Qs2s4h
At this point, there's approx. $14 in the pot, and it checks around to me - I take the lead with my top / bottom / backdoor and put in a bet of $10. The BTN flats and the SB decides to c/r me to $25. In my estimation, the BTN is capable of playing level 1 poker; he knows the strength of his hand and can be playing all the way from QT+ to sets. I put very little credence in the possibility that he could show up with a draw where he's check / raising - there are very few people at my table who would consider doing such a thing.
Regardless, a middle position player opts to flat the $25 and the action comes around to me. I ponder for a bit; I believe the MP to be on a draw, be it 5 3 or spades, and the BTN to have a weak hand or draw as well. I am honestly worried about one hand which beats me: 44, out of the SB, but I'm not all that concerned because I think he slow plays a set.
With all other hands that he could have, I'm fairly comfortable that I'm ahead. Therefore, I opt to 3 bet him to $75, which pushes out the BTN. After pondering for a bit, he pushes his remaining $175 stack into the middle, which, much to the chagrin the MP, folds him out. I am facing a $100 bet;
What would you do?
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I really thought about this hand; the 3bet was not an easy decision, believe me. However, I did not expect him to be pushing his stack back at me. I wanted to put the BTN & MP to tough decisions, not expecting me to be the one with the tough decision. Hand the he shows up with where I have him beat: AQ, KQ, QJ/QT [doubtful but wishful], 5s 3s [doubtful but wishful], 4 2, Q2o. Hands that he has me crushed: 44, 22, Q4. FWIW, he's ABSOLUTELY raising QQ, PF.
There simply aren't enough combinations that have me beat where I can fold my hand. In the end, I decided to make the call, wrongly, because SB showed up with Q4o for flopped top two, though I honestly don't know if I would do it again. Granted, I made numerous huge errors in judgement - limping Q2s, 3betting a limped pot with nearly half effective stacks, and calling off for stacks on a limped pot. Lastly, let me not forget that I shouldn't overvalue my hand strength in the future; perhaps a call to the $25 c/r would have been appropriate with a shove turn when the heart drops (30% equity when drawing to the flush + 3 deuces). It also would have netted me more money, in a results-oriented way (I would have had the BTN call + MP).
In the end, I watched in delight and embarrassment (and totally tilted the guy) when the board ran backdoor hearts to give me the flush. I actually had stopped paying attention (and luckily turned my hand face up when I called all-in) figuring I was drawing to 3 deuces and semi-dead, because I would have mucked my hand not realizing that I hit my backdoor flush as an 85/15 dog.
There simply aren't enough combinations that have me beat where I can fold my hand. In the end, I decided to make the call, wrongly, because SB showed up with Q4o for flopped top two, though I honestly don't know if I would do it again. Granted, I made numerous huge errors in judgement - limping Q2s, 3betting a limped pot with nearly half effective stacks, and calling off for stacks on a limped pot. Lastly, let me not forget that I shouldn't overvalue my hand strength in the future; perhaps a call to the $25 c/r would have been appropriate with a shove turn when the heart drops (30% equity when drawing to the flush + 3 deuces). It also would have netted me more money, in a results-oriented way (I would have had the BTN call + MP).
In the end, I watched in delight and embarrassment (and totally tilted the guy) when the board ran backdoor hearts to give me the flush. I actually had stopped paying attention (and luckily turned my hand face up when I called all-in) figuring I was drawing to 3 deuces and semi-dead, because I would have mucked my hand not realizing that I hit my backdoor flush as an 85/15 dog.
Funny how I wouldn't DREAM of playing this way online, but I find myself pulling stuff like this in my live games sometimes also.
ReplyDeleteFrom a preflop perspective - while limping along is the temptation, with that many limpers the chances are good that they are limping small pairs and flushes that beat you - Q2 becomes a -EV play, especially for a raise. The Q4 was a surprise ( I would have expected him to be much stronger), but in the end makes sense. Your read was that he wouldn't raise/shove with a draw and you were right!
ReplyDeleteReminds me of the saying - don't go broke in a limped pot but would be difficult to get away from that hand/situation. Nice backdoor flush, ha.
ReplyDeleteI'd call. As you said, it is very likely your opponent is playing his own cards only, and may be getting overaggressive with a big Queen. Q4 and 44 are your only other real concerns (aside from a draw, which warrants a call.
ReplyDeleteI now read how the hand actually turned out, and let me just say that based on the info provided, I would've made the same play as you made.