Wednesday, June 23, 2010

What would you do? #127 - Missed value?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

BTN: $50.00
SB: $50.00
BB: $58.35 - 36 / 15 / 33% steal / 4.7 aggression factor @ 33 hands
UTG: $35.40
UTG+1: $50.00 - 13 / 12 / 27% steal / 8.6% 3bet / inf aggression factor @ 116 hands
MP1: $129.85
Hero (MP2): $59.90
CO: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with 2h 2c
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds, BB calls $1
Clearly a set mining opportunity.  UTG+1 is a fairly nitty player though.  Highly aggressive in flop+ play though.

Flop: ($4.75) 2s Kc 4s (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, BB folds

Turn: ($11.75) Jc (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11, Hero calls $11

River: ($33.75) Ts (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11, Hero calls $11

Final Pot: $55.75
UTG+1 shows Jh Kh (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
Hero shows 2h 2c (three of a kind, Twos)
Hero wins $53.00
(Rake: $2.75)
Clearly, I missed a *TON* of value.  However, am I becoming too conservative to check / call this down?  That Ts is just crappy - it completes a TON of straights and flushes, but I'm most concerned about a flopped / turned or rivered set.  What point should I be raising in this hand?  Given the results, I obviously could have gotten it all in on the turn, but the question is: with the lowest set possible, should I be pushing here?


  1. river call isn't terrible as played, gotta raise the flop or turn though

  2. I'm raising the turn with the intention of getting it in. So many draws for him to chase that he doesn't want to fold.

    This hand is the perfect example of why the turn is the "go" street. This river card froze the action, even with 2 pretty big holdings (set vs. 2 pair). If you wait until the river to drop the hammer, only bad things happen:

    1. his draw gets there and beats you
    2. his draw DOESN'T get there, so he's not putting a dime into the pot.
    3. scary cards come that prevent opponent from giving you value
    4. scary cards come that they can bluff you on

    bet the turn!

    As for whether this hand is strong enough (at the turn), my answer is - "yes".

  3. No doubt I did not maximize here. I kinda froze up, believing I was set over setted. I have to give these >12% PFR/VPIP players less credit - particularly when they have an infinite AF. He really froze me by betting 3 streets.

  4. i think you are putting too much weight to those statistics after such a short amount of hands. Clearly this is a raise, and your HUD info talked you out of it. i see you posting a lot of hands where your HUD gave you info which you "over-used" 116 hands is just not any kind of sample size, especially for anything post flop (like aggression factor)

  5. I think you play for stacks here, and that means a raise some time before the river, as per Matt tag's reasons.


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