I think this is fairly simple spot to start the Monday, but I'll put it out there anyway - to see what my readers think:
I'm on the CO facing a host of limpers - 5 to be exact, as is habitual in these live 1/2 games. I'm sitting on an $800 stack, and have the table easily covered.
I look down to find Td9d and decide to use my position to isolate the limpers. I raise to $16 - my typical formula is $7-8 base raise + $2 / limper - thus I arrived at a $16 raise. Ideally, I'd like to take it down immediately, but if I see a flop, there are worse cards the I could be holding... Anyway, the BTN decides to call, which of course welcomes in the BB and an MP limper. All others fold and we see a 4 way flop of 9s 8d 6d.
Immediately, the BB overshoves his remaining stack, $160, into the $~65 pot. The MP insta-folds, which leaves me and a tight-ish BTN yet to act. I sat there for a long time, debating the merits of calling his donk lead shove - From the nuts, T7, to AdKd (less likely), to sets.
At worst, in this spot, I'm drawing to 4 7's and 9 diamonds with the top pair as a potential backup. I have to discount the pairing outs, unless it's a runner runner - because I have to be way behind in this spot in so far as my pairing outs are concerned.
This is the first time I've seen this type of action from this player. During the time I've been at the table, he's played many hands - mostly ABC; check/ folding the misses and betting the goods. He's fairly weak/tight.
What would you do?
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I think at this point, I'm working to either a good flush or a good straight - 13 outs - giving me a roughly 50/50 shot. The question, though, is do I coin flip for basically a buy-in +$60 juice (already in the pot)? I wound up folding - not wanting to flip a coin like this, which turned out to be correct because I would have found myself way behind: The BTN showed 7 7, and the BB showed T 7o for the flopped nuts.
The table was dumbfounded that I folded the flush draw; was I incorrect to fold here, or is this one of those 0 expectation spots that, combined with the $60 juice made it a profitable call? Obviously, I ask this question given that I don't know the BTN has 7 7 and think I'm drawing to at least 3 live 7's.
The table was dumbfounded that I folded the flush draw; was I incorrect to fold here, or is this one of those 0 expectation spots that, combined with the $60 juice made it a profitable call? Obviously, I ask this question given that I don't know the BTN has 7 7 and think I'm drawing to at least 3 live 7's.
A bit confused because you gave no info on the bb:...I imagine his stack size after the button shove would have some merit in the decision-making, but I like the fold anyway. Based on your read he isn't the type of player who looks to maximize value or try to take the pot down with an overpair, praying no one has diamonds...I often find that live, that is a frequently used play by abc players who have say for a bit too long.
ReplyDeleteI fold and laugh at the overshover who apparently doesn't like money. Why doesn't he let the original raiser bet on a board where an overpair is so likely, then check/shove? Weak/tight, indeed
ReplyDeleteIf I was the last player left to act, I might see if I could get the guy to agree to run the board out 2 or 3 times, and then call.
Finally, the next iso-raise will need to be bigger. I'm thinking $25.
It looked like the pushing opponent was trying to push out draws because he had a made hand. Even with a decent amount of outs, I still think its a correct fold here, since there is another player yet to act behind you. It's just too much to call into that size of a pot with what is most likely a drawing hand.
ReplyDelete@Edgie - You mean no info on the BTN; The BTN had a far smaller stack remaining; probably around $100 total, so I wasn't in fear of a re-ship committing me beyond the $160 bet I was facing.
ReplyDelete@All - It's interesting that both Jordan & you were first to respond (Matt's response was kinda what I thought he'd say), but I figure the two of you for the gambling-it-up types who would be at the table in shock that I would fold.
I think the root of the WWYD for me is the question of whether I should be there, gambling, flipping coins, for $160 + $60. Am I wasting my time and scared money by not taking that prop bet?
call the shove.
ReplyDeleteeven if he's doing it with sets and t7, if there's one worse hand like jt you have the odds.
furthermore, if the button does call it's even better for you.