Monday, April 18, 2011

Hand charts... A Monte Carlo simulation

Life continues.  I don't plan on a cessation from posting on this blog.  HHs may get thin, content may get thing, but I do plan on keeping this blog active & alive.  Anyway, on with the post for today:

Hoyazo was bemoaning his play with KQ (suited or not), so we've had a bit of back and forth regarding the merits of playing that particular hand from early position.  It was my stance that KQ is a second-tier hand, whereby there is negligible difference between JJ and KQs.  In other words, if you dump KQs in EP, you should consider dumping JJ and other manner of hands.  My basis for that statement is absolute hand strength; KQs shows up among the top 10 strongest hands in terms of total hands strength, i.e. if you take X amount of players, deal them 2 cards each and deal a flop, turn and river, KQs is among the top ten winners (in a 6+ -person game).  Granted, this simulation is not entirely realistic; it does not take into account folds, bluffs, boards, etc., but it gives some ground for which one can derive hands that he should or should not be playing.  It is also worth noting that the simulation does not take into account opposing hands; i.e. in a heads-up battle, even though KQs may be a 63.4% overall, it is certainly dominated by AK, AQ, AA, KK, and QQ.  However, it is either ahead of, dominating, or flipping with all other hands non-Ace hands, and slightly behind any Ax (excluding the above) hands.  Given that status on the hierarchy, I believe that KQ is a playable hand from all positions - particularly KQs - and one should continue to raise KQ.

DISCLAIMER: Obviously, situations change and the above is my overall opinion; if I'm in a very tight game and get called holding KQ, I'm probably questioning whether I'm ahead on most flops, but in a loose game, I'm going to be very comfortable with most flops where I hit a King or Queen.  Moreover, if I'm getting 3bet from a tighter / normal 3 bettor, I'm inclined to fold this hand, as it won't flop big and the standard 3bet range includes many hands that dominate KQ.  Finally, I recognize that this hand generally flops a medium strength hand when it connects; therefore, if I'm meeting a lot of resistance, I'm not putting a TON of faith in this hand.

Finally, I have placed the chart below, for your convenience.  For what it's worth, it is sorted by a 9-player game, though the hand strengths don't move significantly until you sort by 2 players.  I'd imagine that you can copy this hand chart into an excel spreadsheet and manipulate it as you see fit.  In my journey to become a more serious poker player, I used this to define my pre-flop starting hands, before I realize the multitude of other resources available.  Enjoy!

