Let's see if you can guess his hand. MP1 is a player who hasn't raised since the Carter administration! (For those who don't know, that's all the way back into the late 1970's!)
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): $102.35
UTG: $37.05
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $20.50
MP1: $44.85 - 18/0/ 0% 3bet / 0% steal / 3.0 AF - 448 hands
MP2: $147.05
CO: $50.75
BTN: $71.45
SB: $44.60
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Jc Kc
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $1
So what does he have? I give you one guess!
I call with the full knowledge of what I'm dealing with; I could flop many different ways to the winner and I am pretty sure I will get paid.
Flop: ($3.25) 2c 7c 2s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
So I'm 199% certain that he does not have a set.
Turn: ($8.25) 3c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $11, MP1 calls $8.50
Now how to extract maximum moneys for my turned flush. I don't think he's going to fold my raise here. I can get away from the hand if an Ace hits. Correction: I am ABSOLUTELY getting away from the hand if an Ace hits.
River: ($30.25) Kh (2 players)
Hero bets $14, MP1 calls $14
I got a little scared - I wanted value on the river here, but I am afraid of a rivered boat (perhaps my read is wrong and he has KK). I still want value because he's always checking through the river given my turn raise. This is half blocker bet, half value bet. If he raises, I fold.
Final Pot: $58.25
Hero shows Jc Kc (a flush, King high)
MP1 mucks As Ac
Hero wins $55.35
(Rake: $2.90)
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20 hours ago
The last statement is kinda silly... There is exactly 1 way he can have KK and 6 ways to have AA. I have a 1 out of 7 shot that he rivered a boat. I missed a few $$$ of value here. However, I don't know that he calls a shove on the river; he has $29.85 remaining going into the river. Given my turn check / raise, I think he's probably going to be wary of stacking off the river.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he's ever folding to a river shove, especially when he's waited 448 hands for his AA, lol
ReplyDeleteAlways nice to smash the board when your nitty opponent has the most obvious AA ever!
ReplyDeleteI think the river bet sizing is fine. Like you said he's going to be wary after the turn raise. NH
Very nice hand! I was wondering if you could tell me the program that you use to see their 3bet% and all that. I saw one for ultimate bet but not for full tilt which I play on, was just wondering if you could help me out..thanks!
ReplyDelete@thre3kgt811: There are two tools: Holdem Manager (HEM) and PokerTracker 3 (PT3) which handle all of the stats and work with P*, FT, UB, etc. I put a post together on it awhile back - if you look on the right side of my blog under "Labels" you will find a "Holdem Manager" label and a "Poker Tracker" label. The "Poker Tracker" label includes 2 posts, one explaining the stats and another with links for HEM discounts.
ReplyDelete@Happy: I missed value. No doubt. I should have stacked him but I missed the extra $15. Crappy.
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot I appreciate it!!
ReplyDelete