interpretation and not in any way verified as factual.  It is what I interpreted / understood from my short time in the casino.

  • -EV games

The rules in LA (or California, not sure whether it’s state or local) are that “gambling” is illegal, but games of skill are okay.  Therefore, the house is a conduit for skill games; it charges a “commission” for playing the role as dealer.  Basically, the house / dealer is paid $3 for every hand of blackjack, 3 card poker, etc.  A separate entity, “the bank,” an independent contractor to the casino, provides a bankroll from which to pay the players and collect the players’ losses.  This “bank” entity is a physically separate person, apart from the dealer, who has opted to essentially play the role of the house.

All players have a chance to act as the bank, paying $3 per hand dealt in exchange for the privilege.  Surprisingly, I observed 100% of players playing the role as player, never as bank.  I’d imagine playing the role of bank is akin to playing the craps line; looked upon as unfavorable.  However, I couldn’t help but think that playing as the bank clearly makes the most sense; the more bets / money in action, the lower the $3 commission effectively becomes.  It surely was an interesting twist on table games.

One additional note is that blackjack in Hollywood Park pays 6:5 instead of the normal 3:2.  Again, in my mind, this clearly favors playing to role of bank.
  • +EV games (ala poker)

Hollywood Park poker room; pretty typical (sorry for the blurriness)

My bread & butter…  Poker in LA is simply… well… different.  The first thing I noticed when I sat down at my typical 1 / 2 NL game was the buy in was $40; no more, no less.  20BB?  Really?  Oh yeah; bonus if you fall below $20, you can rebuy to $60.  I don’t get why the 1 / 2 tables have a $40 buy-in cap; perhaps one of the readers can enlighten me with the logic behind it.

With the third hand, I found myself nearly all in pre-flop as I raised to $18 with AQs in the CO after everyone (10 person tables at Hollywood Park) limped to me.  Literally.  Everyone limped.  I would be happy here taking the blinds and moving onto the next hand.  However, a woman who fancied herself a real pro, decided to flat in the SB.  The table folded around and we saw a heads-up flop of 7 x x.  She auto-shipped her remaining $16-18 (guess she’s never heard of checking to the raiser) which I obviously snapped, and was shown the bad luck of her holding A7ss.   However, runner runner Queens to the rescue bailed me out and I now had a workable >50BB stack.  Moreover, she was PISSED, and started SPEWING chips.  She was appalled that I make a call for my stack with nothing but two overcards.  Granted, it did suck for her, but gimme a break; 10BB out of 20BB effective stacks with Ax sooted?  Get over it.  You may as well have shoved pre flop.

Approximately 20 minutes later, I raised from EP with AQs again ($10) and was 3bet  to $20 by the tilted reg middle aged white guy who kept complaining to whomever was listening that I was running my mouth and jabbering way too much.  Seeing that he was just DYING to make a move on me, I decided to 4bet shove for his $40 effective stack.  He hemmed and hawed but made the call.  I was shown A3ss.  Nice hand, sir.  Queen in the window, and I’m almost to a full buy in (100BB).

After spending 45-60 minutes getting my bearings and the lay of the land, I grew bored of 1 / 2 NL $40 which played like limit poker (players would typically raise the blinds to $4) and decided to move up to the 2 / 3 $100 buy in game.  Big time, I know…  Since I moved tables, I could not bring my +$100 stack to the table; I had to pull cash off the table to get to the $100 no more no less buy in rule.  I would wind up walking away up $50 for the night without any major hands or significant decisions.  Overall, though, the 1 / 2 game was EXTREMELY soft, and the 2 / 3 game had soft spots but was more difficult.

A few observations for Hollywood Park: every pot pulls $1 for the bad beat jackpot, regardless of flop or not.  The rake is $5 flat (+$1 for the jackpot), assuming the pot reaches a threshold $$ amount, which I could not determine.  The betting line never seems to be enforced; in fact, I queried a dealer about how a bet is constituted and was told that forward motion constitutes a bet.  Therefore, there is no need to push your bet past the betting line.  Angle shooter, anyone?  Finally, there is neither a dead button nor single blind.  If a player leaves when he / she was supposed to be the button, the would-be big blind posts a big blind (as the new SB), and the would-be UTG position posts a big blind (as the new BB).  The would-be SB posts the SB but receives the button.  What a weird rule.  If a player leaves when he / she was supposed to be the SB, I can’t exactly remember what happens, but it’s just as screwy.

Up next on the trip report: Commerce Casino.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Friday, July 1, 2011

L.A. / El Segundo area poker rooms?

I have a business trip scheduled for July 11 - 15 to El Segundo / Los Angeles.  I'll be staying approx. 5 minutes from LAX.  Does anyone have any suggestions for poker rooms in the area?  Best I could find, there are two casinos immediately in the vicinity:

Larry Flynt's Hustler Club
Hollywood Park

If I drive a bit further away, I can go to the world's largest poker room, the Commerce Casino.  Nearby to Commerce, I can opt to go to the Bicycle Club.

In prior business trips, I think I've been to the Bicycle Club, but don't recall it being particularly memorable.  Obviously, the Bike & Commerce are world famous and have quite a bit of history - places where Johnny F'ing Chan and Barry Greenstein, among others, cut their teeth.  However, is the walk down memory lane / homage worth it?  I'd imagine that the time difference between the two closest casinos and the two better casinos is around 30 minutes in L.A. traffic.

Opinions?

P.S.  Of course, whatever the decision, you'll get a trip report.  Hopefully, I'll have the time to visit each of the rooms at least once, so I'll come back laden with pictures and recaps of the players.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Apropo topic of Freakonomics: Predicting the future

Interesting entry today; not saying it's directly related to any fellow bloggers, but an excerpt from Levitt's opinion:

"...the person who makes that prediction has a strong incentive to remind everyone that they made that crazy prediction which came true.
...if you’re wrong, there’s no person on the other side of the transaction who draws any real benefit from embarrassing you by bring up the bad prediction over and over."

Link if you're interested...

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Bad beat jackpot

First time I've ever been involved in a "Bad Beat" hand.  Too bad for the loser that he didn't know he qualified for a jackpot:

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $20.40
UTG+2: $62.65
MP1: $22.40
Hero (MP2): $31.70
CO: $24.25
BTN: $21.79
SB: $39.27
BB: $57.85
UTG: $22.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with Kh Kd
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.85, 4 folds
This is a reasonably tight player (11/9 @ 654 hands).  He's overly aggressive and likely to overplay most hands.
 