Players 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AA 85.3% 73.4% 63.9% 55.9% 49.2% 43.6% 38.8% 34.7% 31.1%
KK 82.4% 68.9% 58.2% 49.8% 43.0% 37.5% 32.9% 29.2% 26.1%
QQ 79.9% 64.9% 53.5% 44.7% 37.9% 32.5% 28.3% 24.9% 22.2%
AKs 67.0% 50.7% 41.4% 35.4% 31.1% 27.7% 25.0% 22.7% 20.7%
JJ 77.5% 61.2% 49.2% 40.3% 33.6% 28.5% 24.6% 21.6% 19.3%
AQs 66.1% 49.4% 39.9% 33.7% 29.4% 26.0% 23.3% 21.1% 19.3%
KQs 63.4% 47.1% 38.2% 32.5% 28.3% 25.1% 22.5% 20.4% 18.6%
AJs 65.4% 48.2% 38.5% 32.2% 27.8% 24.5% 22.0% 19.9% 18.1%
KJs 62.6% 45.9% 36.8% 31.1% 26.9% 23.8% 21.3% 19.3% 17.6%
TT 75.1% 57.7% 45.2% 36.4% 30.0% 25.3% 21.8% 19.2% 17.2%
AKo 65.4% 48.2% 38.6% 32.4% 27.9% 24.4% 21.6% 19.2% 17.2%
ATs 64.7% 47.1% 37.2% 31.0% 26.7% 23.5% 21.0% 18.9% 17.3%
QJs 60.3% 44.1% 35.6% 30.1% 26.1% 23.0% 20.7% 18.7% 17.1%
KTs 61.9% 44.9% 35.7% 29.9% 25.8% 22.8% 20.4% 18.5% 16.9%
QTs 59.5% 43.1% 34.6% 29.1% 25.2% 22.3% 19.9% 18.1% 16.6%
JTs 57.5% 41.9% 33.8% 28.5% 24.7% 21.9% 19.7% 17.9% 16.5%
AQo 64.5% 46.8% 36.9% 30.4% 25.9% 22.5% 19.7% 17.5% 15.5%
99 72.1% 53.5% 41.1% 32.6% 26.6% 22.4% 19.4% 17.2% 15.6%
A9s 63.0% 44.8% 34.6% 28.4% 24.2% 21.1% 18.8% 16.9% 15.4%
KQo 61.4% 44.4% 35.2% 29.3% 25.1% 21.8% 19.1% 16.9% 15.1%
K9s 60.0% 42.4% 32.9% 27.2% 23.2% 20.3% 18.1% 16.3% 14.8%
A8s 62.1% 43.7% 33.6% 27.4% 23.3% 20.3% 18.0% 16.2% 14.8%
T9s 54.3% 38.9% 31.0% 26.0% 22.5% 19.8% 17.8% 16.2% 14.9%
AJo 63.6% 45.6% 35.4% 28.9% 24.4% 21.0% 18.3% 16.1% 14.3%
A5s 59.9% 41.4% 31.8% 26.0% 22.2% 19.6% 17.5% 15.9% 14.5%
Q9s 57.9% 40.7% 31.9% 26.4% 22.5% 19.7% 17.6% 15.9% 14.5%
J9s 55.8% 39.6% 31.3% 26.1% 22.4% 19.7% 17.6% 15.9% 14.6%
88 69.1% 49.9% 37.5% 29.4% 24.0% 20.3% 17.7% 15.8% 14.4%
A7s 61.1% 42.6% 32.6% 26.5% 22.5% 19.6% 17.4% 15.7% 14.3%
KJo 60.6% 43.1% 33.6% 27.6% 23.5% 20.2% 17.7% 15.6% 13.9%
A4s 58.9% 40.4% 30.9% 25.3% 21.6% 19.0% 17.0% 15.5% 14.2%
A6s 60.0% 41.3% 31.4% 25.6% 21.7% 19.0% 16.9% 15.3% 14.0%
QJo 58.2% 41.4% 32.6% 26.9% 22.9% 19.8% 17.3% 15.3% 13.7%
ATo 62.9% 44.4% 34.1% 27.6% 23.1% 19.8% 17.2% 15.1% 13.4%
A3s 58.0% 39.4% 30.0% 24.6% 21.0% 18.5% 16.6% 15.1% 13.9%
77 66.2% 46.4% 34.4% 26.8% 21.9% 18.6% 16.4% 14.8% 13.7%
K8s 58.5% 40.2% 30.8% 25.1% 21.3% 18.6% 16.5% 14.8% 13.5%
T8s 52.6% 36.9% 29.0% 24.0% 20.6% 18.1% 16.2% 14.8% 13.6%
KTo 59.9% 42.0% 32.5% 26.5% 22.3% 19.2% 16.7% 14.7% 13.1%
A2s 57.0% 38.5% 29.2% 23.9% 20.4% 18.0% 16.1% 14.6% 13.4%
K7s 57.8% 39.4% 30.1% 24.5% 20.8% 18.1% 16.0% 14.5% 13.2%
JTo 55.4% 39.0% 30.7% 25.3% 21.5% 18.6% 16.3% 14.5% 13.1%
