Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
CO: $17.50
BTN: $102.50
Hero (SB): $54.00
BB: $68.60
UTG: $34.00
UTG+1: $51.95 - 19 / 15 / 38% steal / 5.7% 3bet / 4.8 aggression factor / 2K hands
MP1: $65.05
MP2: $145.40 - 14 / 10 / 28% steal / 2.6% 3bet / 2.5 aggression factor / 50% cbet flop / 928 hands
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with As Kc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $5.25, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $5, 2 folds
Quite a bit of history on both players, from the stats. Here are my thoughts on this:
I wonder whether I should be folding this outright. A case could be made that this guy does not 3bet all that often (2.6%), which gives him a pretty well-defined range; perhaps QQ+, AK.
The second thought I have is that I believe I lose a lot of the value of AK by flatting and not 4 betting to $15. If I 4bet to $15, I likely fold out AK, but get QQ to flat, and KK+ to overshove.
The third thought is to flat, out of position, like I did. I can pray for the Ace or King, but I don't even know if that's good, given MP2's range here. More to the point, even if I do hit my Ace or King, and it is good, what is the chance that I'm getting value out of it?
I think this mistake hand cost me $5, which is a small price to pay, but a price nevertheless. I think, had I chosen option 2, it could have cost me a whole lot more. However, option 1, folding outright, is probably the best choice here.
Thoughts?
Flop: ($12.50) 8h 3h 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7.25, Hero folds
Final Pot: $12.50
MP2 wins $11.90
(Rake: $0.60)
As a side note, one commenter pointed out that I am placing too much priority on stats, particularly given datapoint sizes. I have really taken this comment to heart; definitely learned from it - as I am indeed placing less stress on smaller sample sizes. I have definitely been focused on that point. It is much appreciated, Anonymous, whoever you are!
2024: Another Year of Concerts
1 day ago
Agreed that it's easy to place too large an emphasis on a small sample size, but it's the only data we have!
ReplyDeleteI like the fold on this hand - I like to have some reason to think there's a chance the three bettor is making a move before 4 betting with AK. I have no evidence of that here.
I was consdering if I might be more inclined to call with AKs in the extra hope of flopping a monster draw, but many monster draws end up being coin flips vs. his super tight range here, so I'm not sure that's the right either.
You're welcome. I have been guilty of the same thing, so that's why mentioned it.
ReplyDeletebtw, i'll stay anon, thank you.
That's always a problem when you are dealing with a small sample size, but 928 hands from MP2 definitely indicates that he treads the boards somewhat frequently. I would probably quickly scan OPR if I could before flatting. The reraise shows strength, but I'd probably consider check-calling if I caught an ace or a king here. Since you didn't, an easy fold.
ReplyDelete