Tuesday, November 10, 2009

What would you do? #20

Another orphaned pot example:

V is 15/7/1.0 75% cbet @ 337 hands:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/355005
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $51.55
BB: $25.55
UTG: $15.20
UTG+1: $66.35
Hero (MP1): $76.90
MP2: $7.75
CO: $50.00
BTN: $18.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 5d 4d
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 5 folds

Flop: ($3.75) Kc 2d 6s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2, Hero calls $2
This bet makes no sense in this spot; why is he leading here? I call to peel off another card... Plus, if need be, I have a gut shot.

Turn: ($7.75) 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3
I turn a gut shot flush draw. PLUS, UTG+1 "gives up" on the hand. Now, there is reason to bet for value. I can represent a scared K who is concerned about the backdoor flush. He calls the turn, though...

River: ($13.75) Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ???
If bet, how much? You want to minimize the pain if he shows up with something or comes over the top, but you want to get him to fold in the same action...

Click to see results

Hero bets $5.25, UTG+1 folds

Final Pot: $13.75
Hero wins $13.10
(Rake: $0.65)


  1. First off, villain's $2 flop bet makes plenty of sense. It's a standard C-bet - he could have anything from a medium pair to K-x to a set to air. It could be a v-bet for a made hand or a bluff with a whiffed hand. Doesn't seem remotely odd to me. Gotta bet there on a dry flop to keep the initiative from OOP.

    Your flop call is OK assuming you have some sort of plan. If your plan is to float and steal any good turn card, then that's fine, but I would bet more than the less than 1/2 pot that you did. With that small of a bet, he could easily stick around with something like AQ-AT.

    Given the turn call, he is still more likely to have a medium pair, so the J is scary enough that I would consider another barrel, maybe $8-$10.

  2. I guess it is a loaded question on the end - "how much?" It truly depends on how much you've been betting for value in past hands. I think this is a spot where you want to be consistent with past hands. If you're betting half or less pot for value, then go with that. I tried to create the least amount of pain for me in the event he calls, but a big enough bet that it causes pain for him to be fairly sure - 3.5:1 odds - to make the call on the end. In the end, I figure him for a 77-99. It's always nice to take those pots down with minimal risk.


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