Flop: ($2.05) Jc Kc 3d (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05
When the K flops, I'm a little scared that he won't bet the turn.  However, he just continues right through like the second K wasn't even there...

Turn: ($6.15) Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.53, Hero calls $2.53
Since I have history with him, I know he's likely to fold to a raise so I continue to call in position.

River: ($11.21) Ah (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.06, Hero raises to $26.27 all in, UTG+1 calls $6.91 all in
And he binks his 2 outter.

Final Pot: $41.15
UTG+1 shows As Ac
Hero shows Kh Kd
Hero wins $39.10
(Rake: $2.05)

Thursday, June 23, 2011

What would you do? #239 - A coin flip?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1352744
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $27.67
BTN: $12.43
SB: $42.30 - 42/11 / 0%3bet / 2.1AF / 86% cbet / 50% fold to cbet @ 86 hands
BB: $29.74
Hero (UTG): $68.91
UTG+1: $27.04
MP1: $38.58
MP2: $25.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Jc Ac
Hero raises to $0.75, 5 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Ok.  So villain is a fish.  He sees a lot of hands, and to date, has won money by betting big (bluffing) or people not believing him when he hits his improbable hands.  He is most aggressive on the river.  He has shown down all manner of hands including AK, etc.  He loves to flat his monsters when facing a PFR.

Flop: ($1.75) Ad Jh Kc (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.00, SB raises to $12.50, Hero folds
I think my mistake in this hand is raising his lead.  There are 5 hands that beat me here: AA (unlikely), AK (more likely), JJ (unlikely), KK (possibly, but not likely), and QT (very likely).  On the flip side, there are 2 hands that I am crushing: AQ, KJ.  He can also be bluffing, but I can't see him bluffing HUGE like this, on the flop.


It seems to me that it comes down to the above situation, and given that we're so deep, I fold the hand with minimal loss.

Weak, I know, but the action and pushback that I was getting on this hand seemed like Aces up was beat.


As an aside, I would go on to later take his entire $60-70 stack from his all-too-frequent river bluffs from my turn checks.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Still here...

I'm a little rusty on the poker front; I've been studying for the GMAT and putting a most of my time into the college application process (essays, etc.).  I finally took the GMAT this past Saturday (scored greater than the necessary minimum for entrance to JHU - FTW!) and was able to put a bit of time into online poker games.  I guess I shook the rust off fairly quickly, because I put a death grip on the Bodog 25NL ballers.  I pushed my bankroll up 8+ buy ins in 2 somewhat short sessions.

The upswing is a huge relief to me because in limited time (approx. 4400 hands over the past month), I've been on such a terrible downswing.  I hope that this recent upswing will translate to live poker, as I'd like to get in a few live sessions at a B&M poker room.  We'll see; I'd like to head over to Charles Town with Heffmike, if we can both agree on a date / time.  Anyway, brag for the day below:


Of course, after posting entry, I fully expect to run like poop again.  See the "Rules of Run Good."

Monday, June 20, 2011

Online Poker Takes a Few Steps Closer to Reality

An update on the latest battles for online poker.

From The Motley Fool:


The debate over online gaming, poker in particular, has been raging since the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act was passed in 2006. But there have been a few recent developments that take online poker a few steps closer to reality. Upcoming budget debates, as Republicans have resisted tax increases, may be just the opening a few key members of Congress need...

Click for the rest of the article.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

What would you do? #238 - Is this reasonable?

Sorry - it was a Bodog freeroll / no HH, but a re-creation below:

Blinds 30/60

Relevant stacks:

Me (BTN) 2090 chips
Aggrodonk (UTG+2) 2301.25 chips

UTG+2 raises to 210.  I 3bet the BTN to 750.  He flats.

Flop is 5d2d3c.  I plan to shove all flops on a 3bet 1590 pot.  I have 1340 remaining.

He calls with 7d6d.  The turn & river are the 9 & 5 of hearts, so I scoop.

Who is the donkey?  Should I be shoving all flops or should this be checked down?

I honestly don't feel as though I did anything wrong, but it feels like an awkward shove.  FWIW, when I shoved, I had 40% equity.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Two well-played hands last night

I've been playing around with checking the TP flop and finding that I get a lot of value on later streets because the villain can't put me on a hand.  Risky, yes, but I can certainly lay down a hand (as proven time & time again on this blog - whether right or wrong...).

27/18 @ 11 hands:
Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $19.50
MP: $17.40
CO: $15.15
BTN: $28.55
SB: $22.47
Hero (BB): $48.37
UTG: $24.51

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Jc Kh
2 folds, MP calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) 3h Jd 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.50) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3.50, MP calls $2

River: ($8.50) 6s (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, MP calls $4

Final Pot: $16.50
Hero shows Jc Kh
Hero wins $15.70
(Rake: $0.80)

----
This hand was somewhat surprising, but I think my image gets the best of him.  He knows that I'm a LAG and capable of c/r'ing the turn with equity draws.  He also knows I'm capable of shoving the river with busted draws.  Clearly, the Q does not make any draws.

22/8/4.8%3bet / 2.5AF / 30+% cbet on each street @ 1.4k hands
Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $31.35
MP2: $27.66
CO: $14.39
BTN: $51.79
SB: $10.92
BB: $30.24
UTG: $41.17
UTG+1: $24.50
UTG+2: $15.20

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Qh Kd
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) 2h Kh 7d (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $2.25, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.60) 3s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero raises to $11.00, BTN calls $6.50
I plan to shove all rivers.

River: ($30.60) Qs (2 players)
Hero bets $16.85 all in, BTN calls $16.85

Final Pot: $64.30
Hero shows Qh Kd
BTN shows Td Tc
Hero wins $61.30
(Rake: $3.00)

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

What would you do? #237 - Gotta be beat, right?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $26.75 - 9/2/ 7.1%3bet @ 45 hands
BTN: $27.35
SB: $27.90
BB: $22.85
UTG: $20.10
UTG+1: $11.45 - 35/19/ 4.2%3bet / 1.2AF @ 202 hands
Hero (UTG+2): $28.10
MP1: $17.79
MP2: $33.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+2 with Kd Jc
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) 2h Kc 6d (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50

Turn: ($8.60) 5s (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets $8.60, UTG+1 raises to $8.70 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results


In my mind, I think I'm already far behind, given the action.  Given CO's flat on the flop, I can't imagine him floating / calling with any draws.  Given the fact that he's played exceedingly tight (over a small sample, granted), I have to assume I'm behind, especially after his pot-sized turn bet.  The turn check is intended to pot control.  Anyone fault me here?

