Thursday, September 30, 2010

What would you do? #189 - Overbet for value opportunity?

Somewhat of a weak one today...  sorry.  :-)

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $122.40
MP2: $76.30 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 7, 3B: 2, AF: 3.3, Hands: 112
CO: $100.00
BTN: $52.20
SB: $147.25
BB: $346.75
UTG: $94.50
Hero (UTG+1): $100.00
UTG+2: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Jc Js
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3c Kh Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
Not really sure where he is with the hand; I don't want to bet if I feel as though he doesn't have a King.  However, I do want to bet if he does have the King.  I prefer to let him lead, though.  No dice.

Turn: ($7.50) Ks (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25, MP2 raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $18, MP2 calls $7.50
A pretty good sign that he min raises me...  At this point, I put him on trips - AK, KQ, [ugh...]KJ, etc.  Pretty good sign that he doesn't come over the top of my 3bet - he has a strong King that is likely to call any river bet.

River: ($43.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $79 all in, MP2 calls $55.30 all in
Given the above (i.e. he's not getting away from the hand), I go for max pain, with a "fishy" overbet to the pot.  If I bet pot, I miss $12 of value.  If I bet $55.30, it looks very strong.  If I just mash the All In button, it looks fishy.  Therefore, ship it.

Factoring into my decision was the idea that this guy does not have a full stack.  I doubt he's a solid player who is every laying down top trips on a non-threatening board.  

Final Pot: $154.10
MP2 mucks Kd Qd
Hero shows Jc Js (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
Hero wins $151.10
(Rake: $3.00)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 9/30/2010 08:00:00 AM
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4 comments:

  1. edgie212September 30, 2010 at 8:04 AM

    I agree with the play when the boat comes...even thought your stats show a slim volume, it's fairly obvious that he was attempting to trap with kings on a rainbow flop and saw no value in betting it.

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  2. AnonymousSeptember 30, 2010 at 8:33 AM

    good overbet, but i don't like the check on the flop (which leads to you being able overbet). On a flop like this, he pretty much is either calling a bet or folding his air which won't likely improve. He'll either have a K, 33, a str8 draw, an underpair, or A hi. You most likely won't get much if any value from the underpair or A hi no matter how you play it. So therefore you want to maximize value against other hands. I like the bet, check/raise, shove line here given the flop and his likely range. I probably change that and barrel 1/2 pot on the K, because he is going to be scared w/ a str8 draw and you won't get stacks in, but will likely squeeze out another bet on the turn, but will fold missed rivers. He will likely ship a K for value against you on the turn.

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  3. BrianSeptember 30, 2010 at 12:18 PM

    I agree with anon here. If this was a laggy opponent then by all means check this flop...but against a 12/7 I think you need to start building a pot on the flop. Though the way I have been running of late he has Quad Ks by the turn anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Poker MeisterSeptember 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM

    As far as the flop check, I've been running into a lot of situations where I'll cbet the flop & get folds while holding the effective nuts. I'm finding that I'm getting a bit more value (particularly while out of position) by letting my opponent "catch up." It also conceals the strength of my hand, whereby my opponent feels comfortable calling me down & looking me up with second pair or a smaller pocket pair. By his turn raise, though, it's a pretty good indication that he *LOVES* his hand.

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