Thursday, July 22, 2010

Guess his hand!

Let's see if you can guess his hand.  MP1 is a player who hasn't raised since the Carter administration!  (For those who don't know, that's all the way back into the late 1970's!)

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $102.35
UTG: $37.05
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $20.50
MP1: $44.85 - 18/0/ 0% 3bet / 0% steal / 3.0 AF - 448 hands
MP2: $147.05
CO: $50.75
BTN: $71.45
SB: $44.60

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Jc Kc
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $1
So what does he have?  I give you one guess!

I call with the full knowledge of what I'm dealing with; I could flop many different ways to the winner and I am pretty sure I will get paid.

Flop: ($3.25) 2c 7c 2s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
So I'm 199% certain that he does not have a set.

Turn: ($8.25) 3c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $11, MP1 calls $8.50
Now how to extract maximum moneys for my turned flush.  I don't think he's going to fold my raise here.  I can get away from the hand if an Ace hits.  Correction:  I am ABSOLUTELY getting away from the hand if an Ace hits.

River: ($30.25) Kh (2 players)
Hero bets $14, MP1 calls $14
I got a little scared - I wanted value on the river here, but I am afraid of a rivered boat (perhaps my read is wrong and he has KK).  I still want value because he's always checking through the river given my turn raise.  This is half blocker bet, half value bet.  If he raises, I fold.

Final Pot: $58.25
Hero shows Jc Kc (a flush, King high)
MP1 mucks As Ac
Hero wins $55.35
(Rake: $2.90)


  1. The last statement is kinda silly... There is exactly 1 way he can have KK and 6 ways to have AA. I have a 1 out of 7 shot that he rivered a boat. I missed a few $$$ of value here. However, I don't know that he calls a shove on the river; he has $29.85 remaining going into the river. Given my turn check / raise, I think he's probably going to be wary of stacking off the river.

  2. I don't think he's ever folding to a river shove, especially when he's waited 448 hands for his AA, lol

  3. Always nice to smash the board when your nitty opponent has the most obvious AA ever!

    I think the river bet sizing is fine. Like you said he's going to be wary after the turn raise. NH

  4. Very nice hand! I was wondering if you could tell me the program that you use to see their 3bet% and all that. I saw one for ultimate bet but not for full tilt which I play on, was just wondering if you could help me out..thanks!

  5. @thre3kgt811: There are two tools: Holdem Manager (HEM) and PokerTracker 3 (PT3) which handle all of the stats and work with P*, FT, UB, etc. I put a post together on it awhile back - if you look on the right side of my blog under "Labels" you will find a "Holdem Manager" label and a "Poker Tracker" label. The "Poker Tracker" label includes 2 posts, one explaining the stats and another with links for HEM discounts.

  6. @Happy: I missed value. No doubt. I should have stacked him but I missed the extra $15. Crappy.

  7. Thanks a lot I appreciate it!!


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