Hero folds, CO calls $0.10

River: ($26.00) 3h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $26.00
CO shows Th As
UTG+1 shows 9s Ks
UTG+1 wins $24.70
(Rake: $1.30)

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Things I've been doing lately

I wanted to get a few items off of my chest, as the void left by "Black Friday" begins to be filled with other pokery- and non-pokery related things:
  • Business trip to Norway
    I am going to Norway from Saturday to Thursday.  I will be an hour north of Oslo.  I have been Googling constantly, but I can't seem to find a casino / poker room in or around Norway as a whole.  Does anyone know if it's even legal there?
  • Atlantic City
    I am heading up to New Jersey this Thursday.  My wife & I are dropping off the kids with my parents and we're going to make a quick overnight trip in Atlantic City.  She booked a room for my birthday, knowing that I would enjoy both spending time with her and playing poker.  If anyone is going to be in AC over the weekend and wants to meet up, leave a comment.
  • Getting an MBA
    I have decided to go back to college to get a graduate degree.  I will pursue obtaining an MBA.  It all starts with the The Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT), for which I have been diligently studying.  Let me tell you...  this GMAT business is 60% reasonable and 40% deciet.  I don't know how many of you have taken the GMAT, but it is disheartening to find questions in the data sufficiency section like the following:

    Which of the following tells a definitive duration of time for a given event?
    (1) The event started at 11:58AM and ended at 12:02PM.
    (2) The event lasted exactly 4 minutes.

    (A) Statement (1) and only statement (1) is necessary to tell the duration of given event.
    (B) Statement (2) and only statement (2) is necessary to tell the duration of given event.
    (C) Both statements (1) and (2) are necessary to tell the duration of given event.
    (D) Either statements (1) or (2) are adequate to tell the duration of given event.
    (E) Neither statements (1) nor (2) are adequate to tell the duration of given event.

    I have paraphrased the question from memory, but I have included what I believe to be the necessary details.

    Click to see results


    Under "normal English circumstances," (D) would be the correct answer because each statement stands on its own. Both state the event was 4 minutes. However, (B) is the correct GMAT answer because (A) does not specify the date at which the event started or ended.

    I will state that I was originally correct in my answer, but I honestly fail to see how knowing the answer to this question will indicate to a graduate school that I am adequately prepared to attend their school. Give me a break! The above simply indicates that I am good at crafting words like a lawyer (apologies to my lawyer readership, but this simply smacks of legalese).

    Also, what's with the sentence correction section? HOLY COW, I do not know the English language anywhere near as well as I thought I did! Although I agree that the sentence correction section adequately tests the knowledge of a student in written English, I fail to see how being a grammarian makes me a better candidate for business school. I anticipate that I will have to write a few papers - yes - but I highly doubt that the professors will be knowledgeable enough to point out grammatical mistakes such as the example questions I have read. A quick example (which I got wrong):

    Scoliosis, a condition when the spine curves abnormally and throws the body out of line, can cause heart and lung problems as well as physical deformity.
    (A) a condition when the spine curves abnormally and throws the body out of line
    (B) an abnormal curvature of the spine that throws the body out of line
    (C) a condition of the spine curving abnormally and in which the body is thrown out of line
    (D) where the body is thrown out of line by an abnormal curvature of the spine
    (E) a condition of an abnormal curvature of the spine throwing the body out of line

    The correct answer is (B), FWIW.  I'm having issues with the sentence correction because the way they "fix" the sentences aren't necessarily the way I would fix them.

    Finally, studying for the GMAT is time consuming!  I'm putting in 2-3 hours after work, which leaves little time for online poker.

    If you're interested, I am pursing Johns Hopkins University (JHU) for my MBA.
  • Letters of recommendation
    One of the application requirements for admission to JHU is 2 letters of recommendation.  The site does not give any more information than that; "Two letters of recommendation."  I am toying with ideas as to who I should ask.  Choices are as follows (keeping in mind that career-wise, I'm an engineer by trade, but moving in the direction of management of both money and people over the past 4 years):
    • An up-and-comer in the business side of the company; he was formerly a Program Manager, but is now advanced to working business development and capture management for the division.  He is well-respected within the company, and holds an adjunct teaching position at a local university.
      I have worked closely in the past with this person and he knows me well.
    • My supervisor's supervisor, who is responsible for approx. 700+ engineers.  Clearly, he is on the engineering side of the company.  Prior to his current position, he was my immediate supervisor, responsible for perhaps 100 engineers.
      I currently work closely with this individual, and he knows me well.
    • The Director of the division.  He's on the business side, well-known, a retired Colonel or Lt. Colonel in the U.S. Army.  Going to him would be going after what I would consider to be "name-dropping."
      Although he and I know each other, I don't work with him and we don't know each other well.  However, asking him would be easy, as I would present it to him such that writing a letter would strengthen his core business by giving me an advanced education.
    • Vice President of the division.  See arguments for the Director.  Subtract the Army experience.
    • A personal friend who is CEO of a large insurance company.
      Although I have never worked directly with him in a professional environment, I have worked charity events with him through our temple, and he is a close friend of mine who knows me well.
      Using him would also be what I consider to be "name-dropping."
Lots of content here.  Sorry if this bores my regular readership; I just needed a place to get it all out onto virtual paper.

When is the losing hand not a loser?

When it's a winner and you don't realize it!

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $23.65
UTG+2: $25.00
MP1: $23.15
MP2: $4.95
CO: $17.56
BTN: $23.40
SB: $59.11
BB: $24.75
Hero (UTG): $49.92

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 9h Qh
Hero calls $0.25, 5 folds, BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.00) 5h 9d Qs (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $0.75, SB calls $0.75, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.00, BTN calls $2.25, SB folds

Turn: ($7.75) 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $6.00, BTN calls $6

River: ($19.75) Kh (2 players)
Hero bets $15.00, BTN calls $14.15 all in

I was *HOPPING* mad when I saw his hand - and that he had sucked out on a 3 outter on the river.  I couldn't believe that he hit his King kicker to take the pot away from me, when I realized that the pot was being shipped my way.  I had to actually go into the hand history to realize that I had hit my backdoor flush!

