Friday, July 2, 2010

What would you do? #131 - When to fold AK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $17.50
BTN: $102.50
Hero (SB): $54.00
BB: $68.60
UTG: $34.00
UTG+1: $51.95 - 19 / 15 / 38% steal / 5.7% 3bet / 4.8 aggression factor / 2K hands
MP1: $65.05
MP2: $145.40 - 14 / 10 / 28% steal / 2.6% 3bet / 2.5 aggression factor / 50% cbet flop / 928 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with As Kc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $5.25, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $5, 2 folds
Quite a bit of history on both players, from the stats.  Here are my thoughts on this:

I wonder whether I should be folding this outright.  A case could be made that this guy does not 3bet all that often (2.6%), which gives him a pretty well-defined range; perhaps QQ+, AK.

The second thought I have is that I believe I lose a lot of the value of AK by flatting and not 4 betting to $15.  If I 4bet to $15, I likely fold out AK, but get QQ to flat, and KK+ to overshove.

The third thought is to flat, out of position, like I did.  I can pray for the Ace or King, but I don't even know if that's good, given MP2's range here.  More to the point, even if I do hit my Ace or King, and it is good, what is the chance that I'm getting value out of it?

I think this mistake hand cost me $5, which is a small price to pay, but a price nevertheless.  I think, had I chosen option 2, it could have cost me a whole lot more.  However, option 1, folding outright, is probably the best choice here.

Thoughts?

Flop: ($12.50) 8h 3h 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7.25, Hero folds

Final Pot: $12.50
MP2 wins $11.90
(Rake: $0.60)

As a side note, one commenter pointed out that I am placing too much priority on stats, particularly given datapoint sizes.  I have really taken this comment to heart; definitely learned from it - as I am indeed placing less stress on smaller sample sizes.  I have definitely been focused on that point.  It is much appreciated, Anonymous, whoever you are!
Posted by The Poker Meister at 7/02/2010 08:00:00 AM
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3 comments:

  1. matt tagJuly 2, 2010 at 9:30 AM

    Agreed that it's easy to place too large an emphasis on a small sample size, but it's the only data we have!

    I like the fold on this hand - I like to have some reason to think there's a chance the three bettor is making a move before 4 betting with AK. I have no evidence of that here.

    I was consdering if I might be more inclined to call with AKs in the extra hope of flopping a monster draw, but many monster draws end up being coin flips vs. his super tight range here, so I'm not sure that's the right either.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJuly 2, 2010 at 11:11 AM

    You're welcome. I have been guilty of the same thing, so that's why mentioned it.

    btw, i'll stay anon, thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  3. edgie212July 2, 2010 at 11:32 AM

    That's always a problem when you are dealing with a small sample size, but 928 hands from MP2 definitely indicates that he treads the boards somewhat frequently. I would probably quickly scan OPR if I could before flatting. The reraise shows strength, but I'd probably consider check-calling if I caught an ace or a king here. Since you didn't, an easy fold.

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