Wednesday, July 21, 2010

What would you do? #144 - Facing river pot bet with PP AA

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

MP2: $50.00 - 9 / 7 / 28% steal / 1.8% 3bet / 1.0 aggression factor / 133 hands
CO: $20.25
BTN: $54.55
SB: $34.75
BB: $35.20 - 44 / 6 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.6 aggression factor / 48 hands
UTG: $105.40
UTG+1: $51.20
UTG+2: $53.70
Hero (MP1): $74.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with As Ah
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, MP2 calls $1.75, 3 folds, BB calls $1.25
The BB coming along can only mean one thing: AK or PPs.

Flop: ($5.50) 8d 2h 4s (3 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $2.75, MP2 calls $2.75, BB folds
Yuck MP2 flatting in position.  He's either got 99+ or a flopped set.

Turn: ($11.00) 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50
Modest-sized turn lead.  I'll peel one more & see if he slows down.

River: ($26.00) Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I've got to be beat here, right?  He's not shown to be an aggressive player.  Easy fold?

I feel like I've seen this dance a million times before: build a pot, build a pot, build a pot.  A 9/7 is overcalling with two ranges: low pocket pairs and AK.  Is AK or a low pocket pair ever value betting with a pot sized bet on the river?  Is a low pocket pair flatting the flop?  There are no obvious draws for a 9/7.  This is a flopped set, where I think I paid $7.50 extra to find out.

Final Pot: $26.00
MP2 wins $24.70
(Rake: $1.30)


  1. you're beat now unless he has a bluff, or exactly QQ or a slowplayed KK. TT bets turn but doesn't pot river. JJ bets turn and pots river when he hits his set.

    easy fold. (I say "easy" like it's easy to fold AA at any point, LOL).

  2. He's a 9/7 calling from MP1 (first caller to the pot). He has to have a low pocket pair or AK,AQ - with a higher weight towards low pocket pairs. With a 1.0 AF, is he ever getting so aggro on the river unless he realizes that he slow played himself into not getting stacks in?


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