Wednesday, July 28, 2010

What would you do? #149 - Facing a river "shove" holding an overpair KK

Am I being pushed off the best hand here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $30.90
UTG: $61.95 - 18 / 15 / 42% steal / 6.9% 3bet / 26% fold to 3bet / 1.3 AF - 801 hands
UTG+1: $19.50
UTG+2: $19.00
MP1: $50.00
Hero (MP2): $153.40
CO: $18.00
BTN: $43.35
SB: $11.95

CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is MP2 with Kc Kh
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero raises to $7.25, 4 folds, UTG calls $5.25

Flop: ($15.75) 5c 6d Qs (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9
I should have probably checked this flop.  What hands are calling PF to a strong 3bet?  I think JJ+ are certainly calling.

Turn: ($33.75) 2h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
I am trying to pot control at this point.

River: ($33.75) 9s (2 players)
UTG bets $45.70 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
Am I wrong to fold this?  I think he puts me on exactly what I have: KK+, and his range is JJ-QQ.  I'm pretty sure he flopped a set.

Final Pot: $33.75
UTG wins $32.10
(Rake: $1.65)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 7/28/2010 08:00:00 AM
Labels: ,

10 comments:

  1. WillWonkaJuly 28, 2010 at 8:30 AM

    So what do we know about him? He rarely folds to a 3 bet. You've done your Cbet thing and he floated you. BTW, I would never had checked this flop. He is not overly aggressive given this limited amount of hands; but does show aggression preflop.

    You have showed weakness.

    Could it be an OBFV (Overbet for value)? Sure; but putting him on just 2 hands seems a little like you are justifying your fold. Certainly KQ, AQ, AK, etc type hands are also in his range.

    Having said all of that, I think I am calling; but folding doesn't seem terrible..

    ReplyDelete
  2. matt tagJuly 28, 2010 at 8:40 AM

    tough spot - your turn check could have induced bluffs.

    I usually snap these off, but then again, I'm a crappy 2.0 BB/100 player.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Poker MeisterJuly 28, 2010 at 9:13 AM

    My turn check is definitely trying to induce bluffs. I am absolutely likely to call river bets, but this is an overbet shove. Do I really intend to stack off with an overpair? He's a 1.3 AF. I just don't see him showing up with a *VERY* strong hand, and by his shove on the river, the only hand I'm beating is AQ.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Poker JJuly 28, 2010 at 10:21 AM

    I think this is 50/50. He is polarized here with the nutts QQ/99 or turned a medium hand into a bluff. Your check on the turn looks weak and definately induces bluffs. Lots of times I see people at 50 take this line when they they have something like 88-JJ because they do not know what to do. They dont want you to bluff them on the river with AK and they dont want to show down. I think either call or fold is fine but more times than not, he value bets a set more than this craziness.

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  5. omgitsjoshuaJuly 28, 2010 at 11:20 AM

    Flop Questions to ask:

    1) Why c-bet?
    2) For value?
    3) To charge draws?
    4) What do you do if you c/rsd?

    Turn Questions to ask:

    1) Why are you checking?
    2) To induce a river shove? spazz? bluff?

    What would I do? I think your line here has to be bet-bet-bet. Villain defends 3bets way too much [74%] so he's going to get in there with most of his raising range ~i.e.~ 10-11% of his hands. This includes almost all pairs and some random suited connectors that he over-values heads-up.

    Pre: I like your 3bet.
    Flop: Good bet sizing.
    Turn: I'm betting $25-28 and obv calling the extra $17 if villain sticks it in.

    I think the mistake in this hand was checking the turn. A lot of value is derived at the turn by charging "more than the flop" for draws and getting players pot-committed and putting the rest on by the river. Why make playing your nutty hand more difficult than it has to be? If you get check-raised on the flop and then villain shoves the turn it's a lot closer of a decision than when you check through the turn.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Adam27XJuly 28, 2010 at 12:09 PM

    I'd bet/call around $16 OTT. I don't see how you can narrow his range here to QQ/99 only OTR when his fold to 3bet is only 26% over a decent sample. Do you think he's folding KQ/AQ here OTT if he's calling pre with it (and he very likely is)?