98s 51.1% 36.0% 28.5% 23.6% 20.2% 17.8% 15.9% 14.5% 13.4%
QTo 57.4% 40.2% 31.3% 25.7% 21.6% 18.6% 16.3% 14.4% 12.9%
Q8s 56.2% 38.6% 29.7% 24.4% 20.7% 18.0% 16.0% 14.4% 13.2%
J8s 54.2% 37.5% 29.1% 24.0% 20.5% 17.9% 15.9% 14.4% 13.2%
66 63.3% 43.2% 31.5% 24.5% 20.1% 17.3% 15.4% 14.0% 13.1%
K6s 56.8% 38.4% 29.1% 23.7% 20.1% 17.5% 15.6% 14.0% 12.8%
K5s 55.8% 37.4% 28.2% 23.0% 19.5% 17.0% 15.2% 13.7% 12.5%
87s 48.2% 33.9% 26.6% 22.0% 18.9% 16.7% 15.0% 13.7% 12.7%
97s 49.5% 34.2% 26.8% 22.1% 18.9% 16.6% 14.9% 13.6% 12.5%
T7s 51.0% 34.9% 27.0% 22.2% 19.0% 16.6% 14.8% 13.5% 12.4%
K4s 54.7% 36.4% 27.4% 22.3% 19.0% 16.6% 14.8% 13.4% 12.3%
Q7s 54.5% 36.7% 27.9% 22.7% 19.2% 16.7% 14.8% 13.3% 12.1%
55 60.3% 40.1% 28.8% 22.4% 18.5% 16.0% 14.4% 13.2% 12.3%
J7s 52.4% 35.4% 27.1% 22.2% 18.9% 16.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0%
76s 45.7% 32.0% 25.1% 20.8% 18.0% 15.9% 14.4% 13.2% 12.3%
K3s 53.8% 35.5% 26.7% 21.7% 18.4% 16.2% 14.5% 13.1% 12.1%
K2s 52.9% 34.6% 26.0% 21.2% 18.1% 15.9% 14.3% 13.0% 11.9%
44 57.0% 36.8% 26.3% 20.6% 17.3% 15.2% 13.9% 12.9% 12.1%
Q6s 53.8% 35.8% 27.1% 21.9% 18.5% 16.1% 14.3% 12.9% 11.7%
86s 46.5% 32.0% 25.0% 20.6% 17.6% 15.6% 14.1% 12.9% 11.9%
A9o 60.9% 41.8% 31.2% 24.7% 20.3% 17.1% 14.7% 12.8% 11.2%
Q5s 52.9% 34.9% 26.3% 21.4% 18.1% 15.8% 14.1% 12.7% 11.6%
65s 43.2% 30.2% 23.7% 19.7% 17.0% 15.2% 13.8% 12.7% 11.9%
33 53.7% 33.5% 23.9% 19.0% 16.2% 14.6% 13.5% 12.6% 12.0%
T9o 51.7% 35.7% 27.7% 22.5% 18.9% 16.2% 14.1% 12.6% 11.3%
22 50.3% 30.7% 22.0% 17.8% 15.5% 14.2% 13.3% 12.5% 12.0%
54s 41.1% 28.8% 22.6% 18.9% 16.5% 14.8% 13.5% 12.5% 11.7%
Q4s 51.7% 33.9% 25.5% 20.7% 17.6% 15.4% 13.7% 12.4% 11.3%
96s 47.7% 32.3% 24.9% 20.4% 17.4% 15.3% 13.7% 12.4% 11.4%
K9o 58.0% 39.5% 29.6% 23.6% 19.5% 16.5% 14.1% 12.3% 10.8%
T6s 49.2% 32.8% 25.1% 20.5% 17.4% 15.2% 13.6% 12.3% 11.2%
75s 43.8% 30.1% 23.4% 19.4% 16.7% 14.8% 13.4% 12.3% 11.4%
Q9o 55.5% 37.6% 28.5% 22.9% 19.0% 16.1% 13.8% 12.1% 10.7%
J9o 53.4% 36.5% 27.9% 22.5% 18.7% 15.9% 13.8% 12.1% 10.8%
J6s 50.8% 33.6% 25.4% 20.6% 17.4% 15.2% 13.5% 12.1% 11.1%
Q3s 50.7% 33.0% 24.7% 20.1% 17.0% 14.9% 13.3% 12.1% 11.1%
A8o 60.1% 40.8% 30.1% 23.7% 19.4% 16.2% 13.9% 12.0% 10.6%
Q2s 49.9% 32.2% 24.0% 19.5% 16.6% 14.6% 13.1% 11.9% 10.9%
64s 41.4% 28.5% 22.1% 18.4% 15.9% 14.2% 12.9% 11.9% 11.1%
J5s 50.0% 32.8% 24.7% 20.0% 17.0% 14.7% 13.1% 11.8% 10.8%
85s 44.8% 30.2% 23.2% 19.1% 16.3% 14.3% 12.9% 11.8% 10.9%
53s 39.3% 27.1% 21.1% 17.5% 15.2% 13.7% 12.5% 11.6% 10.8%
A5o 57.7% 38.2% 27.9% 22.0% 18.0% 15.2% 13.1% 11.5% 10.1%