Final Pot: $48.05
BTN shows Kd Qc
Hero shows 9h Qh
Hero wins $45.65
(Rake: $2.40)

Monday, May 16, 2011

What would you do? #236 - Finally, a hand!

Been running *TERRIBLY* lately, coupled with the shutdown of Full Tilt / Stars, means I've been somewhat avoiding the virtual felt. I've been working a ton, so I haven't exactly had time to grind, but for the past few nights, I've sat down to pound out a few hands. Bodog has sweetened the pot by having a promotion of up to $30 / week for 25 points / day.

Here's a hand from last Thursday:

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $40.57
UTG: $34.48
UTG+1: $31.65
MP: $6.05
CO: $9.15
BTN: $28.83 - 14/5 @ 7 hands; no other relevant stats
Hero (SB): $27.80

CO posts a big blind ($0.25)

Pre Flop: ($0.60) Hero is SB with 5d 6s
3 folds, CO calls $0, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.00) 9c Qs 7d (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.75, CO folds, BTN calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.25) 8d (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.00, BTN raises to $2.00, Hero calls $2, BB folds

River: ($8.25) 2c (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, BTN raises to $20.25, Hero ???


Click to see results


Hero folds

Somewhat of a "monster" lay down; only one hand beats me here. I just can't see a bluff raise all in, and on a limp pot, should I ever be going broke in this spot? Clearly, he hit something when the 8d hits.

I opt to lead the river because I don't want him checking it back to me by my flatting his turn raise. However, I'm full aware that if he raises, it's purely for value, with a hand that likely has me beat (i.e. JT, T6). Therefore, I fold the third nuts.


Final Pot: $16.25
BTN wins $15.45
(Rake: $0.80)

Monday, May 9, 2011

This & that from the live poker tables...

I've been working a helluvalot lately - involved in the final push for a large proposal - and had 40 hours in by this past Monday.  Therefore, I decided to take the remainder of the week off, attempting to recapture the lost weekend and weekday nights.  Tuesday and Wednesday were spent doing family things; my daughter was off of school and we did errands / father-daughter things, but Thursday and Friday were completely empty of plans.

Looking at the calendar, I was able to work it out with my wife that I could go and play poker in the afternoon on both days.  Not only was it back-to-back live poker days, but it meant significant time at the tables; Thursday amounted to around 6 hours and Friday added up to around 10 hours.  I decided I would play at Charles Town on Thursday because I had a hard stop time that I needed to be home (Charles Town is around 1 hour away), and I would play Delaware Park on Friday (around 2 hours) since I had an open-ended stop time.

Having had this much consistent time at the live tables, I am beginning to feel a lot more comfortable - not only in my reads, but in what I am playing against and how to extract value.  I have assembled a few notes from this past week's experience below (they are in no particular order).

  • I'm surprised that it has taken me this long, but I realized that for the most part, bet sizing has nothing to do with pot size.  Whether the pot is limped PF or raised PF, a bet of ~$20-30 means a mid-strength hand, TPTK or TPGK depending on the player.  The bet size has nothing to do with the pot size, so if there are 4 people in a limped pot, a lead of $20 into a $10 pot is "the norm."  Moreover, in the same pot, if 4 people called a PFR of $12, a $20 bet into $50 is customary.  $50 or more is getting into the territory of strong made hands / bluffs (much rarer though).
  • There are a TON of fish / noobs.  If I can make a hand of top pair or better, I'm going to get paid.  Nothing new there, but I need to remember bet sizing; if I want to get people out of the pot, I should bet $50 or larger.  If I want people calling and trying to "catch up," $20-30 is adequate.
  • On *FAR* more than 10 occasions, I have seen players call and not raise the 1-off nuts (i.e. top boat on a paired board where only quads beat them).  These players flip over their hands, looking for the dealer to declare them winner, or at least sort out what kind of hand they hold.  On the opposite side, I have seen these same noobs / fish call HUGE bets with nothing more than King or Queen high, thinking that their 4 flush is the winner, and having the dealer explain to them that a 5 card hand is necessary to make a flush or straight.
  • There are a TON of players who will call virtually ATC no matter the sizing of the raise pre-flop.  It never ceased to amaze me that a player to my left would call my AKo 3 bet to $40 with J6s (from the SB, no less), only to hit top pair and call my $50 river bet when neither of my cards connected.  SIDE NOTE:  Why the hell can't I hit a hand against these players IN EIGHTEEN HOURS OF PLAY?!?!?!?
  • There are a TON of players who simply don't understand that they aren't getting paid by me if their 4 straight or 4 flush hits.  I don't get it...  they see a 3 flush on the board and hold the Ace of whatever - then lead the river when the 4 flush hits and are surprised that I folded.  Dude, you don't need to show me the Ace - I know!  NH, sir.  You just paid $40 into a $50 pot on the turn to see that club or spade on the river.  You charge me $40 on the river to see a showdown, which I fold.  Good value.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

The Poker Meister #71

It's been awhile since I've hit a J9s hand...  This is a pretty good payoff; I got about half his stack in the middle...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $66.05
SB: $48.00
BB: $27.65
UTG: $55.35
UTG+1: $82.30
UTG+2: $202.00
MP1: $73.60
MP2: $42.60
CO: $89.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 9s Js
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) 6s Kh 3s (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50, BB folds

Turn: ($16.50) 7s (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $10, MP1 calls $10

River: ($36.50) Qd (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $24.50, MP1 requests TIME, MP1 calls $24.50

Final Pot: $85.50
Hero shows 9s Js (a flush, Jack high)
MP1 mucks Kd As
Hero wins $82.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Card cheating with the deal / 2p2 Concept of the Week

If you play live / backrooms or home games, this is worth 10 minutes of time invested. Although not entirely definitive, this should certainly help catch a hanger / cheat from stacking the deck.

It's an interesting video if you have the time.



Courtesy of x_ROSH125_x's blog and twoplustwo.com via blackchilliwing.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

No sooner than I wonder.... Pokerstars responds!

Dear xxx,

In light of recent developments, PokerStars is no longer offering real money play to residents of the United States of America and its territories.

