Monday, November 16, 2009

What would you do? #23

Stats on this donkey are 43/16. Aggression factor is 1.2, c-bet is 60% and he has a 36% attempt to steal... all in 100 hands. Clearly, he's an aggro player. UTG+1 had been overlimping a lot as well, seeing a TON of flops.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BTN: $13.00
SB: $12.80
BB: $10.75
Hero (UTG): $114.00
UTG+1: $54.20
MP: $42.25
CO: $53.60

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Kh Ks
Hero raises to $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds
Hate the out of position spot. but KK is the 2nd best hand...gotta get value!

Flop: ($6.00) Jh 2s 5s (3 players)
Hero bets $3.25, UTG+1 calls $3.25, BTN calls $3.25
Pretty decent flop; 2 spades is cause for concern.

Turn: ($15.75) 8h (3 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12, BTN folds
Bricked turn. I want to define his hand very clearly. I think he has to fold the near pot bet if he is on a draw. I also think that this type of player would have raised by this point if he has [gulp] AsJs, AJo, or a set. He's either on a spade draw, or has some semblance of hand... Jx?

River: ($39.75) As (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $20, Hero calls $20
Spades AND Ace get there... What are you doing in this spot? UTG+1 has $37.20 behind and bets half pot / half his remaining stack. Was he calling with A5, A2? I don't think he'd have called that turn bet with those types of hands. He certainly wasn't drawing to the nut flush draw, based on the As river card. What would you do?

Click to see results

Final Pot: $79.75
Hero shows Kh Ks (a pair of Kings)
UTG+1 shows Kd Jd (a pair of Jacks)
Hero wins $76.75
(Rake: $3.00)
My thought is that the Ace represents a good scare card as well as the spade scare. I feel like a half pot bet here is a weakish bet... more like a stab. It could be construed as a value bet from a 18/10 type player, but I think against an aggressive player, he realizes that I have a strong hand by this point and is trying to represent a better rivered hand. I think I have a 50/50 shot to call this and win, and he offers $20 to call $60; 3:1.


  1. Meister,

    First off, I think calling this guy "aggro" is a little off. 43 VPIP is loose, but none of the other numbers scream aggro to me. So I'd be careful in assuming that this guy is going to be going crazy with aggression and showing down garbage.

    This is a spot where the worst possible river card hits and your villain fires into it. What hands make sense given the action here? The hands that make the most sense, given the action, are J-x and a FD hand. The latter gets there and is certainly v-betting this river. The former is almost surely checking back, unless he's holding AJ. Unless you think this guy would for some reason think he could get value with a naked J, then your KK is a bluff-catcher. So unless you have some previous evidence that the villain makes floaty bluffs like this, it's a fold. Oh well, one of the worst cards in the deck came. Not much you can do.

  2. I thought about this spot for a good long while before making the call. I remember this guy being fairly aggro with hands which he felt had strength. I had him pegged as a bit of a donk - capable of a river shove / bluff.

    As far as the call on the end instead of the fold, though... He's giving me 3-1 odds on the river. I believe he would be raising here with AJo - he's the type to stack off with TPTK. Without a raise from him the whole hand, he tells me he's either on a draw or holding JT, QJ and trying to get a better read on me. If he's calling me down the whole way with A2, A5, good game.

    By the turn, I want to send any spade draws out by my near pot bet. I debated on whether to bet pot straight away there, but I came in a little under - about 3/4, leaving his effective stack with $37.20 going to see a river.

    By the river, he's been completely passive - representing the spade draw - and the spades get there. With the As out there, what spades could he have? There are 8 spades remaining since I hold the Ks. The spade combinations HAVE to be Qs or smaller, since the As, Ks, & Js are already out there. The As also eliminates the Asxs draws. QsTs is plausible; he turned an inside straight flush draw... but I would expect him to be raising there. There are a ton of spade suited connectors, but with the 5s in the way, it leaves: 67, 78, 89, 9T, 34, 23. There are 7 "logical" spade combination hands that have me beat.

    Given the strength I've shown throughout the hand, his bet felt pretty weak; he struck me as the type who was capable of a river bluff. I have to believe he, like the BTN, are folding any spade draws on the turn to my large bet. (I was actually surprised to see the BTN fold since he had $8.00 behind at that point.)

    I actually was surprised to see him river bet & KJ - I would not expect him to bet the river on that type of hand because he has some showdown value.


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