Too nitty to fold an overpair? He's not been aggressive yet...
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/397994
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
SB: $31.10
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $10.85
MP1: $16.20
MP2: $28.60
Hero (CO): $45.70
BTN: $36.25
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Js Jc
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60
Flop: ($2.65) 4s Tc 7c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BTN raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $2.25
Turn: ($10.65) 4h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6, Hero ???
Click to see results
Hero folds
Final Pot: $10.65
BTN wins $10.15
(Rake: $0.50)
I think its a tough spot and I err on the side of folding to aggression from nits, while out of position. It's important to try and designate a range of the villain to determine whether you can extract value out of this hand or whether you're getting raised out of it with lesser holdings. What hands do you think the villain could/couldn't have? Here are my thoughts:
ReplyDeleteCouldn't Have: 4x, AA, KK, 44, A-10o. Explanation: A nit that is raising or re-raising 70% of the pots he enters, is generally R/R with AA and KK. it's unlikely that the villain had quads b/c of the sheer unlikeliness and the fact that he isn't too aggressive and i don't see him raising the flop and then betting the turn when making quads. i expect a call or check on one of those two streets. A-10o isn't in his flatting range. pocket pairs and suited aces make up the rest of his flatting range.
Could Have: QQ, JJ, 10-10, 77, 8c9c, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, Ac10c. Explanation: I believe that he may flat you with 10-10-QQ and understands that 3-bet you could turn his hand in to a bluff/lose value. i do see him playing a lot of suited Ax (where x is a broadway card) and suited connectors. also almost all pocket pairs are in his range too.
Caveat #1: Villain is on the button and even a nit will play a higher percentage of their hands on the button. I've noticed a lot of TAG's play about 1.75 to 2X their normal VPIP on the button. Effectively this guy could be playing a VPIP of 20 here which includes a lot of suited connectors and 10x type hands.
Caveat #2: Small hand sample. Get to showdown with the hand. Learn from the experience.