Tuesday, October 5, 2010

What would you do? #192 - Another overbet shove hand

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $95.50
BTN: $106.80
SB: $283.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $100.00
UTG+1: $142.45
MP1: $105.50
MP2: $112.80 - 12/8 / 22% steal / 4.1% 3bet / 3.8 AF / 81% cbet flop / 820 hands - Solid winning reg
His street by street AF is:
5.8 Flop (42% @ 77 times) 2.2 (31% @ 36 times) Turn 2.28 (46% @ 24 times) River 
Pre Flop: ($1.00) Hero is UTG with 9d 9s
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) 2s Tc 4d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $5, SB calls $5, Hero calls $5
I check to let Mr. 81% lead cbet my PFR.  No sense in raising here; if I raise, I blow him off all of his bluffs.

Turn: ($24.00) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $16, SB folds, Hero calls $16
As expected, he continues.

River: ($56.00) 5s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $88.80 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero folds
Okay?  Now what?  I realize that I've repped a fairly strong hand - JJ+.  I don't think I can call this.  This is a bluff / nuts & I'm erring on nuts / flopped sets with 3 streets of value.  I think he has to check through by the end of this hand...  What does he have?  AT?  No way!  He's got sets here and only sets.

Final Pot: $56.00
MP2 wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)


  1. His range is much wider than sets. My problem is that you don't have a clue (not you specifically) so I will rephrase. We don't have a clue really what he has. You gave him control of the hand.

    I'm not sure the river changes things.. If you think you were good on turn, then you probably should be good on river. Does he have 88. Maybe. Would have barrelling got him to fold earlier in the hand? Maybe/Maybe not.

    I'm guilty of these type lines as well and it just doesn't seem like it ends well all too often.

    As for the hand as played, I just don't know what I would have done. Probably fold.

  2. While I tend to agree he has more than 1 pair (most likely being sets because what 2 pair combo could he have here?), I completely disagree that you have represented JJ+ here. Any JJ+ raises the flop or the turn for value, and neither are checking both the flop an the turn. Even if it is a standard part of your game, it is not in 99% of other players games and he will not be giving you credit for JJ+ here, ever.

    I suspect he puts you on a weak 10, 99, 77, or 66 that was trying to get to a cheaper showdown.

  3. holy polarized range batman!

    You don't beat much except a bluff, but...

    here's my thinking - based on your line, this guy has to assume you have a showdown-worthy hand and not much more, so a bluff-shove has a pretty good chance of working.

    Would this line of thinking be common at online 100NL?

    His stats sure look like a setminer though...


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