The PokerStars Cashier is now available for you to cash out the funds in your real money account balance. We strongly recommend that you use the bank transfer option; to use it, you will need to have your current banking information at hand.

Please note that due to the expected high volume of cashout requests, we anticipate a delay in processing and delivery of your funds. Rest assured that your funds are safe and we will process your request as soon as possible.

Please contact paymentservices@pokerstars.com if you experience any issues.

Thank you for your patience and understanding.

Regards,


PokerStars Support

When and how? Cashout for P* & FT

About a week and a half later, and I'm still waiting to be able to process my withdrawal request from both Full Tilt & Pokerstars.  I'm not so much concerned about the money, but I am concerned about the optimal way of cashing out.  I tried the withdrawal function on Pokerstars last night and got nowhere.

As far as Pokerstars is concerned, they've already released a cash out FAQ on 2p2 as well as numerous other places, addressing how they will work with tournament tickets & T$; they will be converting them to cash.  I currently have 3 $215 SCOOP tickets (won in the WBCOOP events), as well as a $215 Sunday Millions entry, a $55 SCOOP entry, a Step 1 ($7.50) ticket and Step 2 ($27) ticket.  From my rough estimates, I figure the cumulative of those tickets is worth around $850-900.  Nice!

However, it seems as though Full Tilt has been quiet on the issue of cash outs.  Rumor has it that they will follow Pokerstar's lead, cashing out tickets & T$, but what will happen to the Iron Man medals & Full Tilt Points?  I have been playing on Full Tilt for long enough that I have built up a "significant" amount of points and medals - I've been using the medals to play the daily $27 guarantees prior to the US shutdown, but I still have 1100+ medals, and 160k+ points, with 2 $27 tournament entry tickets remaining in my account.  Should I convert my medals / points to tickets, figuring I'll get better value than a payout of the points directly?  The tournament entry tickets are the best value, and if they give me a pittance for points -> $$$ conversion, perhaps I'd be better off preemptively converting my points / medals -> tickets.

Any thoughts / suggestions?

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

A bit of good news - we'll get our money back!

If there's a silver lining to the cloud called "Death of U.S. online poker," it seems to be the fact that the U.S. government will be enabling Full Tilt & Pokerstars to refund the player-held money back to the rightful owners.

The official government memorandum / release is located here:
Justice Department's Press Release

CNN's summary of the breaking news is located here:
Online poker players to be reunited with cash

While I'm ecstatic about this breaking news, I'm still disappointed by my government's decision to enforce what seems to me to be a senseless law.  Isn't it time that we grasp the new technology called the internet and allow people to enjoy their hobbies within the confines of their home or wherever place of choice?  Come on, Congress!  Get with the program.  Legalize online gaming for money!

Monday, April 18, 2011

Hand charts... A Monte Carlo simulation

Life continues.  I don't plan on a cessation from posting on this blog.  HHs may get thin, content may get thing, but I do plan on keeping this blog active & alive.  Anyway, on with the post for today:

Hoyazo was bemoaning his play with KQ (suited or not), so we've had a bit of back and forth regarding the merits of playing that particular hand from early position.  It was my stance that KQ is a second-tier hand, whereby there is negligible difference between JJ and KQs.  In other words, if you dump KQs in EP, you should consider dumping JJ and other manner of hands.  My basis for that statement is absolute hand strength; KQs shows up among the top 10 strongest hands in terms of total hands strength, i.e. if you take X amount of players, deal them 2 cards each and deal a flop, turn and river, KQs is among the top ten winners (in a 6+ -person game).  Granted, this simulation is not entirely realistic; it does not take into account folds, bluffs, boards, etc., but it gives some ground for which one can derive hands that he should or should not be playing.  It is also worth noting that the simulation does not take into account opposing hands; i.e. in a heads-up battle, even though KQs may be a 63.4% overall, it is certainly dominated by AK, AQ, AA, KK, and QQ.  However, it is either ahead of, dominating, or flipping with all other hands non-Ace hands, and slightly behind any Ax (excluding the above) hands.  Given that status on the hierarchy, I believe that KQ is a playable hand from all positions - particularly KQs - and one should continue to raise KQ.

DISCLAIMER: Obviously, situations change and the above is my overall opinion; if I'm in a very tight game and get called holding KQ, I'm probably questioning whether I'm ahead on most flops, but in a loose game, I'm going to be very comfortable with most flops where I hit a King or Queen.  Moreover, if I'm getting 3bet from a tighter / normal 3 bettor, I'm inclined to fold this hand, as it won't flop big and the standard 3bet range includes many hands that dominate KQ.  Finally, I recognize that this hand generally flops a medium strength hand when it connects; therefore, if I'm meeting a lot of resistance, I'm not putting a TON of faith in this hand.

Finally, I have placed the chart below, for your convenience.  For what it's worth, it is sorted by a 9-player game, though the hand strengths don't move significantly until you sort by 2 players.  I'd imagine that you can copy this hand chart into an excel spreadsheet and manipulate it as you see fit.  In my journey to become a more serious poker player, I used this to define my pre-flop starting hands, before I realize the multitude of other resources available.  Enjoy!

