Wednesday, June 30, 2010

What would you do? #129 - Holding an overpair facing 2 barrel from very good regular

Another one against SH.RO.MI.  I hate playing against "the nuts."  Although he's not scary good, he's a VERY solid, winning regular.  He's probably the most solid regular in the 50NL Full Tilt game.  It just pisses me off getting mixed up in a hand against him.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

MP2: $90.75
Hero (CO): $63.00
BTN: $52.10
SB: $30.40
BB: $59.00
UTG: $60.90 - 15 / 12 / 36% steal  / 3.1% 3bet / 2.7 Aggression Factor @ 2.4K hands -
UTG+1: $47.00
MP1: $155.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Jh Jd
UTG raises to $1.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold
His positional raises are more heavily weighted towards late position, as would be common with most positionally aware players...  Anyone 3betting here?

Flop: ($5.75) 8s 4h 2c (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, SB folds

Turn: ($12.75) 3s (2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero folds
I feel like SH.RO.MI is not barreling for 2+ streets of value without something good to very good to the nuts.  His game is usually to fire a cbet with an AK hand (never raising AQ from EP), and check / fold later streets unless he hits.  Therefore, I have to give him credit for a hand here.  Either he's running a bluff (rare) or has me; What hands do I beat that he can be going for 2+ streets?  99-TT.  Otherwise, he's got me crushed with QQ-AA, so this is a 60/40 decision.  I'm giving him credit for the top end rather than the bottom.

Final Pot: $12.75
UTG wins $12.15
(Rake: $0.60)


  1. I actually like a small raise here. It serves many purposes.

    1. baluga bluff - ("strongly re-eval strength of top pair/overpair hand in the face of a turn raise").

    2. if he likes his hand and shoves, you can fold knowing you were most certainly behind, and had very few outs to draw to, so no biggie.

    3. can freeze action on the river if he calls, meaning you might get to showdown w/o having to call a PSB.

  2. @Matt - I thought about a small raise when playing this hand. I came to the conclusion that the problem with the small raise is this: let's say raise to $20 (because $16 would be a true min raise, but $20 is 2.5x). The raise is not going to fold out QQ+ and the pot is now very big compared to my remaining stack size. In other words, I've kinda reached the commitment threshold, where I'm probably good enough times to call a river shove (which I could easily see him doing). If I'm raising small ($12), I may as well call the turn bet instead and call a river bet of the same amount as I would have raised on the turn, to get to showdown at the same cost (essentially pot control). I call the turn, the pot becomes $28.75 going to the river. If he leads, assuming it's an undercard river, he's going to lead for something like half pot, which gets me to the same result but without the risk of him coming over the top on my close-to-min raise on the turn.

    In retrospect, I am waffling on my decision as I write a reply... perhaps I should have called the turn and called a modest river bet. I just felt like an UTG raise is just so strong (in and of itself), particularly when he's 2 barrelling (which all but eliminates his standard AK hands).

  3. Hmmmmm, tough spot.

    When you call on such a ragged board, what does he think YOU have?

    While I don't think you've super underrepped your hand, I do think that JJ would be at the very top of your range given the action.

    He fires again for about 2/3 of the pot. He knows he's under the gun and that you're a thinking player. Could he be using this to try to get you to fold out lower pocket pairs with something like AK? I'm not sure, but I'd maybe like to peel and see if he slows down on the river.

    Then again, I'm somewhat of a NL newbie still... But these quizzes are a great way to learn!


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