J4s 49.0% 31.8% 24.0% 19.4% 16.4% 14.3% 12.8% 11.5% 10.6%
A7o 59.1% 39.4% 28.9% 22.6% 18.4% 15.4% 13.2% 11.4% 10.1%
J3s 47.9% 30.9% 23.2% 18.8% 16.0% 14.0% 12.5% 11.3% 10.4%
95s 45.9% 30.4% 23.2% 18.8% 16.0% 13.9% 12.4% 11.3% 10.3%
T5s 47.2% 30.8% 23.3% 18.9% 16.0% 13.9% 12.4% 11.2% 10.2%
74s 41.8% 28.2% 21.7% 17.9% 15.3% 13.5% 12.2% 11.2% 10.4%
J2s 47.1% 30.1% 22.6% 18.3% 15.6% 13.7% 12.2% 11.1% 10.2%
43s 38.0% 26.2% 20.3% 16.9% 14.7% 13.1% 12.0% 11.1% 10.3%
A4o 56.4% 36.9% 26.9% 21.1% 17.3% 14.7% 12.6% 11.0% 9.8%
T8o 50.0% 33.6% 25.4% 20.4% 16.9% 14.4% 12.5% 11.0% 9.9%
T4s 46.4% 30.1% 22.7% 18.4% 15.6% 13.6% 12.1% 11.0% 10.0%
A6o 57.8% 38.0% 27.6% 21.5% 17.5% 14.7% 12.6% 10.9% 9.6%
98o 48.4% 32.9% 25.1% 20.1% 16.6% 14.2% 12.3% 10.9% 9.9%
K8o 56.3% 37.2% 27.3% 21.4% 17.4% 14.6% 12.5% 10.8% 9.4%
63s 39.4% 26.5% 20.4% 16.8% 14.5% 12.9% 11.7% 10.8% 10.0%
A3o 55.6% 35.9% 26.1% 20.4% 16.7% 14.2% 12.2% 10.7% 9.5%
J8o 51.7% 34.2% 25.6% 20.4% 16.8% 14.1% 12.2% 10.7% 9.5%
T3s 45.5% 29.3% 22.0% 17.8% 15.1% 13.2% 11.8% 10.7% 9.8%
84s 42.7% 28.1% 21.4% 17.4% 14.8% 13.0% 11.7% 10.6% 9.8%
52s 37.5% 25.3% 19.5% 16.1% 14.0% 12.5% 11.4% 10.6% 9.8%
Q8o 53.8% 35.4% 26.2% 20.6% 16.9% 14.1% 12.1% 10.5% 9.2%
T2s 44.7% 28.5% 21.4% 17.4% 14.8% 13.0% 11.6% 10.5% 9.7%
42s 36.3% 24.6% 18.8% 15.7% 13.7% 12.3% 11.2% 10.4% 9.6%
87o 45.5% 30.6% 23.2% 18.5% 15.4% 13.1% 11.5% 10.3% 9.3%
94s 43.8% 28.4% 21.3% 17.3% 14.6% 12.7% 11.3% 10.3% 9.4%
K7o 55.4% 36.1% 26.3% 20.5% 16.7% 13.9% 11.8% 10.2% 9.0%
A2o 54.6% 35.0% 25.2% 19.6% 16.1% 13.6% 11.7% 10.2% 9.1%
93s 43.2% 27.8% 20.8% 16.8% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.1% 9.2%
73s 40.0% 26.3% 20.0% 16.4% 14.0% 12.3% 11.1% 10.1% 9.3%
92s 42.3% 27.0% 20.2% 16.4% 13.9% 12.2% 10.9% 9.9% 9.1%
32s 35.1% 23.6% 18.0% 14.9% 13.0% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9% 9.2%
K6o 54.3% 35.0% 25.3% 19.7% 16.0% 13.3% 11.3% 9.8% 8.6%
97o 46.7% 30.9% 23.1% 18.4% 15.1% 12.8% 11.1% 9.8% 8.8%
62s 37.5% 24.8% 18.8% 15.4% 13.3% 11.8% 10.7% 9.8% 9.1%
T7o 48.2% 31.4% 23.4% 18.4% 15.1% 12.8% 11.0% 9.7% 8.6%
83s 40.8% 26.3% 19.8% 16.0% 13.6% 11.9% 10.7% 9.7% 8.9%
76o 42.7% 28.5% 21.5% 17.1% 14.2% 12.2% 10.8% 9.6% 8.8%
82s 40.3% 25.8% 19.4% 15.7% 13.3% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 8.8%
K5o 53.3% 34.0% 24.5% 19.0% 15.4% 12.9% 11.0% 9.5% 8.3%
Q7o 51.9% 33.2% 24.0% 18.6% 15.1% 12.5% 10.6% 9.2% 8.0%
J7o 49.9% 32.1% 23.5% 18.3% 14.9% 12.4% 10.6% 9.2% 8.1%
86o 43.6% 28.6% 21.3% 16.9% 13.9% 11.8% 10.4% 9.2% 8.3%