Players 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AA 85.3% 73.4% 63.9% 55.9% 49.2% 43.6% 38.8% 34.7% 31.1%
KK 82.4% 68.9% 58.2% 49.8% 43.0% 37.5% 32.9% 29.2% 26.1%
QQ 79.9% 64.9% 53.5% 44.7% 37.9% 32.5% 28.3% 24.9% 22.2%
AKs 67.0% 50.7% 41.4% 35.4% 31.1% 27.7% 25.0% 22.7% 20.7%
JJ 77.5% 61.2% 49.2% 40.3% 33.6% 28.5% 24.6% 21.6% 19.3%
AQs 66.1% 49.4% 39.9% 33.7% 29.4% 26.0% 23.3% 21.1% 19.3%
KQs 63.4% 47.1% 38.2% 32.5% 28.3% 25.1% 22.5% 20.4% 18.6%
AJs 65.4% 48.2% 38.5% 32.2% 27.8% 24.5% 22.0% 19.9% 18.1%
KJs 62.6% 45.9% 36.8% 31.1% 26.9% 23.8% 21.3% 19.3% 17.6%
TT 75.1% 57.7% 45.2% 36.4% 30.0% 25.3% 21.8% 19.2% 17.2%
AKo 65.4% 48.2% 38.6% 32.4% 27.9% 24.4% 21.6% 19.2% 17.2%
ATs 64.7% 47.1% 37.2% 31.0% 26.7% 23.5% 21.0% 18.9% 17.3%
QJs 60.3% 44.1% 35.6% 30.1% 26.1% 23.0% 20.7% 18.7% 17.1%
KTs 61.9% 44.9% 35.7% 29.9% 25.8% 22.8% 20.4% 18.5% 16.9%
QTs 59.5% 43.1% 34.6% 29.1% 25.2% 22.3% 19.9% 18.1% 16.6%
JTs 57.5% 41.9% 33.8% 28.5% 24.7% 21.9% 19.7% 17.9% 16.5%
AQo 64.5% 46.8% 36.9% 30.4% 25.9% 22.5% 19.7% 17.5% 15.5%
99 72.1% 53.5% 41.1% 32.6% 26.6% 22.4% 19.4% 17.2% 15.6%
A9s 63.0% 44.8% 34.6% 28.4% 24.2% 21.1% 18.8% 16.9% 15.4%
KQo 61.4% 44.4% 35.2% 29.3% 25.1% 21.8% 19.1% 16.9% 15.1%
K9s 60.0% 42.4% 32.9% 27.2% 23.2% 20.3% 18.1% 16.3% 14.8%
A8s 62.1% 43.7% 33.6% 27.4% 23.3% 20.3% 18.0% 16.2% 14.8%
T9s 54.3% 38.9% 31.0% 26.0% 22.5% 19.8% 17.8% 16.2% 14.9%
AJo 63.6% 45.6% 35.4% 28.9% 24.4% 21.0% 18.3% 16.1% 14.3%
A5s 59.9% 41.4% 31.8% 26.0% 22.2% 19.6% 17.5% 15.9% 14.5%
Q9s 57.9% 40.7% 31.9% 26.4% 22.5% 19.7% 17.6% 15.9% 14.5%
J9s 55.8% 39.6% 31.3% 26.1% 22.4% 19.7% 17.6% 15.9% 14.6%
88 69.1% 49.9% 37.5% 29.4% 24.0% 20.3% 17.7% 15.8% 14.4%
A7s 61.1% 42.6% 32.6% 26.5% 22.5% 19.6% 17.4% 15.7% 14.3%
KJo 60.6% 43.1% 33.6% 27.6% 23.5% 20.2% 17.7% 15.6% 13.9%
A4s 58.9% 40.4% 30.9% 25.3% 21.6% 19.0% 17.0% 15.5% 14.2%
A6s 60.0% 41.3% 31.4% 25.6% 21.7% 19.0% 16.9% 15.3% 14.0%
QJo 58.2% 41.4% 32.6% 26.9% 22.9% 19.8% 17.3% 15.3% 13.7%
ATo 62.9% 44.4% 34.1% 27.6% 23.1% 19.8% 17.2% 15.1% 13.4%
A3s 58.0% 39.4% 30.0% 24.6% 21.0% 18.5% 16.6% 15.1% 13.9%
77 66.2% 46.4% 34.4% 26.8% 21.9% 18.6% 16.4% 14.8% 13.7%
K8s 58.5% 40.2% 30.8% 25.1% 21.3% 18.6% 16.5% 14.8% 13.5%
T8s 52.6% 36.9% 29.0% 24.0% 20.6% 18.1% 16.2% 14.8% 13.6%
KTo 59.9% 42.0% 32.5% 26.5% 22.3% 19.2% 16.7% 14.7% 13.1%
A2s 57.0% 38.5% 29.2% 23.9% 20.4% 18.0% 16.1% 14.6% 13.4%
K7s 57.8% 39.4% 30.1% 24.5% 20.8% 18.1% 16.0% 14.5% 13.2%
JTo 55.4% 39.0% 30.7% 25.3% 21.5% 18.6% 16.3% 14.5% 13.1%
98s 51.1% 36.0% 28.5% 23.6% 20.2% 17.8% 15.9% 14.5% 13.4%
QTo 57.4% 40.2% 31.3% 25.7% 21.6% 18.6% 16.3% 14.4% 12.9%
Q8s 56.2% 38.6% 29.7% 24.4% 20.7% 18.0% 16.0% 14.4% 13.2%
J8s 54.2% 37.5% 29.1% 24.0% 20.5% 17.9% 15.9% 14.4% 13.2%
66 63.3% 43.2% 31.5% 24.5% 20.1% 17.3% 15.4% 14.0% 13.1%
K6s 56.8% 38.4% 29.1% 23.7% 20.1% 17.5% 15.6% 14.0% 12.8%
K5s 55.8% 37.4% 28.2% 23.0% 19.5% 17.0% 15.2% 13.7% 12.5%
87s 48.2% 33.9% 26.6% 22.0% 18.9% 16.7% 15.0% 13.7% 12.7%
97s 49.5% 34.2% 26.8% 22.1% 18.9% 16.6% 14.9% 13.6% 12.5%
T7s 51.0% 34.9% 27.0% 22.2% 19.0% 16.6% 14.8% 13.5% 12.4%
K4s 54.7% 36.4% 27.4% 22.3% 19.0% 16.6% 14.8% 13.4% 12.3%
Q7s 54.5% 36.7% 27.9% 22.7% 19.2% 16.7% 14.8% 13.3% 12.1%
55 60.3% 40.1% 28.8% 22.4% 18.5% 16.0% 14.4% 13.2% 12.3%
J7s 52.4% 35.4% 27.1% 22.2% 18.9% 16.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0%
