Monday, September 20, 2010

What would you do? #182 - Turned trips facing committing raise

A little controversy for your Monday morning coffee:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $90.00 - 18/9 / 100% steal / inf AF / 11 hands
UTG: $88.75
UTG+1: $130.95
UTG+2: $162.00
MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $208.15
CO: $101.50 - 17/12 / 35% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 3.3 AF / 100% cbet flop / 173 hands; fairly decent player, so my notes say...
BTN: $79.00
SB: $107.60 - 14/5 / 13% steal / 1.8% 3bet / 1.7 AF / 55% cbet flop / 1k hands; typifies a semi-bad reg

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 7c 6c
3 folds, MP1 requests TIME, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12.00) 9d 5d 7s (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, CO calls $6, SB folds
Gutter + pair.  Not so bad for an SC flop.

Turn: ($30.00) 7h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $43, BB folds,  Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero says "set?", Hero folds

Either this guy has slow-played an overpair or he flopped a set.  Clearly, he likes his hand.  He wants to get all in with what he feels is the best hand.  I don't have a stack-worthy hand.  The only hands he's repping have me beat: 5's full and 9's full.  I don't believe 7x's are in his range, but if I add that in, he has me beat as far as that range: A7, 87s, 76s.  Even as I post this, in retrospect, I still am losing sleep over this fold.

Edit: A day or two later and I'm still thinking about this hand.  I realize that it looks incredibly fishy to lead the turn here.  His raise is very polarized to sets...  I just don't see him bluff raising here without the goods.  Perhaps he has 68o?  Doubtful.  I don't think he's a bad reg, so I doubt he's overplaying a pocket pair...  I also want to point out that leading the turn was a poorly thought out plan.  I should not have led the turn; I should have let him continue to bet.  Thoughts?

Final Pot: $56.00
CO wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)


  1. I'm ok with how you played it. I probably can't find a fold in the heat of the moment, but i do think you probably made a marginally better play than calling/raising.

  2. The only thing I keep going back to with this hand is calling down instead of leading the turn. I don't know what I was thinking here... Why in the world would I lead the turn regardless? I at least could have an option of raising the turn - if I raised the turn, I'm not getting away from the hand, though...

  3. but if you check it, it could get checked through. Now, if he has 98, 10 9, A9, or pair/str8 draws, or flush draws you loose value. Betting is correct, and it is close between a bet/fold, bet/call, bet/shove. Reads & stats become very relevant here.

  4. I don't have him on those types of combos... I have him on QQ+ or flopped sets. I have to imagine he's isoing with QQ+, which is why I folded. I don't envision him pressing a TPTK hand or worse. If anything, it would be a flat through the turn if I suddenly lead, essentially delay check raising the flop BB bet.


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