Tuesday, November 17, 2009

What would you do? #24

BTN is a 14/7, 75% cbet with 37% attempt to steal in a fairly extensive history (150+ hands).

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/371149
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $110.35
CO: $52.15
BTN: $50.00
SB: $60.55
BB: $65.70
UTG: $87.50
UTG+1: $9.00
MP1: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with 4h 4d
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) Qc 5c 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.25) Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
Going to take a stab here. The club draw is there and the straight just got there. BTN has been very passive to this point, with position.

River: ($9.25) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $15, Hero ????
This is like the WORST card in the deck for me. Any other card is easy to get away. I make my set. Do you call the $10 raise? I waffled quite a bit here. I'm getting ~3 to 1 to make the call here.

Click to see results

Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $10

Final Pot: $39.25
Hero shows 4h 4d (three of a kind, Fours)
BTN shows 9c Td (two pair, Tens and Nines)
Hero wins $37.30
(Rake: $1.95)


  1. I dunno, man. I would've folded. It just seemed too likely that he was running down a flush draw. Nice call.

  2. I concur...a tight player playing passively and then 3x-ing your value-bet on the end? I think 2 pair is the worst he'll ever have here.

  3. getting around 3-1, I don't think I could fold.

    If he has it, it probably a good raise size.. if he doesn't have it, it is a terrible raise size.

  4. In retrospect, I should have checked / called him. First, I was surprised with his holdings. I didn't put a VPIP 14 to be calling PF with the hand he had.

    Obviously I wasn't sure about this hand. However, what 2 club holding hands are in a 14's range? Moreover, given the board, what would he have where he wouldn't be raising / RRing on the flop / turn? If he has AcKc and overcalled the button, GG sir. He can't have AcQc (Qc is on the board). AcJc is a possibility, but I have to imagine he's raising the turn, if not the flop - particularly in position. AcTc, same story, but on the turn he's raising. KcTc / KcJc are possibilities. The question I asked myself, though, is: Is a 14 VPIP calling an EP raise with marginal holdings (that he wouldn't even limp himself)... not to mention get heads up with the raiser?

    I filed a note that he's able raise the river without the nuts... a pretty advanced play for 50NL.

  5. *Definitely* a marginal call. I was 50/50, but the $10 raise into a $30 pot was too tempting to lay down. Had he shoved, I would have auto-folded. Had he raised $20-30, auto-fold. $10? Perhaps I'm exploitable, but it seemed like a reasonable price for a showdown.

  6. I think there are a lot of suited connectors in his range that cold-call pre-flop, such as 6c7c, 10cJc, etc. Remember he is on the button so he's going to be playing a lot more than 14% of his hands here. I'd venture to say that he's playing at least 20% of his hands which includes most suited connectors.

    Does anyone subscribe to the belief that a 3x on the river here is scarier than an overbet? I think this guy actually thought he was value raising you here and not bluffing...


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