Thursday, September 23, 2010

What would you do? #185 - Hating life

I included positional stats (which, admittedly, I don't look at very often...) because I think it's relevant here:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/938275
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): $100.00
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $54.50
CO: $100.00 - 14/11 / 24% steal / 6.1% 3bet / 2.9AF (4.0 Flop AF / 41%, 1.8 Turn AF /23%, 3.0 River AF / 16%)/ 984 hands
BTN: $100.00
SB: $135.65
BB: $110.25
UTG: $27.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Qd Qc
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO raises to $10.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) Jc 6s Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($44.50) 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

River: ($92.50) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $54.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
What the hell does he have here?  WTF?!?!?!? In retrospect, I called my way into making this a profitable call, (3:1) but am I ever going to be good here?  I bail before losing a stack, which, while not good, is better than losing a stack.


I suck in this hand.  The reason I'm calling all the way, though, is his 6.1% 3bet.  Am I making a mistake folding?

Final Pot: $92.50
CO wins $89.50
(Rake: $3.00)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 9/23/2010 08:00:00 AM
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9 comments:

  1. matt tagSeptember 23, 2010 at 8:41 AM

    he had to have spiked a jack, didn't he? Can you take the line bet/bet/shove on a paired broadway board without trips? Even pocket aces would pot control the turn or river in position.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Poker MeisterSeptember 23, 2010 at 9:23 AM

    What Jacks are in a 14/11's 6.1% 3bet range? AJ is the obvious, but is there a ton to be scared of on this board? The contrary is true; AA,KK does not have a ton to be scared of on this board. It just feels so much like AA hoping that I have KK which I can't lay down. I suck.

    ReplyDelete
  3. GoldGaneshSeptember 23, 2010 at 10:16 AM

    it's so thin here. since he 3bet you and you are early, I really think folding is possibly best pf or on flop. I know it sounds nitty, but AK, QQ, JJ is really marginal in early position when you get 3bet by a decent player. I mean if he's capable of folding to a 4b so you don't have to take the check/call guessing game, I much rather 4bet in this spot and fold to a ship. Hope that helps

    ReplyDelete
  4. matt tagSeptember 23, 2010 at 10:23 AM

    AJ and JJ are the only jacks in a 6% 3betting range, assuming that's all a value range.

    you don't suck, you just don't have many great options with this board. You either have to fold an overpair on a dry board (always sucks), turn your hand into a bluff and shove (repping a jack, and hoping to God he doesn't have one), or hope to God he's bluffing or has 88-TT. Because all you're beating right now is 88-TT and bluffs.

    ReplyDelete
  5. BrianSeptember 23, 2010 at 10:37 AM

    I comfortably fold turn to 14/11 (though 3 bet is high) on the turn.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The Poker MeisterSeptember 23, 2010 at 10:42 AM

    @Gold - Agreed. I think I have many problems with this hand; mainly I don't fold / 4bet to the PF to the 3bet. I think I should have 4bet to ~$25, which, overall, would have cost me a lot less.

    I'm slowly (my skull is a bit thick) realizing that is *NOT* good to call OOP to a 3bet. It's either a 4bet or fold. QQ just looks so pretty...

    ReplyDelete
  7. matt tagSeptember 23, 2010 at 10:48 AM

    If you prefer the 4 bet or fold game - your decision point with QQ has to be right now - it's either good enough to get all in (based on stats/reads) or it isn't.

    You can NOT 4 bet a hand as good as QQ and then fold to a shove. This is equivalent to lighting money on fire, then tossing the lit-on-fire money onto a pile of more of your money. Save hands like 92o for 4bet-folding.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Poker JSeptember 23, 2010 at 12:24 PM

    wow, lots of comments here. HAve QQ on J high board or TT on a 99 high board is always hard to play.

    Would you ever stack off if the board was 5 high and rainbow here?

    There is absolutly nothing wrong with 4 bet folding here.

    Also, you cant really determine the villians range here because you do not know the heros stats. If hero is 25/22 and 20% early raise, then villians 3 bet could be as low as 99+ and QJs+. If the hero is 7/6 with a 2 % early raise, villian has to have AA here.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The Poker MeisterSeptember 23, 2010 at 12:45 PM

    @Poker J - I think you give too much credit... I have my doubts that a player is looking at positional stats, much less knows how to process them. FWIW, though, I'm raising EP about 10% or less with about a 22/17 style of play. Clearly, my weights are much heavier towards late position.

    ReplyDelete

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