65o 40.1% 26.7% 20.0% 15.9% 13.3% 11.5% 10.2% 9.2% 8.5%
72s 38.1% 24.5% 18.4% 15.0% 12.8% 11.2% 10.1% 9.2% 8.5%
K4o 52.1% 32.8% 23.4% 18.1% 14.7% 12.3% 10.5% 9.1% 8.0%
K3o 51.2% 31.9% 22.7% 17.6% 14.2% 11.9% 10.2% 8.9% 7.8%
54o 37.9% 25.2% 18.8% 15.0% 12.6% 11.0% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2%
Q6o 51.1% 32.3% 23.2% 17.9% 14.4% 12.0% 10.1% 8.8% 7.6%
96o 44.9% 28.8% 21.2% 16.6% 13.5% 11.4% 9.8% 8.7% 7.8%
75o 40.8% 26.5% 19.7% 15.5% 12.8% 11.0% 9.7% 8.7% 7.9%
K2o 50.2% 30.9% 21.8% 16.9% 13.7% 11.5% 9.8% 8.6% 7.6%
Q5o 50.2% 31.3% 22.3% 17.3% 13.9% 11.6% 9.8% 8.5% 7.4%
T6o 46.3% 29.2% 21.2% 16.5% 13.4% 11.2% 9.5% 8.3% 7.3%
64o 38.0% 24.7% 18.2% 14.4% 12.0% 10.3% 9.2% 8.3% 7.6%
Q4o 49.0% 30.2% 21.4% 16.4% 13.3% 11.0% 9.4% 8.1% 7.1%
85o 41.7% 26.5% 19.4% 15.2% 12.4% 10.5% 9.1% 8.1% 7.3%
J6o 47.9% 29.8% 21.4% 16.5% 13.2% 11.0% 9.3% 8.0% 7.0%
53o 35.8% 23.3% 17.1% 13.6% 11.4% 9.9% 8.8% 8.0% 7.3%
Q3o 47.9% 29.2% 20.7% 15.9% 12.8% 10.7% 9.1% 7.9% 6.9%
J5o 47.1% 29.1% 20.7% 15.9% 12.8% 10.6% 8.9% 7.7% 6.7%
Q2o 47.0% 28.4% 19.9% 15.3% 12.3% 10.3% 8.8% 7.7% 6.8%
74o 38.6% 24.5% 17.9% 13.9% 11.4% 9.7% 8.5% 7.6% 6.8%
J4o 46.1% 28.1% 19.9% 15.3% 12.3% 10.2% 8.6% 7.5% 6.5%
43o 34.4% 22.3% 16.3% 12.8% 10.7% 9.3% 8.3% 7.5% 6.8%
95o 42.9% 26.7% 19.2% 14.8% 12.0% 10.0% 8.5% 7.4% 6.6%
J3o 45.0% 27.1% 19.1% 14.6% 11.7% 9.8% 8.3% 7.2% 6.3%
T5o 44.2% 27.1% 19.3% 14.8% 11.9% 9.9% 8.4% 7.2% 6.4%
63o 35.9% 22.7% 16.4% 12.8% 10.6% 9.1% 8.0% 7.2% 6.5%
J2o 44.0% 26.2% 18.4% 14.1% 11.3% 9.4% 8.0% 7.0% 6.2%
T4o 43.4% 26.4% 18.7% 14.3% 11.5% 9.5% 8.1% 7.0% 6.2%
T3o 42.4% 25.5% 18.0% 13.7% 11.0% 9.1% 7.8% 6.8% 6.0%
84o 39.6% 24.4% 17.5% 13.4% 10.8% 9.0% 7.8% 6.8% 6.1%
52o 33.9% 21.3% 15.3% 12.0% 10.0% 8.6% 7.6% 6.8% 6.2%
T2o 41.5% 24.7% 17.3% 13.2% 10.6% 8.8% 7.5% 6.6% 5.8%
42o 32.5% 20.5% 14.7% 11.5% 9.5% 8.3% 7.3% 6.6% 6.0%
94o 40.7% 24.6% 17.3% 13.2% 10.5% 8.7% 7.3% 6.4% 5.6%
73o 36.6% 22.4% 16.0% 12.3% 9.9% 8.4% 7.2% 6.4% 5.7%
93o 39.9% 23.9% 16.7% 12.7% 10.1% 8.3% 7.1% 6.1% 5.4%
32o 31.2% 19.5% 13.9% 10.8% 8.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.1% 5.6%
62o 34.0% 20.7% 14.6% 11.2% 9.1% 7.8% 6.8% 6.0% 5.4%
92o 38.9% 22.9% 16.0% 12.1% 9.6% 8.0% 6.8% 5.9% 5.2%
83o 37.5% 22.4% 15.7% 11.9% 9.5% 7.9% 6.7% 5.8% 5.1%
82o 36.8% 21.7% 15.1% 11.4% 9.1% 7.5% 6.4% 5.6% 4.9%
72o 34.6% 20.4% 14.2% 10.7% 8.6% 7.2% 6.1% 5.4% 4.8%

1 comment:

  1. very useful thanks!
    gluck with the monies from tilt esp the points/medals

    ReplyDelete

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