Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Statistical anomalies

I'm trying to keep in tune with the 4 part set of postings on pre- and post- game preparation by going through my overall known starting hands, something I do 1-2 times / month. Here are some findings that I thought I'd share...

While reviewing known starting hand logs for 50NL / 50PL, I found that I am a HUGE winner with AA and KK - each is worth about 4.3 BB / hand. QQ is worth about 2.18 BB / hand.

What is weird is that AKo is my 7th winning-est hand showing a worth of .65 BB / hand, yet AKs is 2nd losing-est hand, worth about -0.68 BB / hand... What that says to me is I'm overplaying my AKs.

Also interesting to me is that TT is a pretty big loser for me, 8th worst on the list, at -0.31 BB / hand. I can more or less chalk that anomaly up to getting stacked at my only 100NL venture for a full 100BBs...

The only other pocket pair on the loser list is 33, with a -0.15 loss rate, but in net dollar amount, hardly worth the mention at a total loss of $12.53.

Surprising to me, though, is that I have a bunch of big losers with suited connectors. T9s, 87s, JTs, QTs, make up the major portion of my net $$$ lost. (I can include AKs in that list as well.) I need to look into how I'm misplaying suited connectors - yet two of my top fifteen net money makers are 76s, 42s and 86s, which nearly cancel out the above losses... (which means I will continue to play suited connectors aggressively).

Looking at overall session results, my sessions won % is less than 50%, yet I am a net positive winning player... Kinda weird, but I think that the issue is when I win a session, I win a "large" session, whereas when I lose a session, the loss may be less than a buy in... losses are contained by stop losses, whereas wins are unfettered.

Finally, expanding my field to include 25NL / 25PL, I was hunting around and looking at my VPIP / PFR numbers and noticed that I am a strong winner in 25PL, and a break-even player in 25NL:

Limit Hands Hands Won Sessions Sessions Won Amount Won BB/100
$0.25 NL 45,942 7,673 (16.70%) 430 194 (45.12%) $12.67 0.06
$0.25 PL 10,142 1,629 (16.06%) 104 62 (59.62%) $807.49 15.92

Kinda weird...

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