Wednesday, September 22, 2010

What would you do? #184 - Turned scare card to my KK

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/938270
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $109.95
Hero (SB): $147.80 - 20/16 / 69% steal / 5.3% 3bet / 1.0AF / 99 hands
BB: $123.15 - 30/7 / 0% steal / 3.7% 3bet / 1.5AF / 69 hands
UTG: $106.60
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $101.50
MP2: $106.00
CO: $102.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with Ks Kh
6 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
I put my stats up there as they're somewhat relevant... painting a picture of my steal %, etc.  The stats are how the BB sees me.

Flop: ($6.00) Jh 8d 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50
Standard cbet; what I would do whether I have a hand or am simply stealing.

Turn: ($15.00) Ah (2 players)
Hero bets $9, BB calls $9
I don't know whether I should continue here...  My hand is unimproved, and it's very easy for him to be floating most of his range, knowing that I usually cbet my steals.  I feel like the Ace is such a bad card.

River: ($33.00) Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $33, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
What do you think?

Final Pot: $33.00
BB wins $31.35
(Rake: $1.65)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 9/22/2010 08:00:00 AM
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9 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 22, 2010 at 8:38 AM

    I snap call. Who bets pot for value in today's game? Only huge donks who will give it back anyway. If it were a value bet, it would be more reasonably sized.

    ReplyDelete
  2. matt tagSeptember 22, 2010 at 8:59 AM

    that's a vomit-inducer. I love to flat Ax hands in the BB from SB thieves who I think are raising any 2.

    I don't think you can call a pot-sized bet hoping he's bluffing - AgF 1.5 doesn't look like a bluff.

    Too bad you didn't have KQ. My favorite thing in the world is barreling 2 streets and hitting the nuts on the river.

    ReplyDelete
  3. BrianSeptember 22, 2010 at 9:42 AM

    Boy that full pot bet on the river doesn't really seem like a value bet at all. But he might just be mashing buttons. Having said that I think JT, AT and I guess sets are certainly in his range (though admittedly this doesn't feel like a flopped set). I think the only thing we beat here is air; most likely a busted FD. I probably fold river as well. But I am a bit nitty in these spots.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Poker MeisterSeptember 22, 2010 at 1:00 PM

    This guy is not shy about 3betting - not that he's a spew monkey, but definitely not shy. I just wonder whether it was a value bet with a two pair combo - Ax, feeling like he puts me on AK and I'm not getting away from it.

    Clearly, he's polarized because I don't think he's betting a weak Ace like this...

    ReplyDelete
  5. BrianSeptember 22, 2010 at 1:18 PM

    He never has AK here BVB. But you are right he is completely polarized. He has 2 pr or an airball IMO. His bet sizing makes me oh-so curious but I prob fold anyway

    ReplyDelete
  6. The Poker MeisterSeptember 22, 2010 at 1:20 PM

    The more I think about this, the more I believe he turned his flopped TP into two pair by the river: JT. I believe this to be a correct fold.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Poker JSeptember 22, 2010 at 1:41 PM

    The question is what do you beat? Only thin you beat is QQ. I do not like calling pot river bets when I can only beat a bluff. I think he could have a lot of suited broadways in his range and lots of them made 2 pairs and straights on the river.

    ReplyDelete
  8. HappyPixelSeptember 22, 2010 at 1:56 PM

    Often you see fish (even passive fish) bluffing pot w/ busted draws, but on this board there aren't that many draws that are total air by the river.

    If he has something like T9/KJdd etc he is probs either checking behind or betting smaller so I think this is a fold as played.

    But I prefer betting about $12-15 on river to get value from his one-pair hands like T9/QJ/87 etc. It also serves as a kind of blocking bet. I'm not that worried about the turn Ace given how huge his range is for peeling this flop.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousSeptember 22, 2010 at 2:09 PM

    Let me clarify (first commenter).

    He is definitely polarized here. His value bet range here is definitely 2 pair or better (no way he pots w/ 1 pair, even AK), and the two pair is most likely J10 or A10. AJ he raises at some point (pre, flop, turn). J8, J5, 85 also raise the flop or turn because the board becomes much more drawish and you are repping you like your hand. Sets and straights just aren't that likely. So I think we can agree his value range is relatively small.

    So his bluff range is missed draws, complete air, and hands he decided to turn into bluffs. You beat missed draws and complete air, and unless he decided to turn an Ace into a bluff (unlikely) you have that beat too.

    The real key part to me is: after you barrel flop and turn, what does he expect you to call with on a river that probably doesn't change anything given that you checked it? He wouldn't value bet this much because he doesn't think you have a good enough hand to call a big bet. Thus, he is probably bluffing.

    ReplyDelete

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