Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The Poker Meister #68 - It's been A LONG WHILE!!!

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

MP2: $55.50
CO: $78.05
BTN: $52.35 - NIT tight player.  Low 3 bet %.
SB: $52.20
BB: $87.25
UTG: $52.00
UTG+1: $57.10
Hero (MP1): $55.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 9d Jd
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BTN raises to $4.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.75
Pretty sure he's only raising an EP raiser with AA, KK, AK, AQ.

Flop: ($9.75) 7d Kd 8s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8, Hero calls $8
Not a bad flop!  Given his 3bet, he can easily show up with a set of Kings.  I don't think he's getting away from the hand if I hit my draw, but I don't think I have any fold equity here against his hand, so I draw another card for the $8.

Turn: ($25.75) Th (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero raises to $42.75 all in, BTN calls $21.85 all in

River: ($105.45) Qh (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $105.45
BTN shows Ac As (a pair of Aces)
Hero shows 9d Jd (a straight, King high)
Hero wins $102.45
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. Don't you think the call on the flop is marginal. You only get paid off if you hit the T or maybe back door a straight but even then, he has to be nervous about all the broadway cards on the board if he has AA, AK, AQ, JJ, KK. I am not sure you get paid off by a nit if your flush hits the turn or river so why is calling the more than 3/4 pot bet a good call.

  2. @Anonymous - I hit a flop where I have a flush and gutter - whatever he bets, I'm not dropping this hand. I'm pretty certain I get paid (but not stacks) if a diamond hits the turn / river - players like this sit around and wait for AA so they can take it to the wall.

    Are you suggesting folding 15 outs / 50% equity on the flop? I can understand why you think I'm not getting paid, but are you folding a flopped OESFD ever? Perhaps my thinking is wrong; do you have an alternate approach?

  3. Both points have merit [Anonymous and Poker Meister]. Anonymous makes a very good point to discuss what your 'calibrated implied odds' are in this scenario. Here are the key questions which I believe Anonymous was pointing out:

    1) If a non-diamond 10 hits the turn/river, and no other diamond falls, do you get his stack?

    Answer: Yes.

    2) If a non-diamond 10 does not fall on the turn, what is the cost of seeing the river and/or what is your turn line?

    Answer: You'll most likely be getting this 'monster draw' in behind if you lead the turn and call a shove or if you check-raise-all-in. You don't have much Fold Equity against villain as because stacks aren't deep enough and too much moneys are already invested.

    3) If a diamond hits the turn, what % of villain's stack do you get on turn/river?

    Answer: Most likely one street of good value or two small value bets, but I don't see stacks going.

    So the lingering question is: can you ignore the fact that you have lots of outs and re-calibrate how much adjusted equity you have based on how much money is expected to be earned from all of your outs? Furthermore, are you paying too much on the flop given the adjustment in your equities?

    This is a tough question that will probably require an excel workbook or two to get a better estimate.

  4. @Anonymous - You know, the more I think about it, I kinda disagree about the whole getting paid off / chasing a draw idea. By your statement, "not sure you get paid off by a nit if your flush hits the turn or river so why is calling the more than 3/4 pot bet a good call" I don't think it matters what he bets here. If he bets 1/4 pot or 1/2 pot, if I'm not getting paid for my flush, I'm not getting paid. Basically, I'm only calling due to the pot odds of the situation, not the implied odds. I guess what I'm getting at is it seems like you're proposing not chasing a draw against a nit... in fact to only call when you simply beat their range every time you enter into a pot with them. Although I understand the logic, I disagree. There are plenty of nits - TONS of nits (I realize that we're in a math game, but I can't give concrete examples or percentages :-) )- that cannot lay down AA, sets, overpairs, etc. Also, I think there are plenty of times where I check / call like this with an AK against a BTN's 3bet.

    It is plausible that he puts me on AKo, or a strong Kxo hand against his 3bet range. Since the Kd is out there, he knows full well that if I hold AK, I can't be drawing to the flush. He also knows full well that it is fairly unlikely for me to hold KTo - what reason does he have to expect me to call a 3bet OOP... or raise PF with KTo from EP? I think the only hands he can reasonably put me on [which beat him] are a very unlikely KK (set), 88 (set) or 77 (set). He has to believe that he folded out TT, JJ, QQ to his flop cbet on an overcard board. What combos do I show up here with that call a 3bet OOP (against a tight opponent) that are drawing to the flush? Perhaps (rarely) AQs, AJs, QJs, JTs.

    Note: The Ad is still out there since his hand does not hold the Ad.

  5. @Anonymous - On even further thought, I think an even more appropriate move here would be to shove check/raise the flop. That way I'm maximizing my equity and putting him to a decision. The reason I didn't and don't like doing that is I'm only ~50% to any overpair... I am trying to reduce the variance of a coin flip until I know I'm ahead. If I know exactly what he has, I'm at a huge advantage because I can ditch out of the hand at any point.

  6. To be honest,I did not realize the extra 4 outs with the gutter gave you so much equity but I see that now. I think if you are playing it for pure equity, you have to shove like you mentioned. What is your plan if a 2s comes on the turn and he pots again? You have to fold then because you only have 27% eq.
    I am ok with calling the flop, I think a shove realizes your equity better but if you want to save a little if you miss, that is cool too.It would have been super interesting if the turn bricks.

    Just a thought but sometimes it seems like here you are giving your villians too much credit that they can put you on a hand. I think many nits just see what is on the board at that time and think what beats me and as soon as the flush comes, they think dang it. He must have a flush even though it is such a small percentage of your range. Just my thoughts and the discussion is +ev.

  7. Questionable what the bricked turn would do... I have no doubt I'm folding; he best $18 into $26 on the turn regardless.

    BTW, I know I've asked about it in the past & I know you want to remain anonymous, but could you instead come up with some name for yourself such as "AnonCommenterA" and click the "Name/URL" field instead of Anonymous. That way I know exactly which Anonymous person I'm corresponding with, rather than a generic "Anonymous." Know what I mean? It's nice to have continuity.

  8. The discussions are pretty good on here so I will start naming my self. PokerJ on latest post.


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