Monday, October 4, 2010

What would you do? #191 - 3 flush flop + turned Ace facing big river bet with QQ

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

BTN: $109.95
SB: $100.50
BB: $159.65
UTG: $194.00
UTG+1: $101.50
Hero (MP1): $145.25 - 19/15 / 54% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 10.5 AF / 190 hands (at this table, which both villains have developed their hand histories on me) - BIG winning reg at the stakes
MP2: $136.15 - 39/6 / 50% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.2 AF / 70 hands - *TERRIBLE PLAYER*
CO: $139.25 - 13/11 / 30% steal / 7.2% 3bet / 2.6 AF / 229 hands

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Qc Qd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($13.00) Jd 7d 6d (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 calls $9, CO calls $9, SB folds

Turn: ($40.00) Ah (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $28, Hero calls $28, MP2 calls $28
I likely should be folding here.  I just don't have the fortitude to lay this down.  I also feel like I have the best diamond in the bunch, but how often am I getting paid on it?  With MP2 calling behind, I am seriously questioning my diamond draw, though.

River: ($124.00) 3s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $41, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero folds, MP2 calls $41
I'm pretty sure - at a minimum, one of them has an Ace.  I allowed myself to get value towned for $28.  I'm not throwing the baby out with the bath water, as they say :-).

Final Pot: $206.00
MP2 mucks Ac 5d
CO shows 7c 6c (two pair, Sevens and Sixes)
CO wins $203.00
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. against a 13/11 guy and another guy in the hand, I would have had to fold on Turn. I wouldn't have liked it. On the river, I think you have to give it up.

  2. I say fold. In a multiway pot, esp. with a terrible player in there, CO is much more likely to be betting for value than bluff.

  3. Unless you think the fish will call the river super light I think it is actually a turn fold. I guess in this case he would likely call on a 4 flush board but I don't think drawing to 11 outs on the river in a 3 way pot can be particularly +EV.

  4. Try mine now...I had been trying to feed to consolidate with a P5 blog I was trying to use. Should be fixed now but let me know if that is not the case.

  5. +1 for check-folding the turn. Too many hands which beat us and not getting value out of any hands we beat. However, the price on the river on a call is more than 4:1. Does villain have 10d-J, JxQx, JxKd or some random hand like 10x10d, 9x9d enough to justify a call? Possibly not, but it's important to committ to a decision on the turn either way. A classic spot where if we call the turn, we should call the river.

  6. You don't have that many hands against the reg but when he called I would have looked at his Call Open stat before the flop even came to get an idea of his range. Paying attention to what other hands he'll call a MP raise and call in position would help too.

    I'd also take a look at his bet vs missed cbet stats.

    Depending on my assessment on the reg, what the SB's check means and my own image, this might be a good time to try and check raise the flop.

    Unless SB was getting tricky he probably has a hand he'll fold. Against MP2 and CO your hand has enough equity against their ranges that I wouldn't feel too bad about getting it all in on the flop.

    On this board a check raise could fold out better hands that a cbet wouldn't.

    If the flop just checks around you can play the hand to get to a cheap show down.

    If you cbet or check/raise the flop and you aren't going to fire on the turn I think you have to just check/fold.

  7. Do you really think you have the best diamond redraw? Really? With two callers? Wow. That kind of thinking is going to cost you money right? I think if a diamond hits the river you end up losing a lot more than the 28$ you burned. At least potentially and this is why you probably want to stay away from situations like this, right?


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