Thursday, November 26, 2009

What would you do? #31

BTN is a known regular, my favorite Russian friend [and yours], Valera49. He's a TAG, with stats of 14/10/AF 3.4/cbet 71%/Steal 28% @ 2541 hands. Tons of sample size here.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $20.00
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $37.45
MP: $49.25
CO: $19.00
BTN: $51.30
Hero (SB): $103.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Qd Qc
4 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BTN raises to $13, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero requests TIME, 1 fold - He's no dummy. He plays well and he's profitable. I can't see him 4 betting 2.5x without AK, AA, KK. I've not seen him do this without the nuts - and I've 3 bet him plenty of times. Perhaps it's nitty, but I don't see that I have very much equity here. What can he honestly have? QQ? JJ?

Final Pot: $10.50
BTN wins $10.50


  1. AA or KK
    I would have folded called if I had no reads.

  2. I think you're correct in your assessment that he most likely had AA, KK or AK and it's too expensive to set mine and too risky to stack-off here. The only consideration is if this player is balancing his 3/4 betting range to include some light holdings/bluffs, but I think at these stakes against a relatively nitty, known TAG, it's a safe fold. Just think about how much money your 3-bet-fold saved you if the flop brought a Jack high.

    I'd be interested to hear if anyone thought a flat or 5-bet shove here was a good play...


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