The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
MP2: $17.50
CO: $102.50
Hero (BTN): $50.00 - My steal % to him is ~50%
SB: $68.10 - 11 / 9 / 28% steal / 2.7% 3bet / 6.2 aggression factor / 52% cbet / 511 hands
BB: $34.00
UTG: $50.45
UTG+1: $65.05
MP1: $152.05
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 8d 9c
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($3.50) 5s 3d Ts (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Fear a check / raise given his AF. He has done this in the past in the few spots where I'm caught stealing. Additionally, there is not much to rep on this board.
Turn: ($3.50) 7s (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
Turned OESD. My hand will be fairly well concealed if it hits. Note that there's a 3flush on the board.
River: ($8.50) 8s (2 players)
SB bets $5.50, Hero ???
I river a pair. What now? Does your play change if the 8s is the Js or the 6s (completing the straight draw but putting a 4 flush as well? Does your play change if the river is a non-spade 8?
Click to see results
Hero raises to $15, SB folds
I think a raise here folds out most TT hands, given the 4 flush. I also think that the raise folds almost all of the flush hands, excluding Jacks+ (probably). I can represent a rivered 4 flush myself, given that I raised PF (steal or otherwise, it is credible that I raised with an Ax hand, which may very well be an As).
Ultimately, I want to fold out the full range of his holdings, accepting the fate that he may very well have the nut flush or close to it. I think he shows up with a premium spade much less often than he shows up with better pairs, lesser spades or hands that my rivered 8's don't beat. I don't want to take the risk that he has a weak spade, so I push him off of the pot.
Finally, I have played this hand so passively (check -> call) that I can easily have a monster, etc.
Final Pot: $19.50
Hero wins $18.55
(Rake: $0.95)
I think a raise here folds out most TT hands, given the 4 flush. I also think that the raise folds almost all of the flush hands, excluding Jacks+ (probably). I can represent a rivered 4 flush myself, given that I raised PF (steal or otherwise, it is credible that I raised with an Ax hand, which may very well be an As).
Ultimately, I want to fold out the full range of his holdings, accepting the fate that he may very well have the nut flush or close to it. I think he shows up with a premium spade much less often than he shows up with better pairs, lesser spades or hands that my rivered 8's don't beat. I don't want to take the risk that he has a weak spade, so I push him off of the pot.
Finally, I have played this hand so passively (check -> call) that I can easily have a monster, etc.
Final Pot: $19.50
Hero wins $18.55
(Rake: $0.95)
Nice bluff-raise. You sniffed out the fact that the villain is a nit, but yet very aggro which he validated by barreling turn and river. You're right that if you c-bet the flop, villain was probably going to check-raise you given the way the hand played-out.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the villain will rarely have the/a hand needed to call your river raise. It looks like he got caught in middle-strength territory which could have been a set, A-10s, 99 or JJ. It's hard to put the villain on a made flush on the turn which became counterfeited by the river, since there almost no suited connectors that an 11/9 would be defending from the SB, with the exception of QJs. And even then, I think villain would be able to find a fold with the Q-high flush with 4 spades on deck.
Moreover, his bet felt very much like a blocker bet.
ReplyDelete