Friday, July 23, 2010

What would you do? #146 - Holding TPTK vs. a nit

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

MP2: $60.95 - 11/7 / 28% steal / 1.6% 3bet / 1.3 aggression factor / 154 hands
CO: $18.75
BTN: $54.55
SB: $35.50
BB: $105.40
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $52.95
Hero (MP1): $97.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Ah Kh
2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $1.75, MP2 calls $1.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 5d Ad 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP2 calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) 3h (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP2 calls $5

River: ($20.25) Qh (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero checks, MP2 bets $11, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero folds
I remember this hand distinctly; as soon as I saw the Queen on the turn, I knew (without even having him bet) exactly what he had. You ever get those feelings? I put him on a very tight range here:

When MP2 calls the flop bet, I put him on one of 3 hands: AQ, 55 and 33. I highly doubt he has a set here, but I feel very strongly that he shows up with a turned two pair. I don't think he's ever calling the flop with a lesser Ace... more so, he's not betting the turn with a lesser Ace. I think he sucked out on the turn.

Final Pot: $20.25
MP2 wins $19.25
(Rake: $1.00)


  1. can you be more afraid of the monsters under the bed? you've got the nut pair with the nut kicker. don't play like a pussy.

  2. it happened on the river, not tur

  3. I check the river and let him bluff busted diamonds. If the bet is not big (it wasn't), I call.

  4. I'm nearly positive he is not drawing to the flush or straight draws. He's an 11/7 calling an MP1 raise in the MP2 spot. I'm pretty certain his range for his action (calling 2 streets) is AK, AQ. I'm checking because I'm sure he's only betting if he rivered top two. If the Queen doesn't show up on the river, I'm definitely value betting about $12 on the river.

  5. I think this is a c/c or a b/f. You are good here enough to call getting 2 to 1. When you check you open your self up to some bluffs or weaker AJ, AT betting. When you bet and he raises, it is a better fold.

  6. Odds-wise I can make this call and be good a good percentage of the time. But odds-wise, that is vs. an average opponent. I think I'm not good 2 out of 3 times vs. an 11/7 who has a 1.3 AF - ESPECIALLY given the prior action. I don't think he's ever calling AJ in the MP2 vs. an MP1 raise. The very bottom of his range is AQ. He's calling all pocket pairs, and very few XdYd cards... I definitely feel like villain is calling down to look me up with his AQ. Perhaps he shows up with AK and we chop, but this was just weird action for a non-AK non-set holding 11/7. This is exactly the kind of action I expect from a weak tight player who has TPGK... and realizes that he rivered top two.

    I have another hand coming up in the next few days which will probably spawn controversy like this one. I'll point it out when I get there. It's basically me holding AA vs. a Q high flop where I've 4 bet and he flats. I fold his lead on the flop.

  7. imo the worst thing you can do here is c/c, given that he's probably not bluffing or value-betting worse when checked to

    I agree he rarely has a draw since he's so tight pre, the only draw that makes sense is KQdd which most likely checks back the Q river

    I think you are going to see AQ/55/33/QQ the vast majority of the time, occasionally AK or AJ but he probably folds AJ a decent amount pre


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