Thursday, July 29, 2010

What would you do? #151 - Facing flop shove holding overpair KK in 3 way pot

Again, I had one of those nights where I was on a roller coaster. I was getting my opponents into spots where I was very much +EV, but I could not seem to get the cards to cooperate. At one point, I think I was down 3 buy ins, but I somehow managed to overcome and win THREE (3) WHOPPING BBs!!!! Yes, that's $1.50!!! BOOYAH! To be honest, though, given how I ran, I feel like I had a major win last night.

There was one Argentinian dude who kept pushing everything he had - draws, hands, etc. and hitting it even when behind. The cards would not reciprocate with me as far as luck; he was mostly responsible for the early deficit. The second hand I played against him, I got it all in AA vs. his AK (and I held). I should have treasured that, because I would go on to get a set all in on the flop vs. his flush draw and he turned it. I would hit an OESFD vs. his flopped set - all in again, and turn the flush but the river would pair the board. Those were the 3 notable hands that I remember, but there was other nonsense like him hitting two pair against my overpair, and other BS. It just sucked and was frustrating.

Anyway, this HH goes right to the top of the heap.  This hand took place last night...  related to all the HHs that I've been throwing on here showing a similar pattern of flatting a 3bet and getting wild action for stacks on the flop / turn / river.

Go ahead & let the flames begin!

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $46.45
UTG: $20.95
UTG+1: $50.75
Hero (UTG+2): $115.05 - I'm showing an 18/15 / 4.8% 3bet / 45% steal / 1.6 AF / 138 hands at the table
MP1: $34.25
MP2: $64.05
CO: $50.00
BTN: $53.20 - 16/9 / 0% steal / 3.7% 3bet / 10 AF / 150 hands
SB: $51.60 - 18/3 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / 3.0 AF / 44 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Kd Ks
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB raises to $7.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.75, BTN calls $5.75
So in 44 hands, the SB has yet to 3bet, which is not a big deal.  The only problem is that he's shown to be a fairly competent player who is choosing an odd spot, SB, to 3bet and/or squeeze.  I decide to take a flop rather than 4bet.  Unfortunately, that gets BTN to flat twice.

I feel like I've seen this before...

Flop: ($23.00) 9s Qh 8d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $23, SB raises to $44.10 all in, Hero ???
What else can BTN or SB have?  I have to believe that SB has AA at this point - or KK - and BTN has QQ.  Perhaps I have it backwards, but someone hit this flop hard and someone is going to get crushed.  We can rule out the random JT here right?

What would you do?  Be honest and leave a comment PRIOR to clicking the reveal.  I feel like this is a hand that goes to show down, so I don't want an "Of course!  Fold all day every day!" or "Of course!  How can you fold to an obvious bluff?!?!?"  What are the ranges / and am I dominated here or am I making a stupid decision and should be calling off the rest of my stack?

Click to see results

Hero folds, BTN calls $21.10

Turn: ($111.20) Kh (2 players - 1 is all in) - rat bastard!  3rd best hand would be first best!

River: ($111.20) 3s (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $111.20
BTN shows Qd Qc (three of a kind, Queens) - I feel like at this point, it's somewhat of an obvious tell for a player to flat with QQ like that.  He's in no-man's land... akin to JJ, but worse because there's only 2 hands that beat you instead of 3.  I feel like QQ and JJ play hands very similarly, and you can see that pattern evidenced in the past few HHs.
SB shows Ah Ad (a pair of Aces)
BTN wins $108.20
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. I am not sure if I could do it in real time but I think a fold is correct here because unless the button is on a complete bluff, which is possible with the pot bet, you are crushed by SB. I would not quickly rule out JT since the button flatted and then flatted again multiway. I think the button could have 88 + here and JT+. SB is pretty much QQ or AA after the crai.

    I think a 4 bet pre is better than flatting with others in the hand.

  2. I feel like 4betting here is only going to fold out non-AA (and maybe AK) hands. I'm going to find that out really quickly. If I 4 bet, I do take down a nice pot assuming it works, but I'm kind of in a quasi- set mining mode here...

  3. and they say poker sites aren't rigged. AA vs. KK. vs. QQ - the ultimate in cold decks.

    Oh, wait, this happened in my live cash game in April, so nevermind.

    I don't know what the hell to do postflop. What a mess. Preflop, though, I 4bet (either shove or bet/call). 3 reasons:

    1. 44 hands of history on the SB is not quite enough to convince me he's definitely "competent" or "nitty". He could have had 82o for 30 hands in a row, and this is the first ace-face he's seen since then.

    2. Raise + call = squeeze situation for him.

    3. I don't want the BTN in the hand. I don't want to play kings 3 way. I wonder what the EV is when I run KK vs. a very tight range heads up, as opposed to KK vs. a tight range AND a third player who might have certain draws.

    Maybe that's the difference between good NL50 players and not-as-good-me (NL10 or 25), but I almost always just go with kings preflop.

  4. @Matt - At this point, I probably have enough HH (450K+) that I can sorta feel out AA behavior, when I see PF + post flop action. I'm not trying to claim my spidey sense is 100% accurate, but Rush poker really helped me develop that sense. It would have been all the more impressive had I folded it outright to the 3bet, PF, but I wasn't 100% sure there. By the flop, I know I'm beat - if not by a set of Queens, then by AA. And as Poker J said earlier, I'm more scared of SB PF than BTN. By the flop, I know exactly what everyone has; behaviors match up for BTN to show QQ - just not sure whether SB has AK or AA (or KK).

    At this point in my career, KK is not an autoshove, except against specific opponents. Not against an 18/3 with 44 hands of history who has taken to 3betting me all of a sudden (out of the SB).

    If SB has AK, then so be it - I'm likely folding an Ace high flop. Again, I just don't see a 4bet doing very much here PF. AA is definitely raising all in and AK is maybe calling maybe raising all in. Opponent specific.

  5. I don't mind not 4-betting because surely this completely polarises your range to AA-KK and all but AA are going to fold.

    On the flop I think this has to be a fold even if there is no AA out there that flop smashes a three-bet calling range IMO


Blog Archive