Friday, October 8, 2010

What would you do? #195 - Missed value?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $118.85
UTG+2: $95.05
MP1: $190.35
MP2: $112.70 - 21/14 / 0% steal / 11.1% 3bet / 4.0 AF / 100 cbet flop / 28 hands
CO: $91.50
BTN: $35.00
SB: $55.15
Hero (BB): $196.15
UTG: $51.95

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with As Ks
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) Qs 8c Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
I don't think he has two pair; he'd lead here.

Turn: ($22.50) 8d (2 players)
Hero bets $13, MP2 calls $13
I'm hating this hand.  I don't know a ton about this player, and he's flatted my 3bet IP.  He's also called my turn bet on the bricked 8's.

River: ($48.50) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
I had planned to value bet the river, but the only draw (JT) got there.  Should I be leading the river here?  Obviously, given the results, the "perfect play" is to bet small, $10-15.  I think, at the time, I'm looking for a check / raise or a check / call, but don't get either.

Is it a mistake not to be leading?

Final Pot: $48.50
MP2 mucks Jh Qc
Hero shows As Ks (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Hero wins $46.10
(Rake: $2.40)


  1. out of position with one pair on a drawy board? Showdown sounds good to me (but you know me, LOL).

    I tend to discount many eights or JT in a three bet pot. Even if you believe his 11% would be true long term, that includes JTs but not JTo, and it includes exactly one hand with an 8 in it, 88.

  2. I bet flop. If not betting flop I think we can make a thinnish value bet on the river. Question is can he bluff shove the river...etc.

  3. holy NIT Batman!
    1 1/2 bet w/ top/top. The board just isn't that scary. You should look for 2 streets here. You can pick your two, since it probably doesn't make a difference, but you will never get 3 streets from worse.

    Basically, this guy looks like the kind of guy who is in love w/ 3betting light, and won't give many 3betters credit because that is on his mind. Look at that high 3bet %. You should value bet a size that looks bluffy. By the turn, he has clearly defined his hand as a bluff catcher. If he had a big hand, he would have needed to raise the flop or the turn, and there just isn't much in the way of draws, as you mentioned. Charge him to catch your "bluff".

  4. I did not see it mentioned but even over the small sample he has c bet 100%. He would have c bet JT. When he just calls the turn, you can safely bet for value on the river and fold to a big raise.


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