Wednesday, June 2, 2010

What would you do?#116 - Overbet for value

 I came across an interesting spot the other day where I held the nuts, but was trying to figure out the maximum payoff for the river bet.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $37.44
BTN: $25.10
SB: $59.91
BB: $8.50
UTG: $12.01
UTG+1: $25.00
UTG+2: $59.29
MP1: $27.28
MP2: $7.29

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 7d 6s
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 5d 4s Ac (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.55) 3d (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
I get there, but I'm pretty sure BTN is not showing up with a deuce.  However, at this point, I'm putting him on a strong Ace, and I don't believe he's going away.  However, I don't think I'm going to be able to get stacks in.

River: ($9.55) 2h (2 players)
Hero bets $32.84 all in, BTN calls $20.50 all in
What is the best bet to make here?  From my opponent's mind, we're playing the board.  I've bet all the way through; in his eyes, I have a strong Ace as well.  I thought about what will pay the most here and came to the conclusion that a shove very much looks like a frustration bet where I realize the he just sucked out on me.  I can represent a ton of hands that have been relegated to a split.  Therefore, I go from a pot size of $10 to leading all-in ($33).

Final Pot: $50.55
Hero shows 7d 6s (a straight, Seven high)
BTN mucks 9s As
Hero wins $48.03
(Rake: $2.52)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 6/02/2010 08:00:00 AM
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3 comments:

  1. matt tagJune 2, 2010 at 9:39 AM

    love it. great use of the overbet

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJune 2, 2010 at 1:26 PM

    easy shove and hope he calls. He only has to call a relatively small percent to show a profit. BTW if you has AK and were Villain, are you calling the shove?

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Poker MeisterJune 2, 2010 at 2:10 PM

    Make it even worse than AK - if I have AAA and get shoved on, it is a good WWYD. I simply don't see this type of behavior too much at these levels, so I haven't been confronted with this spot yet. I don't know - what would you guys do?

    I think this is a perfect Brunson type play (I think that's where I read it originally), in that even if I am playing the board, it is a situation where if I can expect a fold even 5% of the time, it is a worthwhile shove. I've done this before and gotten folds from people; i.e. A K Q J T rainbow boards and shoved... seen people stupidly fold. This works particularly well when the board is something like a 3 flush (running) board such as above. They usually can't call the shove.

    ReplyDelete

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