Wednesday, December 22, 2010

What would you do? #212 - Flopped second nut flush facing river raise

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

MP1: $76.55 - 17/10 / 3.6%3bet / 45% steal / 2.8AF  @ 97 hands
MP2: $50.00
CO: $54.00
BTN: $36.10
Hero (SB): $69.00
BB: $50.75
UTG: $67.10
UTG+1: $24.25
UTG+2: $25.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Kc 9c
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Call with a pump or dump hand.  Easy to get away from, but this player has been fairly active in very recent hands.  Also, we're a little deep, so I feel comfortable with the speculative call.

Flop: ($4.50) Tc Qc 6c (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $2, Hero calls $2, BB folds
Can you say "Yahtzee?"

Turn: ($8.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
Bummer.  He missed the flop entirely.  Suckage.

River: ($8.50) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, MP1 raises to $20.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Okay.  Ace completes quite a few hands - mainly AK.  I lead, expecting a call behind to get a little value on my hand and am greeted with a nice raise.  What do you make of it?

Click to see results

I waffled back & forth between a call or a shove. He seems to be *VERY* interested in this Ace. Given the raise, I can put him on a few hands that beat me, but nothing likely - AcKc, AcQc are obviously not possible. All other AcXc hands are, though, but again, none seem too likely. Sets are clearly possible - particularly rivered set of Aces. However, isn't a set reduced to bluff catcher at this point? Then, I considered the line I took - I have a very concealed flopped flush, and he's not likely to believe that I waited until the river to get value out of it. Therefore I shove and am insta-called by the nut straight :-). GG sir!
Hero raises to $65.50 all in, MP1 calls $45.25

Final Pot: $139.50
MP1 mucks Kh Jc
Hero shows Kc 9c (a flush, King high)
Hero wins $136.50
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. I actually thought it was a slow played set; but not for even one second did I consider anything but shoving here.

    Nice Hand.

    This game is easy.

  2. I'm a nit and would have called the river, not shoved. Clearly not optimal, because as I went through the action, I couldn't put him on AcXc.

    Not sure I would have called Kc9c out of position vs. a 10% range - seems like too many ways to kicker-own yourself.

  3. Meister - Don't like the pre-flop flat, but you're deep-stacked and yada yada yada I know the argument. The problem is there are a lot of reverse-implied odds with this hand-spot: kicker-trouble, not drawing to nut flush and OOP. Most likely you're hand won't be disguised and you are far less likely to make straights and combo-draws. I also don't think a competent player, like a 17/10, is going to make that many mistakes against you to make this profitable. That being said, apparantly competent $50 NL players are still bad enough where they cannot bet-fold/raise-fold rivers. Credit: Hoyazo for continuously commenting on major mistakes made by lower stakes players.

    Matt Tag - You do realize that villain's opening range is not 10% here right? On average he is raising with 10% of all hands he is dealt. However, this may very well be 5% from UTG/SB/BB and 15-20% from the CO and button. You should assume that an opponent's opening range is tightest from UTG/UTG+1 and they open widest from the Button and Cutoff. Think of it as a gradual increase where UTG is the lowest and button is the highest. Plus if you look at his ATS% = 45, you should not that this player is actively attempting to steal blinds from steal positions, suggesting that his range is much wider on the Button, CO and SB.

    For some opponents they may be tighter out of the blinds where others may have identical opening ranges for UTG and SB/BB. It's very critical that you understand this concept to correctly apply ranges. I don't know if you use a HUD or HEM, but there is an excellent article within HEM about this and how it relates to 3-betting. I will try and locate it.

  4. My favorite part of your reasoning here: "Then, I considered the line I took - I have a very concealed flopped flush, and he's not likely to believe that I waited until the river to get value out of it. Therefore I shove and am insta-called by the nut straight :-)."

    I like seeing you explicitly considering the line you took when you evaluate your play here. In general, I can totally dig on the guy maybe going for the check-raise against you on the turn with a flopped nut flush, but no way am I assuming he checked behind on the turn with the flopped nut flush. If he's that bad, he's just going to have gotten you here.

    Kudos to you for taking into account your line in the hand. He cannot possibly put you on a flush here given the way you played it (I like your play on every street btw), so he may bet this river with a whole bunch of hands, every one of which you beat.

    And @joshua -- yes, $50 nl players online in general are not multi-level thinkers by a long shot. I think Meister consistently does solid analysis about his play and I am sure it helps his game noticeably, but he is doubtless in the significant minority among players at this level in doing so.

  5. raise the flop with open ended straight flush draw.


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