Monday, September 13, 2010

What would you do? #177 - A botched job

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $54.60
UTG+1: $105.45
UTG+2: $35.00
MP1: $116.85
MP2: $172.90 - 40/21 / 75% steal / 10% 3bet @ 49 hands
Hero (CO): $132.30
BTN: $128.55
SB: $207.95 - 14/11 / 45% steal / 2.3% 3bet / 2.0 AF / 1.3K hands (Textbook player)
BB: $120.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Jc Kc
4 folds, MP2 raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, SB calls $10, 1 fold, MP2 calls $7.50
I want to iso the donkey.  I don't have a problem 3betting here.  Unfortunately, SB comes along.

Flop: ($32.50) Jh 9s 5s (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15, MP2 folds
I lead the 2 spade flop...  seems like a reasonable flop to lead, particularly since I hit my "gin" card.  I'd love to take this sucker down right now; there's quite a few draws on the board...

Turn: ($62.50) 2c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
I'm terribly unhappy about SB's flatting 2 streets.  I definitely *DON'T* want to involve stacks here; SB is polarized to monsters / draws; I can afford peeling a free card while in position.

River: ($62.50) 8d (2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero calls $30
Now here's the problem: is a 14/11 /2.0AF *EVER* leading the river like this without wanting an expensive showdown?  Is this a profitable call?  I suppose my question is villain dependent... if I have the guy as bluff leading a lot of checked turns then it's clear that this is profitable.  However, for a textbook player such as this, in similar situations in the future, this needs to be a fold.

I just feel like he shows up with busted flush draws as often as the winning hand.  Also note that QT would have gotten there, but I don't feel like a 14/11 is defending with QT.

Thoughts?

Final Pot: $122.50
Hero mucks Jc Kc
SB shows Kh Kd (a pair of Kings)
SB wins $119.50
(Rake: $3.00)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 9/13/2010 08:00:00 AM
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4 comments:

  1. matt tagSeptember 13, 2010 at 8:55 AM

    I don't like villain's flat with KK preflop. Bleah.

    As for the river, I guess there are some HUD stats you can use to help make a decision- river Aggression, W$SD.

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  2. The Poker MeisterSeptember 13, 2010 at 9:35 AM

    SB's flat is solely for trapping purposes. I'm not so sure I'd flat here either, with a total MP2 LAG, but he's seen my isolate a TON and he also sees me steal a TON. He knows full well that I'm likely to fold a 4bet, as is MP2, whose range he's clearly ahead of... The hand worked out for him; I just question the call on the river.

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  3. AnonymousSeptember 13, 2010 at 12:18 PM

    I personally don't like the c-bet on the flop. SB has shown a ton of strength flatting a 3bet oop. I just don't think you get much of his range to fold. AK, AQ, and maybe 1010, 88-66, and all smaller non-set pp. The truth is, you don't want that range to fold, and your only going to be value-towning yourself against better hands. the MP2 players range is just so wide that you don't need to worry about it, yet at least.

    Effectively, once SB coldcalled the 3bet, your hand is a bluff. you managed to hit some show-down value against his range. I would have proceeded carefully.

    Anyway, not what you asked... As played, I call. I think he bluffs often enough, especially given that the pot is pretty big at this point. Your hand looks weak, so he could think you can be bluffed out with a value-ish sized bet.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Poker MeisterSeptember 13, 2010 at 1:25 PM

    Absolutely valid comment. I think flatting a 3bet OOP no less, is HUGELY strong. I cbet because SB lacks initiative (I'd expect him to lead this board given his holdings). I suppose this board isn't *SO* scary given that it was a 3bet pot (i.e. folding out QT and many spade combinations)... This was a poorly played hand of mine many many different ways...

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