Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Hero (MP2): $53.65
CO: $49.75
BTN: $79.35
SB: $75.30
BB: $55.00
UTG: $20.45
UTG+1: $48.25 - 17/5/ 5% steal / 3.9% 3bet / 1.9 AF @ 635 hands
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $84.20
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Kc Tc
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, BB checks
Flop: ($1.75) 9s Kh 8h (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BB folds
TP, okay kicker. I don't want to get a lot of money into the pot here; I'm hoping for a cheap showdown.
Turn: ($4.75) Kd (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $4, Hero raises to $12, UTG+1 raises to $26.75, Hero ???
Click to see results
Hero folds
I think I change my thinking from wanting to get to a cheap showdown to putting a lot of money in the pot, which is probably a mistake. The third King cuts down the likelihood that he has the case King, but he still presses. Either UTG+1 has a better King, OR UTG+1 hit a set of 8's or 9's. Either way, I believe I'm beat... he certainly thinks he has me beat.
I guess what I question here is what a 17 / 5 is limping with? Certainly 8's and 9's are within his range, as are stronger Kings, such as KQ, KJ. I think I'm done with the hand.
Final Pot: $28.75
UTG+1 wins $27.35
(Rake: $1.40)
I think I change my thinking from wanting to get to a cheap showdown to putting a lot of money in the pot, which is probably a mistake. The third King cuts down the likelihood that he has the case King, but he still presses. Either UTG+1 has a better King, OR UTG+1 hit a set of 8's or 9's. Either way, I believe I'm beat... he certainly thinks he has me beat.
I guess what I question here is what a 17 / 5 is limping with? Certainly 8's and 9's are within his range, as are stronger Kings, such as KQ, KJ. I think I'm done with the hand.
Final Pot: $28.75
UTG+1 wins $27.35
(Rake: $1.40)
I don't think we can ever fold in this spot, especially after raising the turn. You mentioned that you were hoping for a cheap showdown, so why does your plan change on the turn? If the second K means you think it's much less likely he's going to have a K himself, what value are we getting from worse by raising? If you do think he's bad enough to call with worse, it's fine. As played we should get it in. You could also consider flatting the turn though.
ReplyDelete"You mentioned that you were hoping for a cheap showdown, so why does your plan change on the turn?" That's exactly the problem... I changed my strategy mid-hand, and it bit me by $12.
ReplyDelete"If you do think he's bad enough to call with worse, it's fine. As played we should get it in."
He's a 17/5 - so let's consider him a mostly passive player. I don't think he's bad enough to limp PF with worse Kings, but I do think he's passive enough to limp with 88 or 99, KQ, KJ. Those are right within a 17% hand threshold. Let's consider that he's raising QQ+ and AK+ for the 5% PFR. He may very well be limping KTs just like me, but I'd say that's at the very bottom of his range.
Let's consider the action: I raise the turn, fairly strongly, on a paired board. He's practically jumping out of his seat, with the 3bet. Clearly, he believes in his hand... I have kicker problems. The only hands I'm truly beating here are bluffs. I don't think he's 3bet bluffing the turn.
"You could also consider flatting the turn though."
I definitely should have done that. I could have gotten to showdown for ~ the same amount of money as my raise on the turn. The $8 extra $$$ would have bought me a stab at a ten and a showdown (Figure the pot would be $16.75).
Interesting analysis. I think it's cool that you're doing this in each blog entry. Keep it up!
ReplyDeleteI figured this would get a "how could you" type of response. Clearly, I could be wrong here. This could be a donkey spazzing on AA or something like that. But I'm airing on the side of caution here with so little vested.
ReplyDeleteYou know, now that I'm thinking about it - should you ever be willing to go broke without the nuts on a limped pot?
ReplyDelete