Wednesday, September 29, 2010

What would you do? #188 - The overbet for value Part 2

To recap, here was the beginning of yesterday's post (edited for time :-) ):

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $104.15
UTG: $104.50
UTG+1: $440.75 - This guy is an 18/11/3.3%3b tight reg who rarely folds to 3bet (33%).  He's a reg with whom I have a TON of history.
As I've been doing lately, I'm going through my player lists and cross referencing them to PTR.  Therefore, I have his lifetime history (which may or may not play into your decision):

$-9,618 @ 240K hands for a lifetime loss of -1.74PTBB/100
VPIP 16.8%/ PFR 10.46% / 3bet 2.94% / AF 1.48 / 4bet 11.82%
MP: $108.65
Hero (CO): $152.25 - Note that we're somewhat deep stacked.
BTN: $82.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 2h 8d 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Terrible check, though I was pretty certain it would induce a turn lead - (FAIL!)

Turn: ($22.50) 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17
Okay.  Here's what I know: He has enough history under his belt to know full well that if he himself hit a monster (set, trips, etc.), that he's not going to stack me without bet bet betting.  He has given me no inclination that he is interested in getting stacks in.  However, he seems very content to check / call down.  My check on the flop is suspect; to him, I have not given an indication that I want to get stacks in, either.  However, I *VERY* much do want stacks in - I, personally, have him on a range of JJ+ with KK being the best culprit. 

River: ($56.50) 6c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $124.75 all in
I sent this HH to Josh; he and I had a HUGE discussion over this hand.  He totally disagreed with this shove - the logic he used is that a pot sized bet is more likely to be called (say 90%+ of the time), more than a river 2.5x pot shove.

Click to see results

UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 calls $124.75
My logic is that I'm rarely ever doing this, but two things are in my mind: first, I checked the flop which makes my hand more concealed (how many times are players checking the flop when they intend to get stacks in by the river?) and like the post yesterday, this player is content in looking me up.

My shove says one of two things: F* you, if you won't fold to my turn bet, you'll fold to me now (i.e. I have AK and I'm FORCING you to to fold), or I want value from a hand that I know beats your hand.  Hence a polarizing bet, which, where in my post from 2 days ago, Ringer bet of $30 which would have been the same had he bet $24, this bet is the same whether I bet $50 or $125.  Well, maybe not "the same..." $125 is a *BIT* more than $50, but you get the idea, nevertheless.

Honestly, I put him on KK from his action.  At worst, he's got an overpair which he refuses to lay down.  He's a .7 AF, so his check / call lines are consistent with his stats.

I'm 99% certain I'm ahead here - how do I get stacks in against a guy who will only check / call the whole way down?  Shove the river for 125BBs, of course!

Again, this is a very specific circumstance, but I think I'm going to take this line in the future against players like the guy I was talking about - lak - or this guy.  Calling stations should get punished for their curiosity.

Final Pot: $306.00
UTG+1 mucks 7s 8s - FAR FAR FAR lighter than I expected.  This actually kind of shocked me, making my AA shove a pretty thin bet; he could have easily wound up with trip 6's.  My image from this guy's perspective must be pretty bad, overall... (LOL)...

Hero shows Ac Ad (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $303.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Post analysis: Overall, I am *RARELY* seeing this type of move.  It is just so out-of-character for anyone to do this.  I figured, though, if he has KK, he'll call a shove as often as he'll call a pot sized bet.

1 comment:

  1. Wow...well nice shove I Obv this regular is not as solid as you thought. Though I do wonder if the effect would have been the same if you had bet the flop.

    I know you put him on KK but I can't imagine anyone not betting KK on the turn at a minimum. Frankly any overpair at least bets the turn IMO.

    In any event nice hand.


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