Monday, September 20, 2010

What would you do? #182 - Turned trips facing committing raise

A little controversy for your Monday morning coffee:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/926994
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $90.00 - 18/9 / 100% steal / inf AF / 11 hands
UTG: $88.75
UTG+1: $130.95
UTG+2: $162.00
MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $208.15
CO: $101.50 - 17/12 / 35% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 3.3 AF / 100% cbet flop / 173 hands; fairly decent player, so my notes say...
BTN: $79.00
SB: $107.60 - 14/5 / 13% steal / 1.8% 3bet / 1.7 AF / 55% cbet flop / 1k hands; typifies a semi-bad reg

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 7c 6c
3 folds, MP1 requests TIME, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12.00) 9d 5d 7s (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, CO calls $6, SB folds
Gutter + pair.  Not so bad for an SC flop.

Turn: ($30.00) 7h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $43, BB folds,  Hero ???


Click to see results


Hero says "set?", Hero folds

Either this guy has slow-played an overpair or he flopped a set.  Clearly, he likes his hand.  He wants to get all in with what he feels is the best hand.  I don't have a stack-worthy hand.  The only hands he's repping have me beat: 5's full and 9's full.  I don't believe 7x's are in his range, but if I add that in, he has me beat as far as that range: A7, 87s, 76s.  Even as I post this, in retrospect, I still am losing sleep over this fold.

Edit: A day or two later and I'm still thinking about this hand.  I realize that it looks incredibly fishy to lead the turn here.  His raise is very polarized to sets...  I just don't see him bluff raising here without the goods.  Perhaps he has 68o?  Doubtful.  I don't think he's a bad reg, so I doubt he's overplaying a pocket pair...  I also want to point out that leading the turn was a poorly thought out plan.  I should not have led the turn; I should have let him continue to bet.  Thoughts?

Final Pot: $56.00
CO wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)

4 comments:

  1. I'm ok with how you played it. I probably can't find a fold in the heat of the moment, but i do think you probably made a marginally better play than calling/raising.

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  2. The only thing I keep going back to with this hand is calling down instead of leading the turn. I don't know what I was thinking here... Why in the world would I lead the turn regardless? I at least could have an option of raising the turn - if I raised the turn, I'm not getting away from the hand, though...

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  3. but if you check it, it could get checked through. Now, if he has 98, 10 9, A9, or pair/str8 draws, or flush draws you loose value. Betting is correct, and it is close between a bet/fold, bet/call, bet/shove. Reads & stats become very relevant here.

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  4. I don't have him on those types of combos... I have him on QQ+ or flopped sets. I have to imagine he's isoing with QQ+, which is why I folded. I don't envision him pressing a TPTK hand or worse. If anything, it would be a flat through the turn if I suddenly lead, essentially delay check raising the flop BB bet.

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