Monday, July 5, 2010

What would you do? #132 - Facing strong turn / river play holding a "bluff catcher"

This was a takeaway from my 2010-07-03 Atlantic City trip:

A background on the players...  The table was a mix of inexperienced players, local "rocks" and wannabe young douche bags (you know; the sunglasses-wearing, Ed Hardy shirt guys with too many tattoos - sorry if I'm alienating any of my readers, but you know who you are if you are one... and for some reason, they rub me the wrong way).  I call the "rocks," rocks with quotes because by-and-large these players are terrible and only making money from the tourists.

At any rate, there was one particularly good player who I would try to avoid.  For this hand history's purpose, I will refer to him as nanonoko, because he reminded me of Randy Lew.  Clearly an online player who converted, he was positionally aware and selectively aggressive as hell.  Every time I would raise and he had position, he would flat as he would against other players.  He knew full well how to raise, 3bet, cbet air on 2 or more streets, and just generally run over the table which he was doing quite well - he was sitting on approximately $1.2K in chips, easily the big stack at my table.  He was showing bluffs when he got folds and showing down winners when he needed to; a pretty scary overall player - better than my skill level.

On the other hand, I had just gotten to even on my session, sitting on a $375 stack, which was probably good for second largest stack.  He knew that I was an internet player as well - we never discussed stakes, hands or volume, so I believe he assumed me to be a losing single-tabler.  I'm not sure that he saw me as a fish, but I believe he saw me as a level 2 thinker: able to play my hand and put my opponent on a hand.  Lastly, he knew I was able to make a fold with an overpair because I had done so [correctly] in prior hands.

All of that said, facing 2 limpers, I raised to $15 with 9 9 from MP.  My pattern had been $10 + ~$2 per limper.  I was getting decent value by doing so; if nanonoko wasn't involved, I could take the pot with a flop cbet.  Anyway, a particularly bad local rock who had been calling ATC came along for the call as well as nanonoko, from the BTN.  All other players folded and we saw a 3-way flop of:

2 7 4 rainbow

With ~$50 in the pot, I donk led for $15, wanting callers to come along.  (In retrospect, this was a particularly bad bet, giving good odds for any two overs 2 float, but I was not getting a TON of resistance when cbetting without nanoko involved in pots.)  The bad rock flatted, and nanonoko decided to put in a raise to $50.  After careful thought, I flatted, OOP and the rock folded.  We saw a 2 way turn of:


I checked to the aggressor who carved out a $60 stack.  Here is the WWYD?  I think that making the call here commits you to making a river crying call regardless, but what would you do?  I don't really have physical reads to give you; I think this hand played very well like an internet hand, and other than the prior description above, you can treat it as such.

Click to see results

There were three factors at play for me:
First, I had seen him show a lot of bluffs, from a similar line of aggression.  The concern he was capable of overcalling with just the type of hands that were on the board; any two garbage.  However, the only "logical" hand combo that I could put him on was 7 4...  Is he really overcalling on the button with 7 2?  I can pretty much rule out overpairs, JJ+; my OOP flat on the flop has to at least draw a bit of concern that maybe I too hit a set.  Of course I felt like this line is clearly repping a flopped set, but he knows that I'm an internet player and can at least put opponents on a hand; would he make it so obvious to me that he has a set?  I would think he would turn or river raise me and keep bad rock in the hand to let him chase his 2 overcards, etc.  I suppose he was off in his estimation of me - as far as I was level 3 thinking, not level 2.

Second, he needs to build a pot if he wants to stack me.  I'm sure he knows this; he's clearly experienced.  He raised to $50 on the flop, which is the beginnings of a pot building.  At this point, there's about $150 in the pot going into the turn.  To bet $60 into $150 is significantly slowing down and not setting up for stacks on the river, because he knows that I'm in check / call down mode.

Third, if you're thinking raise, this is a way ahead way behind situation.  The most value gained here is letting him continue to bluff / value bet.  If I raise, I kill the action because it's going to fold all of his bluffs and value town myself to his monsters.

I'm also thinking about his "logical" hand possibilities: he's not flop raising strong with 8 7; he's folding out bluffs and dominated by overpairs.  I took to the thought of weighted much more heavily towards bluffs and semi bluffs than overpairs, sets and two pair combos.

Therefore, I make the passive check / call.

We saw a river with a pot size of $270:


He led for $80 and not tanking nearly as much, I make the call for the first pump win - $430 pot!

For those interested, I made him showdown first; he showed down Q 2, claiming he thought I was on a draw.  So glad his selective aggression value towned himself...

GG nanonoko (his real name was Luke)!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Blog Archive