Thursday, December 23, 2010

What would you do? #213 - WTF?

Lately, I've felt like I'm on the road to Missing Floppsville. Have you ever been there? It seems that I have totally decent pieces of the flop, as evidenced below, but nowhere near strong enough to call a stack off. I'm getting raised constantly when my TPTK should be good, and I'm getting smacked by the variance tree. WTF?

Anyway, what do you think about the hand below?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $50.00 - 18/13 / 4.3% 3bet / 33% steal / 1.3AF @ 485 hands
Hero (MP1): $83.40
MP2: $34.25
CO: $20.95
BTN: $39.15
SB: $62.65
BB: $50.00
UTG: $68.30 - 63/38 / 3.0 AF / 8 hands
UTG+1: $18.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with As Ah
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $3, UTG+1 calls $3, UTG+2 calls $3

Flop: ($14.75) Qd 4c 8c (4 players)
UTG bets $7, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $46.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds, UTG folds

Final Pot: $28.75
UTG+2 wins $27.35
(Rake: $1.40)


  1. that's a tough fold. He is definitley showing strength; but does it have to be a set? Could he be just isolating the bad guy with AQ?

    Sometimes it is just better to let it go so I have no probelm with the fold.

  2. Have I ever been there? I'm the mayor of Missing Flopsville - you can check my Foursquare for proof.

    I think this is a good fold, BTW. I tight player has just shoved into a preflop raiser (you) and a fish. He's got it

  3. yes, I do know what you mean. GF

  4. As played, I think UTG+2 is set-mining here almost always. Would he limp call 7x with AQ? I doubt it. Maybe if it's suited, in which case you can mix in some Pair+Flush draws into his range like AcQc,KcQc,10cJc,9c10c. Add those to the more likely set-mines and I don't think you're doing so well against that range.

  5. imo yes he has set most of the times, he is way to pasiv to shove pure draws here, gf imo

  6. What Wonka said. You're not behind as much as these commenters seem to think, but in cash sometimes there is just no reason to push it with just one pair. I lean towards folding in this spot as well.

  7. fwiw, my read is that UTG has a weak top pair hand, like JQo and that the all-in raiser has some kind of draw. Possibly two-pair in some situations.

    Preflop, you're the only one in the hand who is showing strength. Through this lens, my opinion is that someone at these stakes with a set would be more willing to check-raise you after you deliver a c-bet.


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