Friday, September 17, 2010

What would you do? #181 - Where did I go wrong with TPGK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $146.25
MP2: $101.50
CO: $100.00 - 16/10 / 30% steal / 2.3% 3bet / 4.0AF / 67% cbet flop
BTN: $110.00
SB: $213.25
BB: $100.00
UTG: $198.65
UTG+1: $235.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Qs Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) 7c 8s Kh (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, CO calls $5, SB folds
Keep it cheap to get lesser hands calling me.

Turn: ($20.00) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $25, Hero calls $15
Should I be folding to a 2.5x raise?

River: ($70.00) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $67 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I think this is definitely a fold here.  Is the error on the turn?  I'm assuming he flopped a set.

Final Pot: $70.00
CO wins $67.00
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. A little Baluga theorem in action here. You should fold the turn.

  2. i am more inclined to him having T9s. when he turns a big draw, he decides to semi-bluff. and he gets there on the river... it seems to me that all his actions fit even better with T9s than 77 or 88.

    and if so, you played perfectly.

  3. It just feels so weak to fold this. Granted, if he shoves over, then I think it's an easier fold, but a 2.5x raise? WTF? That's so exploitable with all of my TPGK hands. I allow myself to easily be blown off my hands with a min raise.

  4. I don't think a 16/10 is getting too out of line here and I can't really find a hand that you are beating...I prob fold turn.

  5. You're right, it is exploitable. But the fact is nobody at those stakes are likely to catch on. You have to realize, they are raising hoping you have a K, and a decent one at that. You have fired 2 barrels and shown a lot of strength (reasonably so given your hand), so they raise to entice you to continue, setting up for stacks on the river.

    The only hands that someone like this raises you with might be 10s9s and the outside chance of 5s6s, which is just 2 combos you beat, but has a lot of equity. You so far behind/drawing dead against the rest of his range. He just isn't doing this with KQ, KJ, and wont' be playing K10 or lower.


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