76s 45.7% 32.0% 25.1% 20.8% 18.0% 15.9% 14.4% 13.2% 12.3%
K3s 53.8% 35.5% 26.7% 21.7% 18.4% 16.2% 14.5% 13.1% 12.1%
K2s 52.9% 34.6% 26.0% 21.2% 18.1% 15.9% 14.3% 13.0% 11.9%
44 57.0% 36.8% 26.3% 20.6% 17.3% 15.2% 13.9% 12.9% 12.1%
Q6s 53.8% 35.8% 27.1% 21.9% 18.5% 16.1% 14.3% 12.9% 11.7%
86s 46.5% 32.0% 25.0% 20.6% 17.6% 15.6% 14.1% 12.9% 11.9%
A9o 60.9% 41.8% 31.2% 24.7% 20.3% 17.1% 14.7% 12.8% 11.2%
Q5s 52.9% 34.9% 26.3% 21.4% 18.1% 15.8% 14.1% 12.7% 11.6%
65s 43.2% 30.2% 23.7% 19.7% 17.0% 15.2% 13.8% 12.7% 11.9%
33 53.7% 33.5% 23.9% 19.0% 16.2% 14.6% 13.5% 12.6% 12.0%
T9o 51.7% 35.7% 27.7% 22.5% 18.9% 16.2% 14.1% 12.6% 11.3%
22 50.3% 30.7% 22.0% 17.8% 15.5% 14.2% 13.3% 12.5% 12.0%
54s 41.1% 28.8% 22.6% 18.9% 16.5% 14.8% 13.5% 12.5% 11.7%
Q4s 51.7% 33.9% 25.5% 20.7% 17.6% 15.4% 13.7% 12.4% 11.3%
96s 47.7% 32.3% 24.9% 20.4% 17.4% 15.3% 13.7% 12.4% 11.4%
K9o 58.0% 39.5% 29.6% 23.6% 19.5% 16.5% 14.1% 12.3% 10.8%
T6s 49.2% 32.8% 25.1% 20.5% 17.4% 15.2% 13.6% 12.3% 11.2%
75s 43.8% 30.1% 23.4% 19.4% 16.7% 14.8% 13.4% 12.3% 11.4%
Q9o 55.5% 37.6% 28.5% 22.9% 19.0% 16.1% 13.8% 12.1% 10.7%
J9o 53.4% 36.5% 27.9% 22.5% 18.7% 15.9% 13.8% 12.1% 10.8%
J6s 50.8% 33.6% 25.4% 20.6% 17.4% 15.2% 13.5% 12.1% 11.1%
Q3s 50.7% 33.0% 24.7% 20.1% 17.0% 14.9% 13.3% 12.1% 11.1%
A8o 60.1% 40.8% 30.1% 23.7% 19.4% 16.2% 13.9% 12.0% 10.6%
Q2s 49.9% 32.2% 24.0% 19.5% 16.6% 14.6% 13.1% 11.9% 10.9%
64s 41.4% 28.5% 22.1% 18.4% 15.9% 14.2% 12.9% 11.9% 11.1%
J5s 50.0% 32.8% 24.7% 20.0% 17.0% 14.7% 13.1% 11.8% 10.8%
85s 44.8% 30.2% 23.2% 19.1% 16.3% 14.3% 12.9% 11.8% 10.9%
53s 39.3% 27.1% 21.1% 17.5% 15.2% 13.7% 12.5% 11.6% 10.8%
A5o 57.7% 38.2% 27.9% 22.0% 18.0% 15.2% 13.1% 11.5% 10.1%
J4s 49.0% 31.8% 24.0% 19.4% 16.4% 14.3% 12.8% 11.5% 10.6%
A7o 59.1% 39.4% 28.9% 22.6% 18.4% 15.4% 13.2% 11.4% 10.1%
J3s 47.9% 30.9% 23.2% 18.8% 16.0% 14.0% 12.5% 11.3% 10.4%
95s 45.9% 30.4% 23.2% 18.8% 16.0% 13.9% 12.4% 11.3% 10.3%
T5s 47.2% 30.8% 23.3% 18.9% 16.0% 13.9% 12.4% 11.2% 10.2%
74s 41.8% 28.2% 21.7% 17.9% 15.3% 13.5% 12.2% 11.2% 10.4%
J2s 47.1% 30.1% 22.6% 18.3% 15.6% 13.7% 12.2% 11.1% 10.2%
43s 38.0% 26.2% 20.3% 16.9% 14.7% 13.1% 12.0% 11.1% 10.3%
A4o 56.4% 36.9% 26.9% 21.1% 17.3% 14.7% 12.6% 11.0% 9.8%
T8o 50.0% 33.6% 25.4% 20.4% 16.9% 14.4% 12.5% 11.0% 9.9%
T4s 46.4% 30.1% 22.7% 18.4% 15.6% 13.6% 12.1% 11.0% 10.0%
A6o 57.8% 38.0% 27.6% 21.5% 17.5% 14.7% 12.6% 10.9% 9.6%
98o 48.4% 32.9% 25.1% 20.1% 16.6% 14.2% 12.3% 10.9% 9.9%
K8o 56.3% 37.2% 27.3% 21.4% 17.4% 14.6% 12.5% 10.8% 9.4%
63s 39.4% 26.5% 20.4% 16.8% 14.5% 12.9% 11.7% 10.8% 10.0%
A3o 55.6% 35.9% 26.1% 20.4% 16.7% 14.2% 12.2% 10.7% 9.5%
J8o 51.7% 34.2% 25.6% 20.4% 16.8% 14.1% 12.2% 10.7% 9.5%
T3s 45.5% 29.3% 22.0% 17.8% 15.1% 13.2% 11.8% 10.7% 9.8%
84s 42.7% 28.1% 21.4% 17.4% 14.8% 13.0% 11.7% 10.6% 9.8%
52s 37.5% 25.3% 19.5% 16.1% 14.0% 12.5% 11.4% 10.6% 9.8%
Q8o 53.8% 35.4% 26.2% 20.6% 16.9% 14.1% 12.1% 10.5% 9.2%
T2s 44.7% 28.5% 21.4% 17.4% 14.8% 13.0% 11.6% 10.5% 9.7%
42s 36.3% 24.6% 18.8% 15.7% 13.7% 12.3% 11.2% 10.4% 9.6%
87o 45.5% 30.6% 23.2% 18.5% 15.4% 13.1% 11.5% 10.3% 9.3%
94s 43.8% 28.4% 21.3% 17.3% 14.6% 12.7% 11.3% 10.3% 9.4%
K7o 55.4% 36.1% 26.3% 20.5% 16.7% 13.9% 11.8% 10.2% 9.0%
A2o 54.6% 35.0% 25.2% 19.6% 16.1% 13.6% 11.7% 10.2% 9.1%
93s 43.2% 27.8% 20.8% 16.8% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.1% 9.2%
