Thursday, July 15, 2010

Becoming less gunshy...

I posted a few days ago that I was really becoming gunshy with PF hand holdings (read the comments section as well)...  After corresponding with Matt Tagomgitsjoshua (my personal poker guru), and HappyPixel via comments, I realized that I'm not nearly as aggro PF as I should be.  I am lagging behind the curve - I fold too easily to a 3bet or raise (or worse, flat OOP) - partially due to the fact that I have run so poorly lately.  This talk, combined with reading Bluff's articles this month which speak about the insanity of changing your play even though you are doing the right things (only being results-oriented because they don't work out) has me realizing that I'm actually changing my play based on results and not statistics.  As poker players, we should strive to be analytical, not results-based.

It's much easier to write this when you're running good rather than bad, so I am writing while coming off of 2 or 3 "run bad" sessions where I've been set-over-setted a number of times (both when AI and I'm far ahead and when I'm far behind, but never when I'm behind and doing the suck out), and sucked out on the river (all in on the turn) with numerous holdings that are far ahead of the villain.  I need to believe what I wrote above... we all do.

Here's what I'm typically doing:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $188.05
BB: $43.70
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $169.55
UTG+2: $56.85
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $49.00
CO: $93.85  - 14/12 / 44% steal / 4.8% 3bet / 50% fold to 3bet / 3.3 aggression factor
BTN: $17.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah Kh
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.50, 2 folds, CO raises to $18.50, Hero calls $11
I don't know if this is an exact example because we're so deep here; nearly 200BBs.  I really question, though, whether I want to shove AKs for what appears to be no better than a coin flip.

Flop: ($38.00) Ac 3c Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22.50, Hero calls $22.50

Turn: ($83.00) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($83.00) 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Final Pot: $83.00
Hero shows Ah Kh (a pair of Aces)
CO shows Th Kd (Ace King high)
I think other players are picking up on my "weak" PF style and trying to take advantage.  Is he really 4betting my repped 3bet strength?
Hero wins $80.00
(Rake: $3.00)

I leave you with this hand history as proof of chaning my ways asabove:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

CO: $50.00
BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $51.75
BB: $50.00 - 16/11 / 18% steal / 2.4% 3bet @ 281 hands
UTG: $51.50
UTG+1: $29.35
UTG+2: $20.10
MP1: $57.15
MP2: $80.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Qh Qc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, 4 folds, BTN calls $1, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $51.75 all in, 1 fold

Final Pot: $32.00
Hero wins $32.00

One other thing, so long as I'm not writing a WWYD post...  I took a shot at 100NL last night.  I played ~400 hands, and was largely confident in my play.  I did get decent PF cards, which held up, and hit a couple of sets which I got paid on - and wound up with an okay profit.  I ran a 20/13 with a 6.5% 3bet, which says I'm feeling fairly comfortable there.  Needless to say, this won't be the last time I'll be playing up.

1 comment:

  1. the best advice I heard regarding set over set is this:

    "the correct play is almost always to go broke".

    Now if the board is 9h Th Jh and you're sitting there with a set of nines and the action before you goes bet/raise/shove, then I can see laying down a set. But the situation/board has to be pretty brutal for me to consider it.

    Just get all your money in with a set and if someone has a higher one, you can know right away that you played it correctly.


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