Tuesday, September 28, 2010

What would you do? #188 - The overbet for value Part 1

Following on yesterday's post, I present a player (this is not lakofpoisonivey, FWIW) who seems to like to bluff catch, and *LOVES* to stick around.  Couple that with the fact that he had been running good (up until this point LOL) - he was on the top 50 winners leaderboard for a portion of yesterday. 

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $104.15
UTG: $104.50
UTG+1: $440.75 - This guy is an 18/11/3.3%3b standard reg who rarely folds to 3bet (33%).  He's a reg with whom I have a TON of history.
As I've been doing lately, I'm going through my player lists and cross referencing them to PTR.  Therefore, I have his lifetime history (which may or may not play into your decision):

$-9,618 @ 240K hands for a lifetime loss of -1.74PTBB/100
VPIP 16.8%/ PFR 10.46% / 3bet 2.94% / AF 1.48 / 4bet 11.82%

MP: $108.65
Hero (CO): $152.25 - Note that we're somewhat deep stacked.
BTN: $82.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 2h 8d 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Terrible check, though I was pretty certain it would induce a turn lead - (FAIL!)

Turn: ($22.50) 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17
Okay.  Here's what I know: He has enough history under his belt to know full well that if he himself hit a monster (set, trips, etc.), that he's not going to stack me without bet bet betting.  He has given me no inclination that he is interested in getting stacks in.  However, he seems very content to check / call down.  My check on the flop is suspect; to him, I have not given an indication that I want to get stacks in, either.  However, I *VERY* much do want stacks in - I, personally, have him on a range of JJ+ with KK being the best culprit. 

River: ($56.50) 6c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $124.75 all in
I sent this HH to Josh; he and I had a HUGE discussion over this hand.  He totally disagreed with this shove - the logic he used is that a pot sized bet is more likely to be called (say 90%+ of the time), more than a river 2.5x pot shove.  But here is the hand history, right up to my river action...

I'm going to switch it up for the first time ever!  I'm not going to publish the results.  I will put a post out tomorrow morning with the results and commentary.  I'm hoping that you will comment on a few things:
  • Is this a profitable line?
  • What kinds of hands do you expect him to show up with?
  • Would you have played this differently?


  1. I hate the flop check. If you are trying to play a big pot against JJ, TT, etc why are we checking? There is virtually no way he has KK here given the line.

    And I hate the river shove as well. If you have a note on a player that he loves curiosity calls then ok by all means shove. Otherwise I agree that pottish size bet is best.

  2. I have my summary with explanation all prepared for tomorrow. I want to respond so badly!

  3. once he checks turn, I think you have to adjust his range to flush draws and nothing being way more likely than an overpair. Why does JJ-KK check twice as an overpair?

    When he calls turn, I think FD is most likely (even though you have Ad), maybe KdQd?
    So the problem is that I can't see him calling much on this shove, OR a normal value bet.

  4. Agree, Matt. This is a got it or don't got it situation. He's either going to call because he has SD value, or he was on a draw all along, and will fold.

    The question is, all of those non-drawing, SD value hands: do I get folds when I do this (with what frequency) or calls (enough times to make this a profitable move)?


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