Friday, October 15, 2010

What would you do? #196 - Flopped trips check raised on the turn

Still running terrabad, though I'm playing FAR better.  Results don't show it, of course.  I keep running into suckouts, variance, etc.  Still down 10+ buy-ins in expected value...

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $124.60
UTG+1: $77.90
MP1: $119.50
MP2: $135.50
CO: $139.25 - 11/8 / 2.4%3bet / 22% steal / 2.3 AF
BTN: $122.00
SB: $156.20 - 16/9/2.3%3bet / 25% steal / 1.9 AF
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Qd
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, CO raises to $9, 1 fold, SB calls $8.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($28.00) 9c Qh Qc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
I fully expect CO to lead here, ready to c/r him.  Fail!

Turn: ($28.00) 5c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, CO calls $25, SB raises to $128, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

I lead out here to charge for the 4th club; when I get check / raised all in, I'm in a quandry...  I have to be beat, right?

Click to see results

Hero folds, CO raises to $130.25 all in, SB calls $2.25

River: ($313.50) 5h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $313.50
CO shows Kc Ac (a flush, Ace high)
SB shows 4c 3c (a flush, Queen high)
CO wins $310.50
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. See you shoulda called.. woulda won your biggest pot ever online.. Over 400 bucks! 10 outs! GOOOOOOO! HAHA!

  2. Before seeing the results, yes I think this is a fold. You still have CO to act.

  3. This is a good one...

    I think CO has either an underpair to the Queens, or the A of clubs pretty often here (maybe AcKx). I don't think he has a nut flush draw often (though he does in fact here) given that he checked the flop after 3betting small preflop.

    As for the SB, I think we can conclude he doesn't have a boat already. He'd never raise that much with a boat. So it is either trips, or a vulnerable flush (not nut). You crush his trips, but could get getting freerolled if he has AcQs. Then again, that is only one hand. Against a flush, you have 10 possible outs, but more likely 8ish when you account for him and the CO. Against just him, that would be a close decision, and you could go either way.

    Given that you should have the CO beat pretty often, and it would be pretty close against the SB, I think you need to go with it. Turns out you made a really good fold here, but woulda binked a monster pot. I do think this is a pretty close decision, however.

    For what it is worth, I would have gone with it based on what I said above, and that winning a 375bb pot feels so much better than losing 125BB hurts.

  4. I don't think the check on the flop is necessarily bad but the bet on the turn I don't like.

    On the flop you have a strong but vulnerable hand and you should bet for value and protection.

    If you think you can go for a check raise that's an option but based on the few stats you posted, your opponents don't seem to be the type that really get out of line.

    If SB is the type of person that will try and steal in spots like this then checking behind could indicate he has some equity and it's worth seeing a free card.

    Could be a flush draw, could be hoping to make a full house, could even be a made full house.

    When I go for a check raise on a coordinated board and it just checks around I'm more likely to try and keep the pot small if I don't improve on the turn or river.

  5. Given the results, I'd be facing a $100+ call without my $25 lead regardless. I have to assume CO is opening the action on the turn with his nut flush. I also have to believe that SB is shoving all bets, presenting me with the same problem, yet saving me the $25. Not a bad thought, though, leaving the pot small. However, don't you want to protect from a 4th club falling? It seems to me that checking a 2nd time is a bad move; I have such a strong hand that I'm afraid to bet...

  6. "However, don't you want to protect from a 4th club falling?"

    I'd want to protect a 3rd club as well as an 8, 9, T, J or K. from falling on the flop.

    There are just too many draws on this flop to get tricky. Especially out of position against 2 players.

    On the flop you're way ahead of of CO's 3betting range.

    SB's stats don't indicate a maniac but I take it you had some sort of read on him that he'll call 3 bets wide at least in position.

    You're still way ahead of his range though.

    On the flop you're only behind Q9 and 99.

    On the turn flush draws hit and you also have to worry about 55. There are a lot more hands that you're way behind to.

    The plan to check/raise the flop might have been a good one depending on the player. One hand history doesn't tell me much. You're way ahead of both their ranges but still very vulnerable. You should do what you think will get the most money in the pot.

    But on the turn things change and if you didn't get your check raise on the flop then I think you have to play pot control. It may not work and you might have to fold to a bet/raise.

    In a previous hand you posted I think I advocated trying a check raise but if I remember correctly the player seemed to be a lot crazier.

    That stats I look at before deciding whether to bet or go for a check raise are ag% flop (not af) and bet vs missed cbet flop.

    I would lead this flop most of the time because the image I usually have doesn't get much respect. Plus, most people don't give too much credit to donk bets and in a 3 way pot with what you consider to be an aggressive player in position it's possible you might be able to 3 or 4 bet the flop.

  7. Decided to run some numbers to back up what I was saying...

    On the flop there's $28 in the pot.

    If you chose to lead for around 90% of pot on the flop (your $25 turn bet) a couple different things could happen.

    Both players call, pot now $103 on the turn.

    You can check and if CO fire's 1/2 pot ($50) and SB calls ($50) pot now $203. You're getting 5:1 pot odds on a call and you have 3:1 odds to outdraw a flush. With only 40% behind you might as well push because you'll have good odds on the river against bluffing ranges to call.

    Even if you think you might be up against a full house your odds of improving are 7:1 and you have to factor in some wiggle room that you're not up against a full house.

    We don't know their exact hands though...

    CO 3 bet your UTG raise and seems pretty tight. So a good range for him would to continue on the flop woud be KK+,JJ,TT,AcJc+,AcQo+

    SB we think has a wider range so we put him on suited flush draws, flush and straight draws, straight draws, weaker Queens.

    On the flop you have 70% (7:5) equity against their ranges and should be happy to get it all in.

    On the turn, even after narrowing ranges based on their calls, you're still better than 50% equity against their range including full houses, made flushes, flush draws, over pairs and getting good odds to call.

    The other scenario is that you bet the flop, get raised by someone raising with a range of overpairs, made full houses, straight flush draws, flush draws, straight draws and you still over 50% against that range and there's enough money in the pot now to get it all in.


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