Thursday, June 23, 2011

What would you do? #239 - A coin flip?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
The Hand History Converter

CO: $27.67
BTN: $12.43
SB: $42.30 - 42/11 / 0%3bet / 2.1AF / 86% cbet / 50% fold to cbet @ 86 hands
BB: $29.74
Hero (UTG): $68.91
UTG+1: $27.04
MP1: $38.58
MP2: $25.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Jc Ac
Hero raises to $0.75, 5 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Ok.  So villain is a fish.  He sees a lot of hands, and to date, has won money by betting big (bluffing) or people not believing him when he hits his improbable hands.  He is most aggressive on the river.  He has shown down all manner of hands including AK, etc.  He loves to flat his monsters when facing a PFR.

Flop: ($1.75) Ad Jh Kc (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.00, SB raises to $12.50, Hero folds
I think my mistake in this hand is raising his lead.  There are 5 hands that beat me here: AA (unlikely), AK (more likely), JJ (unlikely), KK (possibly, but not likely), and QT (very likely).  On the flip side, there are 2 hands that I am crushing: AQ, KJ.  He can also be bluffing, but I can't see him bluffing HUGE like this, on the flop.

It seems to me that it comes down to the above situation, and given that we're so deep, I fold the hand with minimal loss.

Weak, I know, but the action and pushback that I was getting on this hand seemed like Aces up was beat.

As an aside, I would go on to later take his entire $60-70 stack from his all-too-frequent river bluffs from my turn checks.


  1. The $1.00 bet on the flop looks like a probe bet to see where he is. The re raise is almost certainly Q10, given the flop. its a good fold, given the situation.

  2. I don't agree. Vs a guy playing 42% of his hands his range is much much wider than just QT. He could probably play his top pair, Ax like this. When bad players donk lead flops like this it's because they don't really know how strong their hand is, so it's sort of probing. I mean imagine he has QT here, would a player with these stats not just check raise or even just check-call as not to scare you off? His stats don't say he is particularly aggressive post flop and what is your image?

    I think given you have position, I'd probably call this and re-evaluate the turn to see what he does.

  3. The problem with calling the 3bet is that I've committed 50BB of a roughly 150 BB effective stack. If I call here, I am somewhat committed to going to showdown with my Aces up. Clearly, if he has QT, he is incentivized to inflate the pot - he wants to get stacks in. If he doesn't bet bet bet each street, he has no chance of stacking me when we're so deep.


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