73s 40.0% 26.3% 20.0% 16.4% 14.0% 12.3% 11.1% 10.1% 9.3%
92s 42.3% 27.0% 20.2% 16.4% 13.9% 12.2% 10.9% 9.9% 9.1%
32s 35.1% 23.6% 18.0% 14.9% 13.0% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9% 9.2%
K6o 54.3% 35.0% 25.3% 19.7% 16.0% 13.3% 11.3% 9.8% 8.6%
97o 46.7% 30.9% 23.1% 18.4% 15.1% 12.8% 11.1% 9.8% 8.8%
62s 37.5% 24.8% 18.8% 15.4% 13.3% 11.8% 10.7% 9.8% 9.1%
T7o 48.2% 31.4% 23.4% 18.4% 15.1% 12.8% 11.0% 9.7% 8.6%
83s 40.8% 26.3% 19.8% 16.0% 13.6% 11.9% 10.7% 9.7% 8.9%
76o 42.7% 28.5% 21.5% 17.1% 14.2% 12.2% 10.8% 9.6% 8.8%
82s 40.3% 25.8% 19.4% 15.7% 13.3% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 8.8%
K5o 53.3% 34.0% 24.5% 19.0% 15.4% 12.9% 11.0% 9.5% 8.3%
Q7o 51.9% 33.2% 24.0% 18.6% 15.1% 12.5% 10.6% 9.2% 8.0%
J7o 49.9% 32.1% 23.5% 18.3% 14.9% 12.4% 10.6% 9.2% 8.1%
86o 43.6% 28.6% 21.3% 16.9% 13.9% 11.8% 10.4% 9.2% 8.3%
65o 40.1% 26.7% 20.0% 15.9% 13.3% 11.5% 10.2% 9.2% 8.5%
72s 38.1% 24.5% 18.4% 15.0% 12.8% 11.2% 10.1% 9.2% 8.5%
K4o 52.1% 32.8% 23.4% 18.1% 14.7% 12.3% 10.5% 9.1% 8.0%
K3o 51.2% 31.9% 22.7% 17.6% 14.2% 11.9% 10.2% 8.9% 7.8%
54o 37.9% 25.2% 18.8% 15.0% 12.6% 11.0% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2%
Q6o 51.1% 32.3% 23.2% 17.9% 14.4% 12.0% 10.1% 8.8% 7.6%
96o 44.9% 28.8% 21.2% 16.6% 13.5% 11.4% 9.8% 8.7% 7.8%
75o 40.8% 26.5% 19.7% 15.5% 12.8% 11.0% 9.7% 8.7% 7.9%
K2o 50.2% 30.9% 21.8% 16.9% 13.7% 11.5% 9.8% 8.6% 7.6%
Q5o 50.2% 31.3% 22.3% 17.3% 13.9% 11.6% 9.8% 8.5% 7.4%
T6o 46.3% 29.2% 21.2% 16.5% 13.4% 11.2% 9.5% 8.3% 7.3%
64o 38.0% 24.7% 18.2% 14.4% 12.0% 10.3% 9.2% 8.3% 7.6%
Q4o 49.0% 30.2% 21.4% 16.4% 13.3% 11.0% 9.4% 8.1% 7.1%
85o 41.7% 26.5% 19.4% 15.2% 12.4% 10.5% 9.1% 8.1% 7.3%
J6o 47.9% 29.8% 21.4% 16.5% 13.2% 11.0% 9.3% 8.0% 7.0%
53o 35.8% 23.3% 17.1% 13.6% 11.4% 9.9% 8.8% 8.0% 7.3%
Q3o 47.9% 29.2% 20.7% 15.9% 12.8% 10.7% 9.1% 7.9% 6.9%
J5o 47.1% 29.1% 20.7% 15.9% 12.8% 10.6% 8.9% 7.7% 6.7%
Q2o 47.0% 28.4% 19.9% 15.3% 12.3% 10.3% 8.8% 7.7% 6.8%
74o 38.6% 24.5% 17.9% 13.9% 11.4% 9.7% 8.5% 7.6% 6.8%
J4o 46.1% 28.1% 19.9% 15.3% 12.3% 10.2% 8.6% 7.5% 6.5%
43o 34.4% 22.3% 16.3% 12.8% 10.7% 9.3% 8.3% 7.5% 6.8%
95o 42.9% 26.7% 19.2% 14.8% 12.0% 10.0% 8.5% 7.4% 6.6%
J3o 45.0% 27.1% 19.1% 14.6% 11.7% 9.8% 8.3% 7.2% 6.3%
T5o 44.2% 27.1% 19.3% 14.8% 11.9% 9.9% 8.4% 7.2% 6.4%
63o 35.9% 22.7% 16.4% 12.8% 10.6% 9.1% 8.0% 7.2% 6.5%
J2o 44.0% 26.2% 18.4% 14.1% 11.3% 9.4% 8.0% 7.0% 6.2%
T4o 43.4% 26.4% 18.7% 14.3% 11.5% 9.5% 8.1% 7.0% 6.2%
T3o 42.4% 25.5% 18.0% 13.7% 11.0% 9.1% 7.8% 6.8% 6.0%
84o 39.6% 24.4% 17.5% 13.4% 10.8% 9.0% 7.8% 6.8% 6.1%
52o 33.9% 21.3% 15.3% 12.0% 10.0% 8.6% 7.6% 6.8% 6.2%
T2o 41.5% 24.7% 17.3% 13.2% 10.6% 8.8% 7.5% 6.6% 5.8%
42o 32.5% 20.5% 14.7% 11.5% 9.5% 8.3% 7.3% 6.6% 6.0%
94o 40.7% 24.6% 17.3% 13.2% 10.5% 8.7% 7.3% 6.4% 5.6%
73o 36.6% 22.4% 16.0% 12.3% 9.9% 8.4% 7.2% 6.4% 5.7%
93o 39.9% 23.9% 16.7% 12.7% 10.1% 8.3% 7.1% 6.1% 5.4%
32o 31.2% 19.5% 13.9% 10.8% 8.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.1% 5.6%
62o 34.0% 20.7% 14.6% 11.2% 9.1% 7.8% 6.8% 6.0% 5.4%
92o 38.9% 22.9% 16.0% 12.1% 9.6% 8.0% 6.8% 5.9% 5.2%
83o 37.5% 22.4% 15.7% 11.9% 9.5% 7.9% 6.7% 5.8% 5.1%
82o 36.8% 21.7% 15.1% 11.4% 9.1% 7.5% 6.4% 5.6% 4.9%
72o 34.6% 20.4% 14.2% 10.7% 8.6% 7.2% 6.1% 5.4% 4.8%

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