Tuesday, June 1, 2010

What would you do?#114 - A lot of pre-flop action

I've given up on Rush for the time being.  Here's the question, though...  Despite the  actual hand result, are you making this call?  I'm wondering whether this is a bad long-term fold...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $60.95
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $90.45 - 30/11 / 13% steal / 17.6% 3bet @ 55 hands
MP2: $17.40 - 7/7 / 12% steal / 3.2% 3bet @ 295 hands
CO: $135.60 - 30/9 / 13% steal / 6.7% 3bet @ 49 hands
BTN: $50.00 - 18/11 / 44% steal / 4.2% 3bet @ 249 hands
SB: $51.00
Hero (BB): $62.80
UTG: $16.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Th Td
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 raises to $2.50, MP2 raises to $4.50, CO calls $4.50, 4 folds, MP1 calls $2

Flop: ($14.75) 6h 9c 6d (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets $12.90 all in, CO calls $12.90, MP1 folds

Turn: ($40.55) Jh (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($40.55) 6c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $40.55
MP2 shows As Ac (a full house, Sixes full of Aces)
CO shows Ks Kc (a full house, Sixes full of Kings)
MP2 wins $38.55
(Rake: $2.00)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 6/01/2010 09:36:00 AM
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6 comments:

  1. matt tagJune 1, 2010 at 9:41 AM

    against MP2 I'm probably folding - he's a nit.

    if the 30/9 was the shover I might call. Would want to see his cbet%/aggression

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJune 1, 2010 at 12:07 PM

    I don't use PT3 or HEM but I think 7/7 over 295 hands is probably a supernit who isn't RR Pre without AA or KK.
    Fold is pretty easy, Your stack and MP2 stack too small for implied odds and CO is likely strong.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJune 1, 2010 at 1:56 PM

    Yes, it is a bad fold. The reason is not because they have you crushed, but because you can put MP2 on such a narrow range (AA, and only sometimes KK). The cold call screems strength too, again giving you a narrow range to work with), and you know MP1 is coming along for just $2. Basically, you can set mine here (calling off 6% of your stack preflop), but your hand may as well be 22. It has no value unless you hit a 10.

    Normally you'd want 5% or less to call to set mine, but since their range is so small, you know they are more likely to stack off, meaning your implied odds are better than normal. i actually disagree that you need to know anything about the 30/9 player, since you can just bet/bet/bet and get it in against anyone if you do hit your set.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Poker MeisterJune 1, 2010 at 8:21 PM

    I get the whole set mining aspect. However, I'm afraid of either of them coming over the top again. I felt like a $4.50 call is sunk money because I expected a 5th bet. Didn't happen, but I felt like I'm committing ~10% of a stack only to get shipped on...

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousJune 2, 2010 at 8:55 AM

    Disagree. MP1 needs AA or KK to come over the top. Anything less than that is just foolish, and he is passive enough/scarred enough to put MP2 on AA or KK

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousJune 2, 2010 at 1:46 PM

    I wouldn't fear MP1 RR either. More likely he calls with good pot odds, and would likely only raise AA against the nit.

    The most important stack is CO who is likely strong smooth-calling the nit, unless he's set mining himself. You don't really have odds to set mine vs MP2 since his stack is too small, but with 4 way action you have a chance to win a decent pot.

    ReplyDelete

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