Thursday, October 21, 2010

What would you do? #199 - Pocket Aces facing strong action

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

SB: $132.95 - 13 / 10 / 4.1% 3bet / 19% steal / 3.4AF @ 896 hands
BB: $100.00
UTG: $82.05
UTG+1: $70.10
UTG+2: $194.75
Hero (MP1): $100.50
MP2: $131.45
CO: $111.90
BTN: $108.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Ac As
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.00) 8d Kc 2h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.00) 3h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $22, Hero calls $13
Baluga Theorem?

River: ($58.00) Qs (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Simple read; do you make the call here?

Click to see results

Hero calls $45
I'm going through a spell where I just can't get my big hands to stick.  It's a bad state to be in; I never know whether I'm folding the best hand because I'm just being run over, or they're actually out-flopping me.  As is, it seems as though every time I make the hero call, I'm shown the nuts, so WTF?!?!?!?

Final Pot: $148.00
SB shows 2c 2s (three of a kind, Twos)
Hero mucks Ac As
SB wins $145.00
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. yeah, a little baluga action here.

    i like your call on the turn. He can easily have a K hear, or a pair and flush draw, or even just a bluff with a raise that small. I actually don't put him on a set here since he cannot get stacks in with that raise size.

    However, my read changes dramatically when he bets that size on the river. I think that is clearly for value, so he either rivered 2 pair or had the set.

    Kinda funny how he bet $22 on the turn with 22 in his hand. People do shit like this more often than you might think...

  2. tough one for sure. No draws at all on flop, and most players don't checkraise one pair on the turn. Smells like a set to be sure, esp. from a 13/10 cold-caller.

    Once you call a turn checkraise, river screams pure value. I think all you beat here is AK, and his 4.1 3bet% tells me that he would have 3bet AK.

    You got Baluga'ed

  3. @Anonymous -

    Yup. *Exactly* why I posted this hand. The raise size is exactly why I called the turn raise & river bet. I didn't put him on a set given the raise sizing, either. I was fairly certain that he did not want to get stacks in.

  4. You say this:
    13 / 10 / 4.1% 3bet / 19% steal / 3.4AF @ 896 hands

    Is there any way to know if they have information like that on you? If so, what are the implications. (I don't mean on this specific hand, I mean in general.)

  5. I just have to assume that if a guy is sitting down & playing 1k hands or more, he has to have some kind of stat tracker on me. Truly, though, there is no way of determining whether he is indeed tracking my tendencies. For all I know, he could be note-taking on me, as in this hand "Overplays AA." :-).

  6. Against tight players I'm starting to learn that having a cbet called on a dry board and then being check raised on a blank turn is always a flopped set as much as I try and convince myself it isn't.


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