    ReplyDelete
  7. SeanJuly 28, 2010 at 5:04 PM

    Also worth noting is that you've built a big pot preflop with a premium holding -- you only have about two pot-sized bets to get him all-in. I think you should be looking to get it in here and if he has one of the three combinations of trip queens (or an oddly played AA) those are the breaks.

    I don't mind the turn check as long as you intend to call any river bet and bet if he checks. I think the river is a must-call because he could have AQ or KQ or could be responding to your turn check. If he has you beat, he has you beat -- you have a premium hand with a stack-to-pot ratio of 3.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The Poker MeisterJuly 28, 2010 at 7:18 PM

    So, on talking this over the phone with Josh, I was much better able to express my opinion about this hand:

    To start, I have clearly repped my hand as AA, KK, AK. I lead the flop which he flats. I check through the turn for 2 reasons: to induce a bluff on the river, but also to pot control. However, by the river, I have repped exactly AK or KK, AA. I am pretty certain he is check / raising the turn if I lead the turn - which is why he shoves the river... He figures either "I got it or I don't." If I got it, I'm calling and if I don't, I'm folding regardless of his bet. Does that make any sense? By the river, he's polarized but much more heavily weighted towards monsters than air. I think air (and most value plays who are not putting me on AA,KK but putting me on something call-worthy) are betting 2/3 pot or 1/2 pot or some formula thereof. He realizes that he missed a street of value (because I checked through), yet still wants to play for stacks. Therefore, he overshoves, saying to me "If you got AA,KK I think you're snapping me off."

    A. I don't know that AQ is calling a 3bet to $7.25 PF.
    B. I don't see TT or below calling a 3bet such as this - but it's certainly possible; we are a little more than 100BB's deep.
    C. Therefore, I deduce the only hand he can be doing this with is AK (air) that floats OOP on the flop, or QQ, KK, [funk-ily played] AA. Very unlikely that he rivered a flop-floated 99 set.
    D. What value is he expecting to get a call from? If he puts me on AK, then he doesn't want to shove here because he misses a ton of potential value by letting me bluff bet on the end. Can I call with JJ or less? No. The only hands that can call this bet are the exact hands I have: AA, KK. Therefore, I'm positive he has me beat.

    Josh was suggesting bet-bet-bet the turn... getting c/r'ed on the turn makes my decision easy; calling $17 remaining stacks is a simple decision... which is exactly why I check through the flop (see above).

    As a final point, and this is totally strange thinking to me, but I still think & stand by it: If he bets like $20, I'm good here more than enough to call down his bluff / monster hand. Since he's over-shoving $46, and I have 25% effective stacks committed, I fold & wait for a better spot.

    Now that I concisely put my thoughts together, I hope that this spawns further discussion... Let the flames begin :-)!

    First one from anonymous: Don't be such a pussy; you got one of two nut overpairs! Don't play weak! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  9. WillWonkaJuly 28, 2010 at 8:35 PM

    The main thing I look to for this guy given the stats that you provided was his fold to 3bet. He hardly does this, so that puts him on a wider range which definitely includes AQ and JJ and KQ (sooted perhpas).

    I would have bet the turn and been glad to get it in here; but as played I would still call; but again, folding isn't terrible as you can probably find better spots.

    ReplyDelete
  10. omgitsjoshuaJuly 28, 2010 at 9:49 PM

    The only argument I can think of for checking the turn is to induce a bluff on the river. Great...that's what he did right? Bluffed the river? Not so fast. I think this is an overbet shove for value because villain's stats suggest he's a competent, thinking reg. Based on that, I think he knows that he doesn't need to bet $45 into a $32 pot to win it. Instead he could bet $25-full pot to effectively do the same thing--fold out almost Mesiter's entire range. I actually like the river fold as played; however, I'm sticking to betting turn [calling raise] and then betting river. I see no reason to slow down betting throughout the hand, especially since the pot became large so quickly, SPR's are miniscule...

    ReplyDelete

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